Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Breeders' Cup Recap

We hit three races out of eight for the two days with a triple ($144), and two exactas ($13.40 and $47.60)

Usually, if you hit one race during Breeders' Cup you will be profitable, but I lost $200 after all was said and done. Clueless in the turf races, betting against the Europeans figuring that the turf would be too hard.

Of course, I never figured Curlin to lose to the Europeans. It must have been the track which I hated. Curlin could never lose to Tiago on a dirt track.

Weather was wonderful, personalities were fun, but I really hated the track surface that acted like a turf course. In retrospect, I'm surprised at how well I did in finding three winning races given the surface.

Hope you had fun.

Mr. X

Friday, October 24, 2008

Breeders' Cup Doghouse Posted for Saturday, October 25

I have posted the last five races for the Breeders' Cup card. Very difficult, and it only takes one race to make a profit for the day.

As usual, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the Doghouse Confidential or go to the Racing Calendar.

We hit two of three winners today which is a feat in itself even though short-priced. We did hit one of the three spot plays with the exacta of Zenyatta over Cocoa Beach. Broke even for the day.

These are the best and the most beautiful horses in the world. Have fun and good luck!

Mr. X

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Breeder's Cup Spot Plays for Ladies Day Friday

Probably the most difficult cards of the year. It is very easy to lose all the races. But you can make good money winning one or two races, so don't be discouraged.

You are supposed to start slow, to conserve your bankroll for 14 races. But the very first race is extremely chaotic, and I don't like the favorite. Based on my energy distribution numbers thus far at Santa Anita, closers are winning everything (meaning their times not their running lines). So here is what I will bet to start things off.

3rd Race

All of my horses have good energy distribution times and closing times with the exception of Dearest Trickski who has the best final time and is included. Let it ride!

$1 Tri Box: 3-6-8-9-13 = $60


10 Stardom Bound tough to go against, syn specialist, good closing time, %E
4 Sky Diva from the east, one to beat, but no fake dirt
8 CS Silk dangerous speed, could take all, Alb choice
6 Van Lear Rose looks lesser from WO, but very good closing time

$5 Exbx: 4-8-10 = $30
$1 Tri: 4-8-10/4-8-6-10/4-8-6-10 = $18


1 Zenyatta too much for these, too tough, wins another
3 Cocoa Beach seems to get better, do different things, good work on syn

$20 Ex: 1-3 = $20
$10 Ex: 3-1 = $10

I will likely post some spot plays for Saturday's card. Check back.

Good luck, and let's have a safe and successful Breeder's Cup Double Day.

Mr. X

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Final Saratoga Tally

I went into the final day on Labor Day with a plus $400 for the Saratoga meet. Given the way I bet, that is very good for me, as I am always trying to hit the big one at the expense of covering my bets. This year the rolling doubles and pk3's really helped me in that I could now bet favorites in doubles and cover in the second leg with exacta's, etc. I hit a number of doubles and savers which obviously helped the bottom line. In past years, I probably would have passed on short-priced favorites in the win pool.

Unfortunately on Monday, the trainers, jockeys, and the horses didn't read the Doghouse, so I took the worst beating of the meet. The day was capped by the 2 year old Hopeful when Munnings genuflected at the gate, and Cribnote started to go downtown for a drink instead of making the turn. Amazingly, he took a left at the grandstand and came on the way, way, way outside for 2nd.

So the bottom line for the Saratoga meet was minus $150. There aren't too many people that can turn a $400 profit into a $150 loss in one day.

We had some very good winners this meet. We just have to keep doing it.

Hope you had fun. I will post Spot Plays for Belmont on occasion. Remember winning isn't everthing.

Mr. X

Monday, September 1, 2008

Last Saratoga Doghouse Posted Monday, September 1

I have posted the last Doghouse for the Saratoga season closing today.

Had a very good day with last Friday's Doghouse. Hit numerous small triples and exactas, etc. Did hit a $51 exacta 10 times. Thank you Nick Zito for the 24-1 shot that finished second in the exacta.

