Unfortunately, this race has really fallen apart. With only 3 Mage from the Derby, we are now down to six horses with the scratch today of First Mission. It doesn't look like Mage can be beaten with this group. He needs to break okay or at least not really bad as he prone to do.
The danger is the 1 National Treasure with Johnny Velasquez on the rail. Baffert who wants to be relevant again in the Triple Crown has been working the horse extremely fast in California. Hopefully, 4 Coffeewithchris will keep him company. The only way Mage can be beaten is if National Treasure is alone on the front end. However, National Treasure is no prize. He was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby behind Practical Move who scratched, and the rest of the California horses did nothing in the Derby. Baffert's undefeated filly in the Black-Eyed Susan as the big favorite failed badly. So you have to question the caliber of the California horses.
The only way I can see to make any money on the race is to find a closer who will follow Mage and complete the exacta. The horse I like is a Gun Runner closer trained by Asmussen in 5 Red Route One. Has raced four times in 2023 including the Arkansas Derby, the Rebel, the Southwest, and won his last ungraded stakes. Deep closer with Joel Rosario who won on him last.
There are others like 6 Perform that could be second, but I'm betting that Red Route One completes the exacta.
$2 Exacta key box: 3 with 1, 5,6 = $12
$40 Exacta: 3 over 5
$10 Exacta: 5 over 3