Friday, January 30, 2009

Donn Handicap at Gulfstream, Saturday, January 31, 2009

9th Race

Some of the old plodders in a Grade I race. I like the dangerous speed of 6 On Board Again to get into the exacta at a price. Frankel trained, horse is rested, and there is not much real speed in the race. On Board Again looks to get the lead and hold it until the middle of the stretch. Hopefully, he won't be pressed and can last into the exacta photo. I'll take my chances at 20-1.

2 Albertus Maximus is a rug specialist so we don't know how well he will adapt. He is inside and looks to get a good trip. He is a great closer with the best closing time. Likely winner.

10 Einstein is some horse and really looks too good to be true. Wins on all surfaces, but he is parked outside, and his trainer says that he doesn't like the Gulfstream surface. Great closing time as well. No surprise if he wins.

My bet:

$5 Exacta box: 2-6-10

$5 Exacta box: 2-6

$1 Tri box: 2-6-10

Total $46

Good luck!

Mr. X

Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on the Derby Trail, Saturday, January 31, 2009

Race 7
These races are hard to handicap and harder to bet. The best horse may be the one going on to the Triple Crown so the trainer doesn't have him cranked up, and he doesn't have to win. Many other horses don't look like they fit, or the trainer doesn't know what he has, so he is trying the big boys.

I think 11 Beethoven is the best horse in the race with the best closing time and good energy distribution. But Ward doesn't care about winning this race for his Derby horse. Coupled with an impossible post (except for Big Brown who won from the outside), I will bet against Beethoven to win. Borel will head for the rail right after the break.

The horse that looks to be in the right spot is 2 Danger to Society. He is inside, has Albarado, and has good numbers. He has not lost in his first two races and won easily in his last. McPeek is also a hot trainer with three wins, one second, and two thirds in his last seven races. I doubt that Danger will be a Derby contender unless he improves his closing time significantly.

10 West Side Bernie is another one on the outside who will have trouble getting near the front. In his case, the 9f looks like a stretch so you know he will be trying. He is not a Derby horse. He is working well and may try to steal the lead from the outside.

My bet:

$20 Win: 2

$10 Exacta box: 2-11

$5 Exacta box: 2-10

Total $50

By the way, Barbaro's little brother, Nicanor, is running for the first time in the 8th race. Everyone has high hopes for the horse. Don't bet him, though. Likely to be wildly overbet.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Derby Trail: Holy Bull

This year we are going to follow the prep races more closely and handicap them when possible. We'll concurrently keep our contenders list as we have in the past,

I will post my bets late tonight or tomorrow for the 9f Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Maybe the Donn as well.

Mr. X