Now positive for the meet. Today is the make or break day. We'll see. I'm not counting my chickens.

As always, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the Doghouse Confidential red button or go to the Racing Calendar and look for today's date.

Good luck. Hope you had fun this season. It's about having a good time.

Mr. X

Friday, August 29, 2008

Twilight Doghouse Posted for Friday, August 29

I have just posted the Doghouse for the twilight racing card today, with the first post at 2:45 pm.

I am now officially in negative territory since the very first days of the meet. Have to do well today. I have had winners and exactas on the Doghouse, but not the top choices and not what I bet.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Doghouse Posted for Thursday, August 28

I have posted the Doghouse for today. Too many maidens again, so take it easy.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Doghouse will be posted for Thursday, August 28

The Doghouse will be posted but it may be late around or after 10 am.

Got killed today with all the maidens.

Mr. X

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Wednesday's Doghouse Posted, August 27

I have posted the Doghouse for Wednesday at Meet Mr. X or the Racing Calendar.

Way too many maiden races that become just statistical guessing games.

Close to some big hits, but no cigar. Have to keep trying. Still positive for the meet.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Monday, August 25, 2008

Doghouse to be Posted for Wednesday, August 27

Couldn't bet our Derby horse, Colonel John, in the Travers because he had never won on dirt, and he didn't even train on it. What a race!

Visionaire was another horse that we bet during the Triple Crown, and he looks really good as a sprinter.

Been losing on Friday and Saturday but won on Sunday. Couldn't hit a $3000 payoff on the Grand Slam on Sunday. Won again on Monday. Still positive for the meet.

Will post on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning before 10 am. Great weather!

Mr. X

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Kings Bishop and Travers Stakes, Saturday, August 23

Two great races, among my favorites of the year and certainly my favorites at Saratoga:

Race 10 Kings Bishop

8 J Be K - set track record as two year old here, working well, numbers say will prefer 7f
7 Golden Spikes - shipper from Calder, class, good chance to grab part, %E good for 7f
1 Kodiak Kowboy - done nothing wrong, Jones knows how to train, good works, likes Spa, may prefer 6f

Exbx: 1-7-8 Exbx: 7-8 Ex: 8-7

Race 11 Travers

8 Harlem Rocker - best final time, looks like improving for Pletcher, but inexperienced, only raced against small fields
9 Mambo in Seattle - another improving, good %E, excellent race here, one to beat
5 Macho Again - great race here, good fight, traffic last, but closing time at limit, may not want longer
11 Pyro - big closer, looked to hang last, needs to stay close, not convinced that he wants 10f
6 Cool Coal Man - Zito, raced w Big Brown last, could get piece

Exbx: 5-8-9 Exbx: 8-9 Tri: 8-9/5-6-8-9-11/5-6-8-9-11

Good luck and have fun!

Mr. X

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Doghouse Posted for Friday, August 22

The Doghouse Confidential has been posted. As always, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red box or go to the Racing Calendar at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.

Lost a little this weekend so I have to get back on track. Still positive for the meet.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Doghouse Confidential to be Posted for Friday, August 22

I will post a Doghouse for tomorrow either late tonight or early tomorrow.

Sunday's Spot Play got in trouble, but he wasn't going to win anyway. Bet down from 12-1 to about 5-1 so I wasn't the only one who liked him to repeat.

Get it back tomorrow.

Mr. X

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Spot Play for Sunday, August 17

In Race 3, we have 2 Skills Coach who broke his maiden here at $27 which we had.

My numbers say he has a good chance to repeat. He has the best closing time and good energy distribution. He should sit behind the speed.

2 Skills Coach to win.

Had every winner and eight of nine exactas on the Doghouse yesterday, but I lost big. You need to bet them right.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Doghouse Posted for Today- Saturday, August 16

Just posted the Doghouse Confidential for today.

Some bad horses in some bad races. The later races are better.

Go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential box. Or go the racing calendar under today's date.

Good luck! Still winning.

Mr. X

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Good Day Yesterday with Spot Plays

Did well yesterday with our spot plays.

