Travers 2024

 Sorry I haven't been posting. Been a crazy summer. I like our old friend, Sierra Leone, to break through. Rested and ready to roll. Hard to fault Dornoch who is an incredible fighter. But he may be a little tired after the Haskell. Thorpedo Anna does not make my numbers, so I'm betting against to win. Did walk home in the last two races so maybe she can make the 10f of the Travers. So my bet is Sierra Leone over Dornoch and Thorpedo Anna.

I'm also playing the Stakes Pick 5 starting in race 9. Did hit the opening Saturday Pick 5 for $5100 and close on numerous occasions:

Good luck!

Belmont Stakes Pick 5

 Missed the Pick 5 by half a nose yesterday. Here is what I will play today. Obviously, have to get past the single in the turf sprint.

Race 8: 1,3,7,9/8/2,5,6/1,5,7,9/3,9 = $48 for $0.50

Good luck!

Belmont Stakes

No surprises here. Sticking to 9 Sierra Leone as the best horse, new jockey, and new equipment to keep him from lugging in. The only negative is that he is a closer, and the Spa is looking kindly to speed from my vantage point. The real threat is 3 Mystik Dan who will break and stay close to the lead and likely take first shot at the top of the stretch. Can't dismiss 1 Seize the Gray who will be winging on the front end but likely with company now. Have to give another chance to 8 Honor Marie who lost all chance in the Derby and will come from far back.

Here is the safe bet:

$2 Exacta box: 1-3-8-9 = $24

My bet:

$20 Exacta box: 3-9 = $40; $10 exacta: 3-9/1-8 = $40

Good luck!

Preakness 2024

 Not thrilled with this race. May be wet or muddy. Muth, the likely favorite, was scratched with a fever by Baffert. So we are left with another Baffert, 9 Imagination. Speedy and will lead until late, although we don't know whether he will like mud. Likely questionable competition in CA. I think that Lukas will send 6 Seize the Day who won the Pat Day mile on Derby Day. So I'm betting that neither will win.

I can't get away from 3 Catching Freedom. My second favorite in the Derby who wasn't a threat but only less than two lengths from the winner. Has the wrong come from behind style for the Preakness, but I'm betting the horse will be closer than he has been.

Nothing wrong with 5 Mystik Dan who will be the likely favorite. Likes mud and ran great in the Derby with a bit of luck up the rail. The most dangerous horse is 8 Tuscan Gold, trained by Chad Brown. Missed the Derby, little experience, but working well. Seems to fit the profile for Chad's winners in the Preakness. Major chance to win.

Safe bet: $2 Exbox 3-5-8= $12

My Bets

Win: 3       $5 Exbox: 3-5-8= $30    $20 Exbox: 3-8= $40     $10 Exbox: 3-5= $20

Good luck!

Derby Final

 Great ride by Brian Hernandez on Mystik Dan. Horse showed courage going forward on the rail into a very small space. Young horses generally don't do that. Stole the race on the inside.

Our horse, Sierra Leone, had an eventful trip, questionable ride, and missed by inches after doing the Bump with Forever Young down the stretch. I think either would have won without the bumping. 

Dornach on the rail didn't go to the lead out of the gate as everyone assumed, leaving Sierra Leone in no man's land and farther back than Gafflione wanted. Then Gaff had to swing all the way from the inside to the outside losing valuable ground at the top of the stretch.  Forever Young, the Japanese horse (whom I did not like because he was the winner of the Saudi Derby and there were no figures to assess his performance), actually ran very well and could have won.

In the end, we had many things right but didn't cash. Both Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone were green horses meaning they could get the distance, and Forever Young was yellow because we just didn't know how he stacked up. Catching Freedom (another green) ran a respectable fourth although he was no threat to win. Fierceness, the favorite, got in trouble at the start and ran out of gas as we surmised.

On to the Preakness!

