Saturday, November 3, 2012

Breeders Cup Late Pick 4 for Saturday

Had the $36 winner in the marathon, but still lost for the day. Almost had the exacta a few times as well. Beholder ran to form, but Kaui Katie just wasn't good enough.

I see more favorites winning today although that rarely happens at the Breeders Cup races. Best chances: Groupie Doll, Shanghai Bobby, Point of Entry, and Wise Dan. Hard to single anyone, however.

Here is my late $1 Pick 4:

9th: 1,12
10th: 6,7,11
11th: 2,3,6
12th: 2,4,5,10

Total: $72

Good luck!

Mr. X

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Breeder's Cup Friday Spot Plays

Don't know if I will have time to study and post for Saturday, but I do like some of the races on Friday:

Race 4: Exacta box: 3 Merit Man and a longshot 6 Hazardous. Numbers say that they will run away from the field.

Race 7: 1 Beholder has a significant pace advantage. Will take off and need to stretch out to the 8.5f distance. 8 Kaui Katie needs to stretch out as well, but was unbelievable at the Spa and her next race. From connections of Rachel Alexandra. Will bet an exacta box.

$1 Pick 4:

6th: 3-5-6-10
7th: 1-8
8th: 4-9-10
9th: 5-6-8

Total: $72

Good luck! At least we don't have to worry about the weather.

Mr. X

Monday, October 1, 2012

Saratoga Epilogue

Given personal commitments, I didn't think that I would get to the track for the final week. But alas, my company left early, so I was able to go both on Sunday and Monday. Lost $25 on Sunday.

But on Monday, I almost didn't go. Yet I had to have one more shot at the greatest race track in the world.

Turns out I hit a $42 quinella ten times, a triple and 10 cent superfecta in another later race, a $20 Grand Slam and the Late Pick 4 for $1. Won over $900 which put a major dent in my losses.

On another day, I had a $10 double which would have paid $100 per ticket or $500. Unfortunately, I had the only race where the winner was disqualified at the meet.

Still lost for the meet, but not much. Remember, you don't have to bet or win to have a great time at the Spa!

Sorry for the lack of sheets this year. It really has been a busy six weeks.

Mr. X

Saturday, August 25, 2012

Late Pick Four, Saturday, August 25

Have been hitting the Pick 4 regularly. I'm putting in the following Pick 4 ending with the Travers:

9th: 2,4
10th: 2,3,5,7,8
11th: 3
12th: 5,6,10

$1 Pick 4: $30

Travers, Saturday, August 25

I think that 10 Nonios looks to be in a good spot with Johnny V. He'll have to work out a trip from the 10 hole, and in truth, he may not want the 10f. On the other hand, he is improving and he has the best final time from the 9f Haskell behind Paynter. Remember that the Haskell was his first race on dirt, so maybe he has more room for improvement.

The horses to beat are 6 Alpha and 5 Street Life. Alpha had everything his own way in the Jim Dandy on a wet track. I don't see him getting the lead today, but he will stalk. Chad Brown has tried everything to get Street Life into the race earlier. He wants to win here at the Spa. Maybe his win in the Curlin Stakes here hints at an improving horse who will want the 10f distance.

Win: 10
Exacta box: 5-6-10
Exacta box: 10/5-6

Good luck!

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Doghouse Posted for Sunday, August 19, 2012

I have posted another abbreviated Doghouse with the Pick 4's.

Go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Too many turf and too many maiden races. Later races are best.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Friday, August 17, 2012

Abbreviated Doghouse Confidential Posted, Friday, August 17, 2012

I have posted an abbreviated Doghouse listing the horses in my preference order, but no betting strategies. Double A means most preferred.

Go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

All races are handicapped for fast and firm so if it rains later in the day and we get a monsoon, you should forget the sheet.

Have been hitting the Pick 4's very well for the now $0.50 bet. That bet has been very profitable. Only down $300 and moving to the positive side.

Good luck.

Mr. X

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Correction on Pick 4

Should be 2 instead of 1 in the 9th race.


Late Pick 4, Wednesday, August 8

Will be playing the Late Pick 4 for $0.50 for a total of $62.50, singling My Miss Aurelia in the 8th:

7th: 1,4,5,6,9
8th: 6
9th: 2,3,6,9,10

10th: 2,3,4,8,9

Looking for a couple of long ones.

