Friday, October 31, 2014

Breeder's Cup Late Pick 4 Posted for Saturday, November 1

Just posted a $0.50 Pick 4 costing $122 before scratches. Need to spread in these races. Just go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

12th Race B.C. Classic

I think 11 Tonalist is the key horse and horse to beat. Very tough race, but he looks like he is in a good spot. The track continues to be speed favoring on dirt, so horses way back don't have a legitimate chance. Bet horses near or on the lead even in longer dirt races.

10th Race B.C. Sprint

I really like the horse from Hong Kong who won at Santa Anita: 6 Rich Tapestry.  Major race here in last. Another key horse to use in the exotics. Discounted the chances of Palace and Salutos Amigos because they come from so far back.

Only need one race to be profitable on the day. Collected twice today and lost. I'm the only one who could do that. Left out the favorite in my Pick 4 as well, so I didn't hit it. But it wasn't much anyway. Looking for bigger fish to fry.

Good luck!

Friday, August 29, 2014


Should be 4 horse in 5 th race in the pick 4. Sorry for the error.

Doghouse Posted for Friday, August 29

Just posted the Doghouse Confidential for today. It includes the early Pick 4 starting at race 2. May play the Pick 5 today for the first time.

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Had an okay week winning a good double on Wednesday, but remain way, way, down. However, there is always hope during Finals Week.

Good luck!

Saturday, August 23, 2014

Late Scratch Substitute, 9th Race

In the Pick 4, substitute 2 Centre Court as an A horse for 5 Dayatthespa who was scratched.

Travers and Stakes Pick 4, August 23, 2014

To me, this is a three-horse race between Bayern, Tonalist, and Wicked Strong. These all stand out, and I won't bet anyone else. Don't think it is such a great betting race, however, because it is difficult to separate the three.

2 Bayern is an interesting horse. Whistled in the Haskell at 9f in an okay paced race. The difficult part is that the horse ran faster at the end and has the best closing time of the three. Not what I expected. So he meets my criteria of getting 10f rather easily. Bayern has never run on the more tiring Spa track versus the glib surface favoring front runners at Monmouth.

6 Tonalist won the Belmont at 12f and looked like he wasn't fully cranked for the Jim Dandy. But he just may be a better 10f horse than the rest. A little bit upright and not going past Wicked Strong that day.

7 Wicked Strong was our Derby horse who got into a lot of trouble. But his Wood Memorial time was the best of all the Derby preps. Jerkens put the blinkers on him in the Jim Dandy, and he ran much better. Looked as if he wouldn't let Tonalist pass him at all. Maybe he's turned the corner.

I think the pace of the race will have Wicked Strong and Tonalist much closer to Bayern knowing that they can't let Bayern get away. Remember that Bayern has the best closing time, so if there is a moderate pace with no pressure, Bayern will gallop. But my numbers suggest that the three will be relatively close to one another at the 6f mark.

If I had to pick the order, I think that the small edge goes to Wicked Strong. I will bet all three in an Exacta box and then likely bet Wicked Strong over the other two again.

Finally, I have posted the all Stakes Pick 4, races 9-12, ending with the Travers. Just go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck to all!

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Doghouse Confidential Posted for Sunday, August 10

Just posted the Doghouse for Sunday. As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Still losing but hitting some races. Haven't had a winning day yet.

Good luck!

Friday, August 1, 2014

Whitney Day Doghouse Confidential Posted

Handicapped races 7 through 11, fast and firm. As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Haven't been doing well at all so take it easy. It will be a long day. Wait for the later stakes races.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Doghouse Confidential Posted for Sunday, July 27

I just posted an abbreviated Doghouse for races 6 through 10 although two of the races are guessing games. Handicapped for fast and firm presuming we will get some storms.

Wicked Strong finally ran to his potential and beat Tonalist. I guess the blinkers helped him focus. On to the Travers which should be a good one.

Had Coup de Grace as my best bet today. She won easily, but I didn't have a dollar on her to win. Didn't hit the exacta. Have to bet them right.

