Friday, August 24, 2018

First Travers for Chad Brown

Looks like Chad Brown has the aces for the Travers. 3 Gronkowski and 9 Good Magic appear to be the ones to beat. Many other pretenders and possibles, but I think one of these and likely the Brown exacta will prevail.

Both horses are doing very well here. I think Chad is really surprised at how good Gronkowski is. He knows what he has in Good Magic. If you recall in the Derby analysis, Good Magic only marginally qualified for the 10f, and I have never been convinced that he wants to go beyond 9f. Gronkowski, on the other hand, looks like he can run all day given his excellent race in the Belmont. Gronkowski is my choice.

Here are my bets: $30 win 3; $10 exacta box 3-9, and maybe $2 exacta 3-9/ 2-4-11. Good luck!

Saturday, August 18, 2018

The Alabama No Walkover

Yes, I am still alive and just barely positive for the meet which is good, because I'm usually way down going into the second half of the meet.

In the Alabama, there are no standouts that show that they can go the 10f including the overwhelming favorite, 3 Midnight Bisou. But she might be that much better than these to carry her speed for the distance. My numbers (incomplete without track variants) suggest that the other Asmussen horse, 4 She's a Julie, may be more suited to the 10f although she has only raced 8.5f, not the usual 9f that we require. The good news is that my numbers say that the second favorite, 8 Talk Veuve to Me, is a complete throwout not being able to make the distance. Other horses that have a chance for second are 7 Coach Rocks who will be wildly overbet because of local connections and the sleeper in Dallas Stewart's lightly raced 5 Auspicious Babe at 30-1.

Here's my bet - Exacta box: 3-4 and exacta: 3-4 over 5-7.

Good luck!

Sunday, June 10, 2018

Sometimes You Get Lucky

Couldn't pass the race so bet a $20 exacta box with Justify and Hofburg. Payoff was only $180-200; not a great bet.

However, I covered my exacta bet by betting the $1trifecta with Justify and Hofburg coming first and third with all in the second slot for $16. Total bet was $56,

Jose Ortiz showed why he is the best by saving ground all the way after a slow start to get Gronkowski into second at 24-1.

Payoff was $229 for the $1tri. Better than my exactas. Sometimes you do get lucky!

Saturday, June 9, 2018

Triple Crown for Justify?

If there was ever a race where a superior horse was lined up against a bunch of second stringers, then this is the race. It is Justify's race to lose. Whether he can win for the 6th time in 111 days and get the mile and one-half are the only questions.

Our Derby horse, Audible, would have been a major threat if he were running, but Winstar Farm owns both Justify and Audible. It will mean millions to them in breeding rights if Justify wins the Triple Crown. Pletcher said that Audible was not training great so they decided to hold him out from the Belmont. When speaking about his horses, Pletcher has about the same credibility as Harvey Weinstein.

So we are left with Justify and a bunch of second stringers. The only horse that has a chance to win is Hofburg, but he is no bargain at 4-1. He is a Tapit, so the distance will not be a problem. Remember Tapwrit (a Tapit) won last year. Hofburg chased Audible home in the Florida Derby and finished three lengths back on a speed favoring track. Expect a big effort from Hofburg but up against it as deep closer.

Justify looks to cruise on or near the lead throughout and accelerate at the top of the stretch. Hofburg should close well to be second (or first if Justify can't make the distance).

If I bet the race, it will be an exacta box but no real value here. Good luck!

Saturday, May 19, 2018


Audible broke my heart just missing second. Handicappers said he had a bad trip/ride, but I didn't see it. No power or cable all weekend, and I was very surprised at the weather. On Friday night, I checked to see that there may be a shower, but that would be it. Shocked that it was a monsoon.

Today, it looks like a two-horse race in the slop again. So there is no value betting Justify and Good Magic who has a very legitimate chance to upset.

Lone Sailor has won in the slop and gets Irad for Tom Amoss. Tough trip in the Derby but will be closing.

Just to keep it interesting, here is what I will bet:

$10 exacta: Justify and Good Magic over Lone Sailor

Total: $20

Good luck!

Friday, May 4, 2018

Kentucky Derby 2018 Posted

I have just posted my analysis for tomorrow's big race. Hopefully the weather will hold out and it will be fast or at least good.

I like 5 Audible from Todd Pletcher. Seems to be in the right spot, but as always, you need a great deal of racing luck.

Go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

2018 Kentucky Derby Contenders Characterization

As I do every year, I categorize the contenders based on median energy distribution and last three furlong times. For the most part, this characterization has eliminated a number of good horses from contention because of the demanding Derby distance of 10f. Weather for Saturday looks good, although you never know.

Go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

This year, there are a number of win contenders meaning that this is a strong group of horses. Remember that this characterization does not include final times or any other handicapping, so it is only for horses that can run the 10f and have shown the ability to be able to win. Any horse can come second or third.

I will post my selections on Friday night or early Saturday. Good luck with the handicapping!

Mr. X