Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Spot Plays, Wednesday, July 30

Here are some spot plays that I will make today:

Race 2

8 Akilina - should be the favorite; towers over these with danger from firsters; my odds are even money or less. Single in doubles, pik 3's, and pik 4.

Race 4 - Infirmiry Special

2 He's a Lumberjack - by default; trainer 50% win - 50% in $ 2nd off; +Maragh, looks like one of few that are alive, but hasn't won in two years.

4 Brooker D - one to beat, will be chasing; 4/6 in $ this year, 7/11 in $ at dist.

The Bet: maybe win on 2 at 4-1; at least $10 exbx 2-4

Race 9

7 Talking Treasure - chance on best, good works; 3/4 at dist, won at Spa; Baker 27% win-59% in $ here.

1 Ice Cool Kitty - beat top one long ago; won at Spa, likes dist, 9/17 lifetime, Dutrow 25-55%; +Prado

5 Morning Gallop - good B's, doesn't win, Prado leaves?

The Bet: $2 exbx 1-5-7, $20 ex 7-1, $10 ex 1-7.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Friday, July 25, 2008

First Race Friday, July 25

Neil Howard is a dangerous trainer shipping into Saratoga. He is generally better with 9f runners, but I'll take my chances here:

6 Ship's Piano - layoff, stepping up, working well.

The bet: $20 Win 6; $2 Exbx 2-5-6.

Better weather today. We collected on our first bet at the meet. Has to be a good sign.

Good luck.

Mr. X

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Late Scratch Thursday Feature

My top horse was scratched, so the bet is now as follows:

$20 Ex 3-7, $10 Ex 7-3, $2 Ex 3-7/6

Good luck again.

Mr. X

Thursday's Spa Feature

More rain and a critical scratch in the two year old Sanford:

5 Bullion Cache - good connections, best speed, looks to be in good spot, Pletcher/Vel but Alb leaves; Pletcher 23%

3 Desert Party - cost $2.1 million, Harty, only been 4.5f, good Spa work, rumored to be very good

7 Phosphorescent - been 6f, good times, Alb here, West Point, but Romans 0/16 here

6 Vineyard Haven - Frankel purchase, last at Calder, Cast, Frankel 0/3

Here's what I will bet: $10 Exbx 3-5, $2 Ex 3-5 / 3-5-6-7

Good luck!

Mr. X

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Opening Day Saratoga Spot Plays

Looks like rain for the Holy Day so take it easy.

Here is likely what I will bet depending on how bad the track condition is:

Race 3

4 Golden Age - chance on best, good trainer, needs to get back to maiden win, cost $450K, excellent works, best closing time - but apprentice jock

1 Accredit - one to beat, experienced, many B's in the 90's, but loves 2nd, major class edge on rest of field, rail likely not good, but may be okay in the 3rd race

Bet: maybe a $20 win bet on 4 if 4-1 or better; $10 Exbox: 1-4, $2 Ex: 1-4 / 1-4-7

Race 9

1 Ocean Colors - great mom, looks experienced, Ass 32%, five works, but inside could be problem at that time of day

7 Mine All Mine - longshot, good trainer who owns this one, major work at Spa

2 Mani Bhavan - ran away in last, back in 11 days, good trainer, gets J Vel

3 Collegiate - Prado here, good pace, working well, Team Valor, chance

Bet: $2 Ex: 1-7 / 1-2-3-7; $10 Exbx: 1-7; $2 DD 1-7 / 8-10-11

Race 10 - wide open, any dog can win, so go long

8 Spooky Muldar - 10 yr old, horse for course, distance specialist, layoff after claim, dropping, likes wet

10 Introspect - dropping, consistent, gets J Vel, 8 yr old, looks to get a piece, Gullo 9%

11 Steelix - Ziadie good FLA trainer, ships, brings jock, wet okay, good longshot chance

Bet: $2 Exbx: 8-10-11 (also all in late double in 9th)

Good luck and take it easy. There is a long way to go.

Mr. X

Monday, July 21, 2008

Upcoming Saratoga

It is going to be a rough two weeks with other priorities.

I will post some feature races and some races that I will bet that I think have value.

Good luck at the Spa!

Mr. X

Friday, July 11, 2008

Father's Day Present

Thought you would like to see my Father's Day present from my two daughters, one son-in-law, twin grandchildren, and Mrs. X.

See you at the Spa. Won't be long now.

Mr. X