Kentucky Derby Doghouse Confidential Posted

Always a tough race with many ways to go. I like both 2 Sierra Leone and 4 Catching Freedom. Have to favor the Sierra Leone because of more tactical speed. See the analysis at Meet Mr. X, and press the red Doghouse Confidential button. Below is my Pick 5 for $120 which I will split with a friend, Races 8-12, the last race being the Derby:

Good luck!

Mr. X

Kentucky Derby 2024 Contenders Characterized

 Yes, I am still alive and well and betting on horses. Additionally, I have subscribed to EquinEdge which is a racing platform that uses Artificial Intelligence. Very interesting and still learning.

I have posted the Contenders separated by median energy distribution and the last three furlongs in less than 38 seconds as I do every year. I have been using this system since around 2000 to separate contenders who appear to be able to go the 10f of the Derby versus others that don't seem to want to go that far.

You can see the characterization at Meet Mr. X tab, then hit enter on the red Doghouse Confidential button. I will post later in the week or the weekend for the Derby. Looks like rain may 'muddy up' the works. 

Good luck!

Mr. X

Breeder's Cup Late Pick 5

 Here is what I will bet with a partner. Total cost of the $0.50 bet is $240 with the picks in the order of preference. Classic is very difficult. Way to much speed in the race and really wide open. Maybe the closer in Zandon can pick up the pieces:

Travers Day Pick 5

 Hit the Pick 5 today  ($791) for only the third time at Saratoga, although had countless 4 of 5's (which don't pay).

Tomorrow's card is fantastic to watch excellent horses in five stake races ending with the Travers. Unfortunately, while great to watch championship horses, betting big favorites doesn't make you money. 

In the Travers, I like Arcangelo to beat Forte. Working since the Belmont and beat Forte, but either one could win. Should be a great race.

Here is my pick 5 for tomorrow starting with the 8th race. But don't forget the 7th with Elite Power going up against Gunite again. Should be a great race. Good luck!

Whitney Day Pick 5, Races 8-12

 Here is my Pick 5 for today, singling Cody's Wish:

Good luck!

Whitney Stakes Doghouse Posted

 The condition of the turf course will really impact the selections. I have assumed yielding and leaned on the European horses. I have handicapped races 6-10 which are all the stakes races on the card.

Let's hope Cody's Wish wins the Whitney. Just too good a story. I will be playing the Pick 4 which is races 7-10. 

Have been losing highlighted by the last July 26 Doghouse where my horse in the last race at 20-1 was interfered with yet no disqualification on the winner. Pick 5 would have paid $985!

As always, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Doghouse Posted for Wednesday, July 26

 I have finally posted my first Doghouse Confidential of the 2023 Saratoga meet. Have been losing but holding my own. Haven't hit the Pick 5 yet, but have had a few 4 of 5, along with a great deal of swearing.

As always, go to the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X. Tough card as usual so take it easy.

Good luck!

Belmont Stakes 2023

For many reasons, I'm not excited about this race. Hated the Preakness and the ridiculously slow pace. This race has a lot going on in different directions. Tapit Trice was the second favorite in the Derby whom I did not like at all. Got behind a wall of horses at the start and never recovered. Don't expect him to do any better this time even though he is being heavily touted.

I still like Forte to win although his come from behind style does not win the Belmont. But hard to ignore. Angel of Empire will get blinkers and has worked very fast since the Derby. Will be closer than his usual style coming from way behind. Generally, I do not like changes in big races, but I trust Brad Cox. Will have to love the Belmont track to win. Cox entered two other "rabbits" from his stable to keep National Treasure company on the front end. Just going to bet an exacta box with 6 Forte and 8 Angel of Empire.

Good luck! 

Preakness Pick 5, Races 9-13

 Here is the expensive  and cheaper versions of the Pick 5:

Preakness 2023

Unfortunately, this race has really fallen apart. With only 3 Mage from the Derby, we are now down to six horses with the scratch today of First Mission. It doesn't look like Mage can be beaten with this group. He needs to break okay or at least not really bad as he prone to do. 

