Sunday, September 6, 2020

Derby Final Thoughts

 Obviously, we were very disappointed that Tiz the Law, the hometown horse, didn't win. He ran his race and just couldn't get by Authentic who was a throwout as not meeting my numbers as being able to get the 10f. It could be that Tiz doesn't like Churchill Downs, the only two losses of his career.

I started in 2000 with my numbers categorizing horses by the median energy distribution and last three furlong time. Authentic was red, meaning he did not meet my numbers, i.e. couldn't get the 10f. Leaving out Mine That Bird (didn't calculate his numbers but he qualified) and Super Saver who was yellow (both ran on sealed tracks); there was only one horse who won that didn't meet my numbers: Big Brown. He turned out to be just better than the rest of the horses that year and overpowered them. I did get some satisfaction in the Belmont when he refused to go the mile and one-half Belmont.

This year, we won't get to see Authentic run the mile and one-half as the Belmont was already run at the nine furlong distance. However, barring some injury or other problems, I think it is very possible that Authentic could be a super horse in the future, likely even better next year if he runs. Keep a close eye on him!

Friday, September 4, 2020

Kentucky Derby 2020 Doghouse Posted

 It's been a crazy year, and I don't have any surprising choice for the Derby. It's 17 Tiz the Law all the way.

To see the analysis and betting strategy, click on the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.

Good luck and stay safe!

Saturday, August 8, 2020

Travers Day 2020

 Been losing for the meet but heating up recently. If you were paying attention, we hit the Pick 4 on August 2 (below). Only paid $82, but we will take it. Hit a good Grand Slam on Thursday for $212. Yesterday I was alive to four horses out of eight in the final leg of the late Pick 4, and the best I do was a third place finish. Tough at the Spa.

Today in the Travers all of the horses meet my numbers. 6 Tiz the Law looks overwhelming. He is most seasoned and has a pace edge on the field. Only way he can get beat is if 3 Uncle Chuck by Baffert is another Arrogate. Uncle Chuck is very unseasoned but Baffert doesn't send them here to be second. Depending on the odds, I will bet 6 over 3 and half as much on 3 over 6.

Here is my Grand Slam (races 8-11) bet: 7-1-5-6/3. Expect a short price. Double bet on Tiz the Law.

Here is my $0.50 Pick 5 (races 7-11) bet: 1-4-6/1-2-4-7/1-2-5/5-6/3-6= $72.

Good luck!

Sunday, August 2, 2020

Sunday, August 2 Grand Slam and Late Pick 4

Couldn't hit the Whitney with Tom's d'Etat stumbling out of the gate. Killed our Pick 4's as well.

Today, I'm betting the Grand Slam (races 6-9) and Late Pick 4 (races 7-10) presuming we don't get monsoon rains:

GS: 6-8-3-6/4    $0.50 Pk4: 2-5-8-9/3-6-8-11/6/1-2-3-8= $32 Keying the 6 Moretti in the 9th.

Good luck!

Saturday, August 1, 2020

2020 Whitney Stakes and Pick 4

Yes, I am alive and well, quarantining since March. Love the TV show, but losing for the meet thus far. Making mistakes and losing head bobs!

I don't see anyone beating 5 Tom's d'Etat. Too good for these. Look for a change of tactics on 1 By My Standards with Jose Ortiz. Only chance to win. 2 Improbable may surprise but doesn't ship well and acts up. Exacta Box: 1-5, with double bet on 5-1.

The Stakes Pick 4 (races 9-12) is always difficult. The cheaper version ($0.50): 1-5/5-6-8/2-4/2-7=$12. The more expensive: 1-5/5-6-8-10-11/2-4/2-4-6-7-9=$50.

Good luck!

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Belmont Stakes for Triple Crown Reverse, June 2020

It's been a trying spring with the coronavirus, and Mr. X has had trouble cashing bets during the pandemic. With that said, here is what I like:

1 Tap It To Win looks like a real speed horse with a good post and no real challengers on the front end. He will lead, and my numbers say he will be five lengths in front at the 6f post. He is stretching from the 8.5f to the 9f Belmont (never thought I would say that), but I think that he can easily do it. Track is lightning fast as well.

8 Tiz The Law is clearly the class and horse to beat, but my numbers don't show that he has a great advantage over some of the others. Primed and ready to go. He will be chasing the 1, and we'll see if he can overcome the speed.

4 Modernist is a dark horse stepping back from 9.5f for Mott. I give him a good chance to hit the board as he has an excellent closing time. Just has to stay close.

The bets:

Safe bet
Exacta box: 1-4-8

My bet
Exacta box: 1-8, smaller exacta keybox 1-8 with 4.

Good luck!