Breeder's Cup Late Pick 5

 Here is what I will bet with a partner. Total cost of the $0.50 bet is $240 with the picks in the order of preference. Classic is very difficult. Way to much speed in the race and really wide open. Maybe the closer in Zandon can pick up the pieces:

Travers Day Pick 5

 Hit the Pick 5 today  ($791) for only the third time at Saratoga, although had countless 4 of 5's (which don't pay).

Tomorrow's card is fantastic to watch excellent horses in five stake races ending with the Travers. Unfortunately, while great to watch championship horses, betting big favorites doesn't make you money. 

In the Travers, I like Arcangelo to beat Forte. Working since the Belmont and beat Forte, but either one could win. Should be a great race.

Here is my pick 5 for tomorrow starting with the 8th race. But don't forget the 7th with Elite Power going up against Gunite again. Should be a great race. Good luck!

Whitney Day Pick 5, Races 8-12

 Here is my Pick 5 for today, singling Cody's Wish:

Good luck!

Whitney Stakes Doghouse Posted

 The condition of the turf course will really impact the selections. I have assumed yielding and leaned on the European horses. I have handicapped races 6-10 which are all the stakes races on the card.

Let's hope Cody's Wish wins the Whitney. Just too good a story. I will be playing the Pick 4 which is races 7-10. 

Have been losing highlighted by the last July 26 Doghouse where my horse in the last race at 20-1 was interfered with yet no disqualification on the winner. Pick 5 would have paid $985!

As always, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Doghouse Posted for Wednesday, July 26

 I have finally posted my first Doghouse Confidential of the 2023 Saratoga meet. Have been losing but holding my own. Haven't hit the Pick 5 yet, but have had a few 4 of 5, along with a great deal of swearing.

As always, go to the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X. Tough card as usual so take it easy.

Good luck!

Belmont Stakes 2023

For many reasons, I'm not excited about this race. Hated the Preakness and the ridiculously slow pace. This race has a lot going on in different directions. Tapit Trice was the second favorite in the Derby whom I did not like at all. Got behind a wall of horses at the start and never recovered. Don't expect him to do any better this time even though he is being heavily touted.

I still like Forte to win although his come from behind style does not win the Belmont. But hard to ignore. Angel of Empire will get blinkers and has worked very fast since the Derby. Will be closer than his usual style coming from way behind. Generally, I do not like changes in big races, but I trust Brad Cox. Will have to love the Belmont track to win. Cox entered two other "rabbits" from his stable to keep National Treasure company on the front end. Just going to bet an exacta box with 6 Forte and 8 Angel of Empire.

Good luck! 

Preakness Pick 5, Races 9-13

 Here is the expensive  and cheaper versions of the Pick 5:

Preakness 2023

Unfortunately, this race has really fallen apart. With only 3 Mage from the Derby, we are now down to six horses with the scratch today of First Mission. It doesn't look like Mage can be beaten with this group. He needs to break okay or at least not really bad as he prone to do. 

The danger is the 1 National Treasure with Johnny Velasquez on the rail. Baffert who wants to be relevant again in the Triple Crown has been working the horse extremely fast in California. Hopefully, 4 Coffeewithchris will keep him company. The only way Mage can be beaten is if National Treasure is alone on the front end. However, National Treasure is no prize. He was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby behind Practical Move who scratched, and the rest of the California horses did nothing in the Derby. Baffert's undefeated filly in the Black-Eyed Susan as the big favorite failed badly. So you have to question the caliber of the California horses.

The only way I can see to make any money on the race is to find a closer who will follow Mage and complete the exacta. The horse I like is a Gun Runner closer trained by Asmussen in 5 Red Route One. Has raced four times in 2023 including the Arkansas Derby, the Rebel, the Southwest, and won his last ungraded stakes. Deep closer with Joel Rosario who won on him last.

There are others like 6 Perform that could be second, but I'm betting that Red Route One completes the exacta.

Safe bet:

$2 Exacta key box: 3 with 1, 5,6 = $12

My bet:

$40 Exacta: 3 over 5

$10 Exacta: 5 over 3

Good luck!

Derby Epilogue

 Not a good day at all. Too many changes and scratches. Our horse, Angel of Empire, was a solid favorite to win after Forte scratched. Terrible, uncharacteristic ride by Flavien Plat not keeping up and letting the horse go to the back of the pack. Can't win from that position. Only lost by 1.5 lengths and closing. Mage was a good horse to at least consider after being beaten by Forte in the Florida Derby. Just never did after the scratch. On to the Preakness.

Correction

 Always check my numbers. Disarm is 11 horse, not 9. That is where he will break from (his post position).

Also my suspicions were confirmed: Forte is out with a bruised foot.

Bets are the same without Forte.

Good luck!

Kentucky Derby 2023 Doghouse Confidential with Pick 5

 The day is finally here tomorrow. Many scratches have changed the complexion of the race. Be sure to look for the Pick 5 ending with the Derby at the bottom of the Doghouse.

Looks like 14 Angel of Empire for Brad Cox and Flavien Plat. Great race in the Arkansas Derby and looking to move forward with a wide sweeping move at the end just as he did at Oaklawn.

There are questions about 15 Forte who is the deserving favorite off his accomplishments to date.

As always, click on the red Doghouse Confidential button at the Meet Mr. X tab.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Kentucky Derby 2023 Probables Categorized

 As we do every year, I have characterized the horses based on their median energy distribution and last  three furlong times at or near 9f. Remember this is only a way to separate the contenders and does not even consider final times. 

It appears that the analysis for this year really doesn't help to separate the contenders. It could be that the trainers are now training horses to accelerate in the final three furlongs to give them a chance to make the 10f of the Derby.

Go to the Meet Mr. X tab and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

As always, I will be posting my analysis late Friday or early Saturday.

Good luck to all.

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda

 

On Wednesday (April 5) had the pick 5 going at Tampa. The first three legs paid $11-13. Then I singled a very difficult race. Horse bumped and weaved through the stretch to win by a head and pay $13.

In the last race on the turf for maidens, I had three horses (1,2,6) that would pay between $5-7.5K for the pick 5. There was only one horse (4) that I thought had a chance, but he had been off a full year, was working steadily since December, but the trainer was 0-13 with horses coming back in more than 90 days. So for insurance, I bet $50 to win on every other horse in the race, and $100 on the 4. Total $400 for insurance.

As the horses were coming down the stretch the 2 and 1 were fighting it out with the 6 already spent on the lead. Then a horse was flying on the outside and won easily. Turned out it was the 4 who paid $13.30. I collected $660 for a $119 profit for the day. Doesn’t seem right.

Pick 5 for $0.50 paid over $76K!

Mr. X