The danger is the 1 National Treasure with Johnny Velasquez on the rail. Baffert who wants to be relevant again in the Triple Crown has been working the horse extremely fast in California. Hopefully, 4 Coffeewithchris will keep him company. The only way Mage can be beaten is if National Treasure is alone on the front end. However, National Treasure is no prize. He was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby behind Practical Move who scratched, and the rest of the California horses did nothing in the Derby. Baffert's undefeated filly in the Black-Eyed Susan as the big favorite failed badly. So you have to question the caliber of the California horses.

The only way I can see to make any money on the race is to find a closer who will follow Mage and complete the exacta. The horse I like is a Gun Runner closer trained by Asmussen in 5 Red Route One. Has raced four times in 2023 including the Arkansas Derby, the Rebel, the Southwest, and won his last ungraded stakes. Deep closer with Joel Rosario who won on him last.

There are others like 6 Perform that could be second, but I'm betting that Red Route One completes the exacta.

Safe bet:

$2 Exacta key box: 3 with 1, 5,6 = $12

My bet:

$40 Exacta: 3 over 5

$10 Exacta: 5 over 3

Good luck!

Derby Epilogue

 Not a good day at all. Too many changes and scratches. Our horse, Angel of Empire, was a solid favorite to win after Forte scratched. Terrible, uncharacteristic ride by Flavien Plat not keeping up and letting the horse go to the back of the pack. Can't win from that position. Only lost by 1.5 lengths and closing. Mage was a good horse to at least consider after being beaten by Forte in the Florida Derby. Just never did after the scratch. On to the Preakness.

Correction

 Always check my numbers. Disarm is 11 horse, not 9. That is where he will break from (his post position).

Also my suspicions were confirmed: Forte is out with a bruised foot.

Bets are the same without Forte.

Good luck!

Kentucky Derby 2023 Doghouse Confidential with Pick 5

 The day is finally here tomorrow. Many scratches have changed the complexion of the race. Be sure to look for the Pick 5 ending with the Derby at the bottom of the Doghouse.

Looks like 14 Angel of Empire for Brad Cox and Flavien Plat. Great race in the Arkansas Derby and looking to move forward with a wide sweeping move at the end just as he did at Oaklawn.

There are questions about 15 Forte who is the deserving favorite off his accomplishments to date.

As always, click on the red Doghouse Confidential button at the Meet Mr. X tab.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Kentucky Derby 2023 Probables Categorized

 As we do every year, I have characterized the horses based on their median energy distribution and last  three furlong times at or near 9f. Remember this is only a way to separate the contenders and does not even consider final times. 

It appears that the analysis for this year really doesn't help to separate the contenders. It could be that the trainers are now training horses to accelerate in the final three furlongs to give them a chance to make the 10f of the Derby.

Go to the Meet Mr. X tab and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

As always, I will be posting my analysis late Friday or early Saturday.

Good luck to all.

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda

 

On Wednesday (April 5) had the pick 5 going at Tampa. The first three legs paid $11-13. Then I singled a very difficult race. Horse bumped and weaved through the stretch to win by a head and pay $13.

In the last race on the turf for maidens, I had three horses (1,2,6) that would pay between $5-7.5K for the pick 5. There was only one horse (4) that I thought had a chance, but he had been off a full year, was working steadily since December, but the trainer was 0-13 with horses coming back in more than 90 days. So for insurance, I bet $50 to win on every other horse in the race, and $100 on the 4. Total $400 for insurance.

As the horses were coming down the stretch the 2 and 1 were fighting it out with the 6 already spent on the lead. Then a horse was flying on the outside and won easily. Turned out it was the 4 who paid $13.30. I collected $660 for a $119 profit for the day. Doesn’t seem right.

Pick 5 for $0.50 paid over $76K!

Mr. X