In the 3rd, Loose Leaf ($22) won, but our exacta horse came third so we didn't cash. I should have had a small win bet on Loose Leaf at 10-1, but I'm not that smart.

In the 8th, our horse was scratched so there was no bet. Unfortunately, the other two came in and the exacta paid $15.40.

In the 9th race, we did have the exacta which came back a light $106, but we'll take it. Had it five times.

Hope some of you cashed.

Mr. X

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Spot Plays, Wednesday, August 13

The weather has been horrendous and changing from race to race. Tomorrow should be better.

Here are some spot plays:

3rd Race - Tough Race

2 Extreme Supreme - right spot, best closing time and %E; Ward 3/4 here, 30%W-50%$
4 Loose Leaf - Had physical problems, but major close last year, needs to stay close; McPeek
6 Ravel - ship in, layoff for Pletcher/JVel; hard to ignore

The bet: $20 Ex: 2-4, $10 Ex: 4-2, $5 Exbx: 2-6

8th Race

2B Callmetony - Levine 35-60%, best final time, needs to break well from outside, 7f?
3 Starforaday - good closer, good final time, Prado here, major work, but needs to get off rail
6 Premium Wine - needs to stay close, disappointed this year, may not want wet, JVel leaves

The bet: $20 Ex: 2-3, $10 Ex: 3-2, $5 Exbx: 2-6 (no bet if 2B scratched); DD: 2B/3-6-8

9th Race

3 Doremifasollatido - best closing time, %E, needs to stretch 5f to 6.5f, 4 works, Jerkens 22-56%
8 Mani Bhavan - another stretcher, best final time, but outside, may want lead, Klesaris/Garcia
6 Garden District - been 6f, Pletcher/JVel, may not want longer, but has pace edge
4 Simplify - Bridg/Ass 28-52%, finished right behind 6, 4 works, may not want longer

The bet: $10 Exbx: 3/6-8, $1 Tri: 3-6-8/3-4-6-8/3-4-6-8

Always check my numbers.

Good luck! Still winning. Had two good ones on Sunday's Doghouse.

Mr. X

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Doghouse Posted for Sunday, August 10

Posted the Doghouse, but it is very difficult to handicap when the weather changes from race to race, and you may be facing a monsoon.

Stay alert and look for overlays.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Friday, August 8, 2008

Omen from Gods of Racing; Next Doghouse on Sunday, August 10

Friday's date was 08-08-08. Some say that the date means infinity.

I handicapped the Doghouse for wet, and the weather for the first two races was perfect. In fact, my wife asked me if I was sticking with the Doghouse because of the good weather and the good to fast track.

After two races, I was down exactly $80.

Then a light rain, heavier rain, monsoon, hail, and rain again. The track looked like a river. Then the sun again. But the track was washed out around the far turn, and the card was canceled.

Maybe the Racing Gods saw that I lost exactly $80, and I was going to lose "infinitely" more so they figured the only way to save me was to cancel the card.

We live to play again on Sunday.

Mr. X

Doghouse Posted for Friday, August 8

The Doghouse is available at Meet Mr. X or on the calendar.

Handicapped for wet, but we really don't know how bad the weather is going to affect the track. Pay attention to the Grand Slam and the later races if all of the races are off the turf. There may be some good overlays when that happens.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Career Day Last Sunday; Doghouse to be Posted for Friday, August 8

For those of you paying attention, last Sunday's Doghouse had six winners on top out of seven races paying $27, $12.80, $8.60, $7.40, $4.10, and $3. Emailed the $27 winner to Track Facts Live (local tv show) on Sunday.

Also hit two Daily Doubles, the Pick4 for half of $810, three exactas for $120, $55.50, and $26.20, and the Grand Slam for $38.60 ten times.

Made over $1100 betting conservatively. Now plus $700 for the meet.

I will post another Doghouse for tomorrow, Friday. Just don't expect the same results!

Mr. X

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Sunday, August 3 Doghouse Posted

I have posted the latest Doghouse. Go to Meet Mr. X and click on the Doghouse Confidential red box or find the date on the Racing Calendar.

