Friday, May 17, 2024

Preakness 2024

 Not thrilled with this race. May be wet or muddy. Muth, the likely favorite, was scratched with a fever by Baffert. So we are left with another Baffert, 9 Imagination. Speedy and will lead until late, although we don't know whether he will like mud. Likely questionable competition in CA. I think that Lukas will send 6 Seize the Day who won the Pat Day mile on Derby Day. So I'm betting that neither will win.

I can't get away from 3 Catching Freedom. My second favorite in the Derby who wasn't a threat but only less than two lengths from the winner. Has the wrong come from behind style for the Preakness, but I'm betting the horse will be closer than he has been.

Nothing wrong with 5 Mystik Dan who will be the likely favorite. Likes mud and ran great in the Derby with a bit of luck up the rail. The most dangerous horse is 8 Tuscan Gold, trained by Chad Brown. Missed the Derby, little experience, but working well. Seems to fit the profile for Chad's winners in the Preakness. Major chance to win.

Safe bet: $2 Exbox 3-5-8= $12

My Bets

Win: 3       $5 Exbox: 3-5-8= $30    $20 Exbox: 3-8= $40     $10 Exbox: 3-5= $20

Good luck!

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Derby Final

 Great ride by Brian Hernandez on Mystik Dan. Horse showed courage going forward on the rail into a very small space. Young horses generally don't do that. Stole the race on the inside.

Our horse, Sierra Leone, had an eventful trip, questionable ride, and missed by inches after doing the Bump with Forever Young down the stretch. I think either would have won without the bumping. 

Dornach on the rail didn't go to the lead out of the gate as everyone assumed, leaving Sierra Leone in no man's land and farther back than Gafflione wanted. Then Gaff had to swing all the way from the inside to the outside losing valuable ground at the top of the stretch.  Forever Young, the Japanese horse (whom I did not like because he was the winner of the Saudi Derby and there were no figures to assess his performance), actually ran very well and could have won.

In the end, we had many things right but didn't cash. Both Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone were green horses meaning they could get the distance, and Forever Young was yellow because we just didn't know how he stacked up. Catching Freedom (another green) ran a respectable fourth although he was no threat to win. Fierceness, the favorite, got in trouble at the start and ran out of gas as we surmised.

On to the Preakness!

Thursday, May 2, 2024

Kentucky Derby Doghouse Confidential Posted

Always a tough race with many ways to go. I like both 2 Sierra Leone and 4 Catching Freedom. Have to favor the Sierra Leone because of more tactical speed. See the analysis at Meet Mr. X, and press the red Doghouse Confidential button. Below is my Pick 5 for $120 which I will split with a friend, Races 8-12, the last race being the Derby:

Good luck!

Mr. X