Go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck to all!

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Monday, July 21st Saratoga Pick 4

The Holy Days are here. Broke my maiden today with a few cashed tickets, but only broke even at best.

Tomorrow I will be betting the late Pick 4 singling 2 Grace Hall in 8th race feature. The total bet for $0.50 is $37. If you are adventurous, just double the bet.

You can get the Pick 4 at the Meet Mr. X page. Just click on the Doghouse Confidential red button.

I'll post occasionally including a full Doghouse Confidential from time to time, so you have to make sure that you check the blog here.

Good luck!

Monday, June 9, 2014

Mr. X Hits the Belmont

We finally hit a good one. It isn't everyday that we hit a $348 exacta.

Had it 2.5 times (see post below) and bet another $20 to win on Tonalist when he drifted up to 14-1. However, you can never have enough money on a winning horse!

Cleared over $900. We'll take it!

Mr. X

Saturday, June 7, 2014

2014 Belmont Stakes

Everyone wants to see a Triple Crown winner including me. So one part of me will be rooting for 2 California Chrome. But after watching many Belmont's where I thought the Triple Crown were locks, I have to go with the odds in that no horse has done it  for the last 36 years.

2 California Chrome is the horse to beat. No doubt about it. But three races in five weeks is a killer, especially against dangerous, fresh horses like 9 Wicked Strong and 11 Tonalist. Wicked Strong was my pick for the Derby but he had traffic trouble and never got to daylight which he needs to accelerate. Maybe he isn't good enough, but the distance is best for him. Tonalist is a lightly raced horse that meets my numbers. I tried to leave him out, but I can't. Won at Belmont in the slop and broke his maiden at 9f. Presumably he will be at or need the lead with Chrome and 7 Samraat. He could last, but things need to go right for him. 8 Commissioner is a Pletcher - Winstar Farms who breed for the classics and distance. He has had some very bad trips and bad racing luck. He could hit the board and surprise.

Ride on Curlin has run in both classics and may be tired. Rosario gets off to ride Tonalist so you have to discount his chances. Commanding Curve looks to be too late and too far back.

Here is the safe bet:

$2 Exacta box: 2-8-9-11 = $24

Here is what I will bet:

$1 Triple box: 2-8-9-11 = $24

$5 Exacta box: 2-8-9-11 = $60

$10 Exacta: 9-11 over 2-9-11 = $40

Total $124

Saturday, May 17, 2014

2014 Preakness

Based upon my numbers, 5 Bayern and 8 Social Inclusion will go to the lead and try to bury 3 California Chrome. I have them both faster than California Chrome by seven lengths at 6f. But neither appear to be able to go the distance. 

1 Dynamic Impact is the key horse to get into the exacta and may win. Looks to stalk along the rail and eventually get out and through horses. He has the best final time in the race and the best closing time along with 3 California Chrome. So it is a two-horse race to the wire.

Here is the safe bet:

$2 exacta box: 1-3-5-8 = $24

Here is what I will bet:

$40 exacta box: 1-3 = $80

$10 exacta: 1-3 over 5-8 = $40

Total $120

Friday, May 2, 2014

2014 Kentucky Derby Analysis Posted

It's that time again and time for us to cash.

Just go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Maybe we can all be Wicked Strong this year.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Monday, April 21, 2014

2014 Derby Contenders Posted

As I have done in the past years, I have posted the Derby Contenders based on energy distribution and last three furlong times. These criteria have shown to be very reliable in predicting the winning horse from the top category. Any horse can come second or third.

You can find the list at the Meet Mr. X page by clicking on the red Doghouse Confidential button. You can also access the page at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.

Remember these criteria are only to separate contenders. At this point, I have not looked at final times or how they are training at Churchill.

Hopefully, we can get a fast track as the numbers are only good for the fast or good track.

I will post an analysis of the Derby either the night before or the day of, depending on conditions.

Mr. X