Friday, April 30, 2021

Correction Derby Bets

 Safe bet is incorrect. Should have been $2 exacta key box 14 with 1-6-10-17= $16.


Kentucky Derby 2021 Doghouse Posted

 As always, a difficult race. Just couldn't find an alternative to the favorite, unbeaten 14 Essential Quality. 

But I do have some longshots in the exacta.

Just go to Meet Mr. X, and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button. Good luck!

Mr. X

Thursday, April 29, 2021

2021 Derby Categorizations by Energy Distribution and Final Three Furlong Times

 Yes, I am still alive and have received both vaccinations. Now for the Derby.

I have posted the Categorizations at Meet Mr. X, red button. No big surprises. Remember the analysis does not take into account final times. It is only to separate the contenders into the three categories.

I will post my analysis on Friday night or Saturday morning. 

Good luck!

Sunday, September 6, 2020

Derby Final Thoughts

 Obviously, we were very disappointed that Tiz the Law, the hometown horse, didn't win. He ran his race and just couldn't get by Authentic who was a throwout as not meeting my numbers as being able to get the 10f. It could be that Tiz doesn't like Churchill Downs, the only two losses of his career.

I started in 2000 with my numbers categorizing horses by the median energy distribution and last three furlong time. Authentic was red, meaning he did not meet my numbers, i.e. couldn't get the 10f. Leaving out Mine That Bird (didn't calculate his numbers but he qualified) and Super Saver who was yellow (both ran on sealed tracks); there was only one horse who won that didn't meet my numbers: Big Brown. He turned out to be just better than the rest of the horses that year and overpowered them. I did get some satisfaction in the Belmont when he refused to go the mile and one-half Belmont.

This year, we won't get to see Authentic run the mile and one-half as the Belmont was already run at the nine furlong distance. However, barring some injury or other problems, I think it is very possible that Authentic could be a super horse in the future, likely even better next year if he runs. Keep a close eye on him!

Friday, September 4, 2020

Kentucky Derby 2020 Doghouse Posted

 It's been a crazy year, and I don't have any surprising choice for the Derby. It's 17 Tiz the Law all the way.

To see the analysis and betting strategy, click on the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.

Good luck and stay safe!

Saturday, August 8, 2020

Travers Day 2020

 Been losing for the meet but heating up recently. If you were paying attention, we hit the Pick 4 on August 2 (below). Only paid $82, but we will take it. Hit a good Grand Slam on Thursday for $212. Yesterday I was alive to four horses out of eight in the final leg of the late Pick 4, and the best I do was a third place finish. Tough at the Spa.

Today in the Travers all of the horses meet my numbers. 6 Tiz the Law looks overwhelming. He is most seasoned and has a pace edge on the field. Only way he can get beat is if 3 Uncle Chuck by Baffert is another Arrogate. Uncle Chuck is very unseasoned but Baffert doesn't send them here to be second. Depending on the odds, I will bet 6 over 3 and half as much on 3 over 6.

Here is my Grand Slam (races 8-11) bet: 7-1-5-6/3. Expect a short price. Double bet on Tiz the Law.

Here is my $0.50 Pick 5 (races 7-11) bet: 1-4-6/1-2-4-7/1-2-5/5-6/3-6= $72.

Good luck!

Sunday, August 2, 2020

Sunday, August 2 Grand Slam and Late Pick 4

Couldn't hit the Whitney with Tom's d'Etat stumbling out of the gate. Killed our Pick 4's as well.

Today, I'm betting the Grand Slam (races 6-9) and Late Pick 4 (races 7-10) presuming we don't get monsoon rains:

GS: 6-8-3-6/4    $0.50 Pk4: 2-5-8-9/3-6-8-11/6/1-2-3-8= $32 Keying the 6 Moretti in the 9th.

Good luck!