Friday, February 27, 2009

Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream - February 28, 2009

Hardly a prep race for the Derby. Shortened from 9f to a mile. Milers generally don't run in the Derby so we have a number of speed horses who will stretch their speed from 6f to a mile, but won't have anything to do with the Derby.

3 Notonthesamepage looks like the speed of speeds from the inside. I think he will wire the field. Has a good projected closing time to go with his early speed. Best finish time. Major B in last at 114. One to beat.

12 This Ones for Phil from the outside post also has a good projected closing time and second best final time. Freaked at 116 B in last. Dutrow will be looking to cash.

10 Taqarub ships from Aqueduct for McLaughlin/Garcia (choice), unbeaten, Garcia says doesn't need lead.

8 Break Water Edison gets shades, needs to bounce back to last year's form. Loses Garcia, but has a chance to be in the money.

A number of other horses could easily win this race and would be no surprise. I don't understand why Beethoven is shortening in this race. Capt. Candyman looks slower than these, but really can't judge all of the speeds. Quality Road could bounce back. Theregoesjojo beat Quality Road and could be improving as well.

In any event, it looks like the speed will win likely from one of the stretch out horses.

Here is my bet:

$20 Win 3

$5 Exbx: 3-12

$2 Exbx: 3 /8-10

$1 Tri: 3-12/3-8-10-12/3-8-10-12

Total $50

Good luck!

Mr. X

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Sam Davis at Tampa - Saturday, February 14, 2009

Another good betting race for three year olds on the Derby Trail. The Tampa track is sandy and tricky, so it is expected that shippers may have a problem on this surface.

Having said that, I like 6 Cliffy's Future, a shipper from Aqueduct, listed at 10-1 in the morning line. Looks to have the best closing time, good post, and good energy distribution. He has to stay closer to the pace, but looks best to me.

7 Free Country is trained by Ken McPeek along with jock Kent D., so you know they are trying. Stepping back from 9f and had three works. Second choice but no surprise.

5 Atomic Rain is another shipper from Gulfstream beaten by Free Country in last. Kelly Breen trained, with John Vel up. Gets shades and three works.

9 Musket Man won here at 7 f in small stake, stretching, good works, + Lezcano.

It would really be no surprise if any of these horses won. Very good betting race.

The bet:

$20 Win: 6

$5 Exbx: 6 / 5-7-9

Total bet: $50

Good luck!

Mr. X

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Recap: Whirlaway and Risen Star

In the Whirlawy, Haynesfield just overpowered the field. I still don't think he is a viable Derby candidate, but we'll see in the next race. We got a bad ride on our horse, but it really didn't matter. What was noteworthy was that both of my other horses did not finish second or third. Not good.

In the Risen Star, our second choice won. Our first choice went off the favorite after a layoff. While he didn't have to win, I thought that he would finish at least second. He did run into a lot of trouble during the race. None of my other horses finished second, third or fourth. Think about it. Out of thirteen horses, I had five - the winner, but none of the other horses. Bet all the closers, but the way the race was run, nobody really closed into a soft pace. The good news is that I was all wrong, so if I reverse my thinking, we'll hit it. Have to be optimistic.

We'll get them next time.

Mr. X

Friday, February 6, 2009

Whirlaway at Aqueduct - Saturday, February 7, 2009

8th Race

In an upset, I like 3 Peace Town to defeat the big favorite, Haynesfield. Peace Town is a Laurel shipper from Trombetta. Looks to like the distance with the best final time, closing time and good energy distribution. Will need to stay close.

1 Haynesfield is another Asmussen trainee and has done nothing wrong. However, he looks to be past his optimum distance which is the mile and 70 yards, given his energy distribution which is too high. He had to fight in the stretch in last to beat a not so hot field. Very vulnerable at a short price. No thanks.

5 Zooger from Philadelphia could come from the clouds to be 2nd if Haynesfield stops. Good closing time and energy distribution but likely 10 lengths behind after 6 furlongs.

My bet:

$20 Ex: 3-1

$10 Ex: 1-3

$10 Ex: 3-5

Total $40

Good luck!

Mr. X

Risen Star at Fair Grounds - Saturday, February 7, 2009

Race 9

Another Derby Trail race for 3 year olds going 8.5 furlongs, and a very good betting race.

7 Giant Oak looks best off a layoff, gets Prado, and working very well. One to beat. Good closing and final time. Beat Captain Candyman Can who won a stake in the last week or two.

IF SCRATCHED 6 Friesan Fire beat me in the Lecomte at a mile, comes back, Larry Jones trained, and inside which is good. Doesn't close as well so will be with the pace likely throughout. FAIR GROUNDS SHOWED SCRATCH EARLIER, NOW NOT SURE.

2 Indygo Mountain was the near favorite in the Lecomte, hit the gate and bobbled. Another chance, inside, and likely with the leaders. Looks to fade.

8 Dumar is an Asmussen/Bridgmohan, stepping up, tied for best closing time, good chance to be in the money.

10 Soul Warrior another Asumssen but gets P. Val. Other best closing time, stepping up from a maiden win.

New bet after scratch:

$5 Exbox: 7 with 2-8-10

$1 Tri: 7 / 2-8-10-11 / 2-8-10-11 and

$1 Tri: 2-8-10-11 / 7 /2-8-10-11

Total $54

My bet:

$2 Exbox: 7 with 2-6-8-10

$1 Tri: 6-7 / 2-6-7-8-10 / 2-6-7-8-10

Total $40

Good luck!

Mr. X

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Recap: Holy Bull and Donn Handicap

In the Holy Bull prep for the Derby, Danger to Society never looked comfortable between the speeds and really showed almost nothing. Our other two horses finished third and fourth, not unexpected given their post positions, behind two longshot speed horses. I knew we were in trouble with Danger to Society when everyone seemed to pick him, including his trainer, Ken McPeek, who ridiculed the morning line and said that the horse would win. In the Pick3, I singled Danger to Society, with All in the Barbaro brother race won by a $63 horse, along with the winner in the Donn. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

In the Donn, we picked the winner, Albertus Maximus ($8.20), and we had the right idea with a longshot speed horse (30-1) for second. Unfortunately, our speed horse (33-1) was a little slow out of the gate and didn't get to the front. We did not like the favorite, Arson Squad, who finished fourth. But we did have the winner and the third horse, Einstein, completing the Unexacta. Close but no cigar. Maybe next time.

Look for analysis of the next Derby prep here on the Blog.

Mr. X