Here is the expensive and cheaper versions of the Pick 5:
Saturday, May 20, 2023
Friday, May 19, 2023
Unfortunately, this race has really fallen apart. With only 3 Mage from the Derby, we are now down to six horses with the scratch today of First Mission. It doesn't look like Mage can be beaten with this group. He needs to break okay or at least not really bad as he prone to do.
The danger is the 1 National Treasure with Johnny Velasquez on the rail. Baffert who wants to be relevant again in the Triple Crown has been working the horse extremely fast in California. Hopefully, 4 Coffeewithchris will keep him company. The only way Mage can be beaten is if National Treasure is alone on the front end. However, National Treasure is no prize. He was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby behind Practical Move who scratched, and the rest of the California horses did nothing in the Derby. Baffert's undefeated filly in the Black-Eyed Susan as the big favorite failed badly. So you have to question the caliber of the California horses.
The only way I can see to make any money on the race is to find a closer who will follow Mage and complete the exacta. The horse I like is a Gun Runner closer trained by Asmussen in 5 Red Route One. Has raced four times in 2023 including the Arkansas Derby, the Rebel, the Southwest, and won his last ungraded stakes. Deep closer with Joel Rosario who won on him last.
There are others like 6 Perform that could be second, but I'm betting that Red Route One completes the exacta.
$2 Exacta key box: 3 with 1, 5,6 = $12
$40 Exacta: 3 over 5
$10 Exacta: 5 over 3
Sunday, May 7, 2023
Not a good day at all. Too many changes and scratches. Our horse, Angel of Empire, was a solid favorite to win after Forte scratched. Terrible, uncharacteristic ride by Flavien Plat not keeping up and letting the horse go to the back of the pack. Can't win from that position. Only lost by 1.5 lengths and closing. Mage was a good horse to at least consider after being beaten by Forte in the Florida Derby. Just never did after the scratch. On to the Preakness.
Saturday, May 6, 2023
Always check my numbers. Disarm is 11 horse, not 9. That is where he will break from (his post position).
Also my suspicions were confirmed: Forte is out with a bruised foot.
Bets are the same without Forte.
Friday, May 5, 2023
Kentucky Derby 2023 Doghouse Confidential with Pick 5
The day is finally here tomorrow. Many scratches have changed the complexion of the race. Be sure to look for the Pick 5 ending with the Derby at the bottom of the Doghouse.
Looks like 14 Angel of Empire for Brad Cox and Flavien Plat. Great race in the Arkansas Derby and looking to move forward with a wide sweeping move at the end just as he did at Oaklawn.
There are questions about 15 Forte who is the deserving favorite off his accomplishments to date.
As always, click on the red Doghouse Confidential button at the Meet Mr. X tab.
Tuesday, May 2, 2023
Kentucky Derby 2023 Probables Categorized
As we do every year, I have characterized the horses based on their median energy distribution and last three furlong times at or near 9f. Remember this is only a way to separate the contenders and does not even consider final times.
It appears that the analysis for this year really doesn't help to separate the contenders. It could be that the trainers are now training horses to accelerate in the final three furlongs to give them a chance to make the 10f of the Derby.
Go to the Meet Mr. X tab and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.
As always, I will be posting my analysis late Friday or early Saturday.
Good luck to all.
Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda
On Wednesday (April 5) had the pick 5 going at Tampa. The first three legs paid $11-13. Then I singled a very difficult race. Horse bumped and weaved through the stretch to win by a head and pay $13.
In the last race on the turf for maidens, I had three horses (1,2,6) that would pay between $5-7.5K for the pick 5. There was only one horse (4) that I thought had a chance, but he had been off a full year, was working steadily since December, but the trainer was 0-13 with horses coming back in more than 90 days. So for insurance, I bet $50 to win on every other horse in the race, and $100 on the 4. Total $400 for insurance.
As the horses were coming down the stretch the 2 and 1 were fighting it out with the 6 already spent on the lead. Then a horse was flying on the outside and won easily. Turned out it was the 4 who paid $13.30. I collected $660 for a $119 profit for the day. Doesn’t seem right.
Pick 5 for $0.50 paid over $76K!