Hit two of three Spot Plays on Wednesday singling the favorite in the jump race with our horse. Then hit the triple twice in the late race. Missed the Grand Slam when the favorite in the third leg ran out. Good day, though.

Very tough card today with anyone winning any race. If you find value, go for it.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Doghouse to be Posted for Sunday, August 3

I will post the first Saratoga Doghouse Confidential for tomorrow, sometime around 10 am.

I hope you have been following the spot plays as I hit 2 of 3 on Wednesday and made some money!

Mr. X

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Spot Plays, Wednesday, July 30

Here are some spot plays that I will make today:

Race 2

8 Akilina - should be the favorite; towers over these with danger from firsters; my odds are even money or less. Single in doubles, pik 3's, and pik 4.

Race 4 - Infirmiry Special

2 He's a Lumberjack - by default; trainer 50% win - 50% in $ 2nd off; +Maragh, looks like one of few that are alive, but hasn't won in two years.

4 Brooker D - one to beat, will be chasing; 4/6 in $ this year, 7/11 in $ at dist.

The Bet: maybe win on 2 at 4-1; at least $10 exbx 2-4

Race 9

7 Talking Treasure - chance on best, good works; 3/4 at dist, won at Spa; Baker 27% win-59% in $ here.

1 Ice Cool Kitty - beat top one long ago; won at Spa, likes dist, 9/17 lifetime, Dutrow 25-55%; +Prado

5 Morning Gallop - good B's, doesn't win, Prado leaves?

The Bet: $2 exbx 1-5-7, $20 ex 7-1, $10 ex 1-7.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Friday, July 25, 2008

First Race Friday, July 25

Neil Howard is a dangerous trainer shipping into Saratoga. He is generally better with 9f runners, but I'll take my chances here:

6 Ship's Piano - layoff, stepping up, working well.

The bet: $20 Win 6; $2 Exbx 2-5-6.

Better weather today. We collected on our first bet at the meet. Has to be a good sign.

Good luck.

Mr. X

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Late Scratch Thursday Feature

My top horse was scratched, so the bet is now as follows:

$20 Ex 3-7, $10 Ex 7-3, $2 Ex 3-7/6

Good luck again.

Mr. X

Thursday's Spa Feature

More rain and a critical scratch in the two year old Sanford:

5 Bullion Cache - good connections, best speed, looks to be in good spot, Pletcher/Vel but Alb leaves; Pletcher 23%

3 Desert Party - cost $2.1 million, Harty, only been 4.5f, good Spa work, rumored to be very good

7 Phosphorescent - been 6f, good times, Alb here, West Point, but Romans 0/16 here

6 Vineyard Haven - Frankel purchase, last at Calder, Cast, Frankel 0/3

Here's what I will bet: $10 Exbx 3-5, $2 Ex 3-5 / 3-5-6-7

Good luck!

Mr. X

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Opening Day Saratoga Spot Plays

Looks like rain for the Holy Day so take it easy.

Here is likely what I will bet depending on how bad the track condition is:

Race 3

4 Golden Age - chance on best, good trainer, needs to get back to maiden win, cost $450K, excellent works, best closing time - but apprentice jock

1 Accredit - one to beat, experienced, many B's in the 90's, but loves 2nd, major class edge on rest of field, rail likely not good, but may be okay in the 3rd race

Bet: maybe a $20 win bet on 4 if 4-1 or better; $10 Exbox: 1-4, $2 Ex: 1-4 / 1-4-7

Race 9

1 Ocean Colors - great mom, looks experienced, Ass 32%, five works, but inside could be problem at that time of day

7 Mine All Mine - longshot, good trainer who owns this one, major work at Spa

2 Mani Bhavan - ran away in last, back in 11 days, good trainer, gets J Vel

3 Collegiate - Prado here, good pace, working well, Team Valor, chance

Bet: $2 Ex: 1-7 / 1-2-3-7; $10 Exbx: 1-7; $2 DD 1-7 / 8-10-11

Race 10 - wide open, any dog can win, so go long

8 Spooky Muldar - 10 yr old, horse for course, distance specialist, layoff after claim, dropping, likes wet

10 Introspect - dropping, consistent, gets J Vel, 8 yr old, looks to get a piece, Gullo 9%

11 Steelix - Ziadie good FLA trainer, ships, brings jock, wet okay, good longshot chance

Bet: $2 Exbx: 8-10-11 (also all in late double in 9th)

Good luck and take it easy. There is a long way to go.