Mr. X

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Doghouse Confidential for Sunday, August 5 Posted

Posted the first Doghouse of the season. Very tough card.

Been close on some big Pick 4's but down now.

As usual, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button for today's sheet.

Watch the weather, scratches, and the also eligible's. Take it easy today.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Doghouse Confidential for Sunday Will Be Posted

Check back tomorrow for the first Doghouse Confidential of 2012.

Very difficult card and hoping for no rain.

Will try to post by 10 am, but will definitely post by 11:30 am.

Mr. X

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Wednesday Late Pick 4, August 1

Hit both Pick 4's on Friday and another on Saturday. Now even again.

Here is my late $0.50 Pick 4:

7th: 2,3,5,6,8,10,11
8th: 3,7
9th: 1,3,5
10th: 2,3,6,7,10

Total: $105

Looking for a big one!

Mr. X

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Saratoga Spot Plays - Wednesday, July 25

Well, it's that time of year again at the beautiful Spa. Getting off to a fast start losing two days in a row although had a couple of good hits.

Here are a couple of spot plays:

1st: Usually I don't bet a deep closer in a 6f race because the model says that the winner needs to be around 3 lengths or so from the lead. However, 7 Glynisthemenace (5-1, Jacobson claim) is in with some very questionable cheap speed so I'll bet a win ticket on him. Then I'll put him in an exacta box with the other closer 8 World Power (6-1, Dominguez) and finally 2 Gabrilicious (8-1). Should be good payoffs.

2nd: 5 Hillswick (2-1, Jacobson claim back)  has the best speed but is zero for seven at the distance. Still he holds a significant pace advantage over these. Has to hold on. The main danger is 1 Maui Mark (5-2) who hasn't raced on dirt since Santa Anita in March. Will bet a larger Jacobson double: 7-5 and a lesser 7-1 saver.

Good luck and look to the blog for spot plays and when the Doghouse Confidential is posted.

Mr. X

Saturday, June 9, 2012

No Belmont Analysis Posted

Well, everybody knows the news by now. I really wasn't too excited about betting the race before, but now I think we have a chance to cash.

Many question marks, particularly who can get the 12 furlongs, now the weather. I think it is a four horse race unless it rains incessantly and the track is sealed.

Union Rags made my numbers for the Derby, won here last year, and deserves another chance with Johnny V. Has to stay out of trouble and keep cool as he heats up at race time. Street Life has a pace advantage and is on the rail. Look for him to be closer to the pace. Likes Belmont. Dullahan has been working well, but hasn't really won on dirt and closed passing tired horses in the Derby. Paynter could surprise but doesn't have the look of a horse that wants to go that far. If on the lead uncontested, he could keep going.

Barring some monsoon, I will bet the exacta: Union Rags and Street Life, then include the other two. May bet all four in a triple box and a superfecta box. Union Rags looks to me to be the winner.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Friday, May 18, 2012

Preakness 2012 Posted

An interesting and good betting race.

I have a major question mark, but I can't ignore my best number horse in the Derby, 8 Daddy Knows Best

Read all about it at Meet Mr. X. Just click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck. It is time we collected.

Mr. X

Friday, May 4, 2012

Kentucky Derby 2012 Posted

Here we go again. We don't know the weather with any certainty at all, but that doesn't stop me from doing my analyses. If it rains really hard, forget about my picks.

10 Daddy Knows Best looks to be in the right spot with a clean trip from the outside, running down the speed late. He has been working great at Churchill.

See my analyses at Meet Mr. X. Just click on the Doghouse Confidential red button. I have also included two charts from my appearance on OTB-TV "Trackfacts."

Good luck. Let's cash again.

Mr. X

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Mr. X's Derby Contenders on "Trackfacts Live"

Mr. X will talk by phone about his system of separating Derby Contenders on "Trackfacts Live" with Tom Amello and Nick Kling, Sunday morning (9:30 am) on the OTB channel in the Capital District."

Every two weeks or so, I will update the contenders on the show, up until the Derby.

Let's find a winner this year!

Mr. X