Friday, May 20, 2022

Preakness 2022

 To me, not a great betting race. 8 Epicenter is once again the horse to beat. The race goes through him. There are a few horses in here that don't belong or can't win: 3 Fenwick, 6 Happy Jack, 7 Armagnac, and 2  Creative Minister. Remember I said the same thing about Rich Strike in the Derby.

4 Secret Oath has to show me she belongs with the boys. No thanks. 1 Simplification is a Florida horse who will be okay with the extremely hot weather but just can't win. 

That leaves 5 Early Voting who ran a great race in the Wood but faltered at the end to Mo Donegal at 9f. Don't like that. May be improving but wintered here in the north, so I am betting that the heat will be too much for him. Bet against Chad Brown at your peril. Will likely try to wire the field.

9 Skippylongstocking finished behind Early Voting in the Wood, but ran very well for third. He is a Florida horse who will not be handicapped by the heat. Also shows a bullet 5f work at Pimlico so we know that he likes the track. He is 20-1.

Keep an eye on how the horses are handling the heat before the race.

Here is the bet: 

Safe bet:

$5 exacta box: 8-9 =10

My bet:

$20 exacta: 8-9

$10 exacta: 9-8

Good luck!

Mr. X

Monday, May 9, 2022

Derby Final Thoughts

 While we discussed the ability of a three year old to improve dramatically, 21 Rich Strike had no chance on paper. I dismissed him in about 10 seconds. An improvement is one thing. But this horse improved about 40 Beyer points to a 101 for the Derby. Unheard of. Additionally, he got a dream trip from his jockey as he was never stopped when closing inside for the win, passing essentially the entire field. Crazy.

Our choice, 1 Mo Donegal needed everything to go his way because he is a deep closer. I had hoped he would get out of the gate and at least get position around 14, in front of about 6 horses. Unfortunately, it looked to me that he got stuck in the gate for at least two steps. Irad said it was a slow start. During the week, there was an interview with Mike Smith who said that the new 20-horse gate was narrower than other gates and large horses had trouble pushing off in the gate at the start. He said that Zengatta wouldn't even fit in the gate. In any event, Mo Donegal ran a great race after the start closing on the outside to finish fifth. Irad had to go wide, because there was a wall of horses in front of him, with Rich Strike getting the inside path. I had hoped that Mo would get the kind of trip that Rich Strike got, but it wasn't to be.

Everything else followed what we thought would happen. A very quick pace with 3 Epicenter keeping his rail position, then moving out. Zandon followed that move but was never going to get past Epicenter.

Had multiple Oaks/Derby double tickets with the four horses we had, so lost everything. Would have cleaned up if Mo had won. But woulda, coulda, shoulda - lost big time.

Onto the Preakness.

Friday, May 6, 2022

Kentucky Derby 2022 Doghouse Confidential Posted

This is a real competitive field. Looks like weather will cooperate.

1 Mo Donegal is my choice. Read all about it at the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button. 

Made over $400 on Oaks Day today and have live doubles going in the Oaks/Derby double.

Good luck!

Mr. X 

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

2022 Kentucky Derby Contenders Characterized

 Yes, I'm still here evaluating the contenders for Saturday's Kentucky Derby as I have done for the past twenty years or so. This evaluation is only for the winner and does not consider final time. That analysis on what I will bet, will be done by Friday night or Saturday morning.

This year's group seems to be very talented, so it was somewhat a surprise at how the horses fell into the three categories. I really liked Cyberknife before I did my analysis, but now he is a throwout. Handicapping this year is complicated by the potential of a wet and muddy track. We will see.

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button. Good luck!