Mr. X

Monday, July 21, 2008

Upcoming Saratoga

It is going to be a rough two weeks with other priorities.

I will post some feature races and some races that I will bet that I think have value.

Good luck at the Spa!

Mr. X

Friday, July 11, 2008

Father's Day Present

Thought you would like to see my Father's Day present from my two daughters, one son-in-law, twin grandchildren, and Mrs. X.

See you at the Spa. Won't be long now.

Mr. X

Friday, June 6, 2008

Belmont Stakes 2008 Doghouse Confidential Posted

A very bad betting race. You can get the analysis at Meet Mr. X, with a click on the Doghouse Confidential red button.

Good luck. Maybe this is the Triple Crown year.

Mr. X

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

No Preakness Analysis to be Posted

Because of competing priorities, I will not post a Preakness analysis for this weekend.

It appears to be a bad race anyway, unless you can bet a straight exacta with Big Brown on top. On the other hand, after the Derby, you are probably better off without my help.

Best to all and let's hope everyone comes back safe.

Mr. X

Friday, May 2, 2008

Kentucky Derby 2008 Doghouse Here

Having trouble posting the Doghouse for the Derby so just click here.

Sorry for the inconvenience.

Mr. X

Kentucky Derby 2008 Doghouse Confidential Posted

The time has finally arrived for our selections.

Rain, mud, polytracks, and mediocre horses won't stop us from betting our good money. Just take it easy.

You can access the analysis by clicking on the Doghouse Confidential red box at Meet Mr. X.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Last Kentucky Derby 2008 Posted

Here is the last installment of the contenders based on energy distribution and last three furlong time.

Don't forget to check back on Derby Day for the Doghouse Confidential final selections and betting strategies.

Have fun!

Mr. X

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Kentucky Derby Analysis 2008 Updated

I have updated the analysis after this weekend's races. You can start at Kentucky Derby Analysis 2008 here.

It appears that the only horses making the grade are those running on artificial surfaces which is troubling. Nothing like more complications.

Let's see how Pyro does this weekend.

Mr. X

Monday, April 7, 2008

Doghouse Archives Updated

I have updated some links at the Doghouse Archives and added some new links for the Derby.

The most notable link addition is YouTube where you can view many of the prep races.

I will be updating the list this week, based on last weekend's races.

Mr. X

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Kentucky Derby Analysis 2008 Posted

I have posted the first installment of horses meeting our criteria that we believe can go beyond 9f to the 10f Kentucky Derby.

As always, it is a bit more difficult than that, but we will have fun trying.

This weekend, there are some serious races that will hopefully add some clarity to the race.

See the analysis here at Kentucky Derby Analysis 2008.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Triple Crown Analysis for 2007 Posted

Yes, I am behind after a trip to Florida, along with three visits to Tampa Bay Downs where I contributed to the local economy.

I have posted the 2007 Triple Crown Analysis (finally), and I will be posting the first installment of our Derby contenders by the end of the week.

Great races this weekend that should give some clarity to the Derby picture (or not).

Mr. X

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Beginner's Guide or Lazy Man's Guide to the Ten Cent Superfecta

I have posted a very easy way to play the Ten Cent Superfecta.

It really is fun, and you can't lose a great deal. Good for beginners, good for a crowd, and good for a lazy handicapper.

Check it out in the Doghouse Archives. Find the Archives link at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page or click here.

Have fun!

Mr. X

Happy and Healthy New Year to All

Here is wishing you a happy and healthy new year.

It has been a great 2007 with my twin grandchildren celebrating their first birthday. We also welcomed a beautiful great niece into this world this year.

Good health and good luck to all.