Late Pick 4 for Friday

Putting in a $0.50 pick 4 singling the Princess of Sylmar:

7th 5-7
8th 2-3-4-5-10-11-12
9th 2-4-6-8-10-12-13-14
10th 6

total $56

Good luck!

Sunday Doghouse Posted, August 25, 2013

Just posted a Doghouse for today. Many firsters and guessing games, so take it easy. Didn't cash big on the Travers, but that is the way it goes.

Go to the red Doghouse Confidential button on the Meet Mr. X page or the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.

Good luck! Just fantastic weather.

Mr. X

Travers Epilogue

If anyone was smart enough to box all four of the horses selected for $2, you would have won:

exacta: $313

triple: $1,950

superfecta: $5,098

Of course, I didn't. Only bet it the way I said I would with Palace Malice making the exacta. Unfortunately, the horse stumbled coming out of the gate and went wide throughout.

I did bet Moreno across the board at 31-1, so I made about $50 for the race. Big deal!

You have to bet it right! Next time.

Mr. X

Travers Pick 4 Posted

Sorry for the late post. I have posted the Pick 4 for races 9-12 at the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.

Good luck!

The Travers Analysis - Saturday, August 24, 2013

It looks to me like 8 Palace Malice is the horse to beat. The Jim Dandy is the key race so I think that the horses coming out of that race are best. Palace Malice looks to be able to go the 10f based on my numbers. Palace Malice is working extremely well since the Jim Dandy, so it looks like all systems go for Pletcher and Mike Smith whom I'm not crazy about here at the Spa. At the very least, I think that Palace Malice will make the exacta.

6 Moreno is a dangerous speed horse working extremely well here since the Jim Dandy, too. He hasn't ever raced this far, so that is a question mark. My numbers say he can do it. Because his workouts are so good, I expect him to improve. On the negative side, everyone knows he is a speed horse, so they don't want him to get an easy lead. Chance to win and chance to fade even though he is a fresher horse and an improving horse since the shades.

5 Will Take Charge did nothing wrong in the Jim Dandy, finishing second behind Palace Malice. Has the best closing time; his numbers are good all around. His works since the Jim Dandy have been good. However, he has danced a lot of dances so he could regress. Lukas likes to run his horses.

2 Orb is the wild card. Been resting since the Triple Crown and had a great work here on 8/19 so he is ready. Been working steadily elsewhere so stamina should not be an issue. However, looking at his past performances, I'm not sure he is as good as these. Yes, he won the Derby on a sealed, sloppy track. But his Beyer numbers in the Preakness and Belmont are only 92. Could have been tired or he is just not good enough on a dry track. Add to the fact that he is a deep closer on a track where you need to be within 5 lengths of the leader at the second call. So even if he is ready, he needs to stay close. Too many question marks for me.

Here is what I will bet: exacta box with 8 Palace Malice over 6 Moreno, 5 Will Take Charge, 2 Orb

I will likely bet another exacta box: 8 Palace Malice and 6 Moreno

No sheet for Travers Day, but I may do a late Pick 4 play.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Sunday's Doghouse Confidential Posted, August 18

Just posted today's Doghouse. Not a great card. Too many turf races.

Had everything on the Doghouse on Friday. You need to bet them right as well. Hit the early Pick 4, won $3. Lost $200 for the day. Hit the late Pick 4 yesterday, but still down just a little for the meet.

Just go the red Doghouse Confidential button at the Meet Mr. X page and click on it. Or go to the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.

Good luck!

Doghouse Posted for Friday, August 16

Looks like favorites, but will be betting the Pick 4's. Now even.

Go to the red Doghouse Confidential button on Meet Mr. X or the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr.X page.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Doghouse Will Be Posted for Friday, August 16

I will post another Doghouse sometime tomorrow morning for the Friday card. I will also have a Pick 4 ticket as part of the Doghouse.

Track Conditions and Selections for Wednesday

Weather apparently was bad in Saratoga.

Races 2,7, and 10 are off the turf, so ignore my selections.

Track conditions at 8 am are muddy and yielding. I handicapped for much better conditions (fast and good/firm) so take that into account.

Mr. X

Doghouse Confidential Posted for Wednesday, August 14

Just posted a Doghouse for tomorrow. First few races are impossible, and the others are really contentious so take it easy.

As always, go to the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X and click on it. You will also see the Racing Calendar at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page. There a copy will be available as well on the specific date.

Handicapped for fast and good to firm on the turf.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Doghouse to be Posted for Wednesday, August 14

Look for another Doghouse likely late morning tomorrow.

Racing Calendar Updated for August 2013

At Meet Mr. X at the bottom of the page, I have updated the Racing Calendar which will give you the links to the dates on which a Doghouse Confidential was issued.

Doghouse Confidential Posted for Sunday, August 11, 2013

For those of you paying attention, yesterday's Doghouse yielded 7 A winners out of 8 races including a $35 horse that triggered two Pick 3's, the Grand Slam, and the late Pick 4. Made $1700, now plus for the meet.

Today's card is not great. Later races are better. Just go to the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.

Good luck!

Doghouse Posted for Saturday, August 10, 2013

Finally got the site working. You can now get a copy at the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.

Good luck!

Doghouse Confidential for Saturday, August 10, 2013

Had trouble posting the first Doghouse of the season, so here it is below:

DOGHOUSE CONFIDENTIAL SARATOGA STRATEGIES by Mr. X at www.sovas.net
Mr. & Mrs. X                                                                                                                                Saturday, August 10, 2013
R	#	TkMkr	Name	Comments
1	3	A	Ithastobegeorge	Cast; good finish last here; trainer doing well here; one to beat
	7	A	Moonlight Song	High speed; excellent work 7/30; ready; but 6 yr old; not best dist?
	2	B	Tug of War	Very sharp works; layoff, new trainer; likes Spa
	6	B	Tenango	Excuse last ; may bounce back to 90 B's; not best dist?
2	5	A	Expression	Looks to be right spot; others?; owner/trainer; dist specialist
	3	B	Greed and Fear	Maker/Ramsey claim in June; moves up; beaten by 5
	1	B	AnnsSmartDancr	Levine/JVel; doesn't win; gets rail which is only 1/30
3	2	A	The Sixties	+Cast layoff; Maker/Ramsey; stepping up; okay works; no prize
	3	A	Where's Danny	Won here in off turfer but beat 12; Kenneally/Rosario; bumped last, still won
7	7	A	Soul House	Looks best; good race here; Weaver/Cast; big favorite
	5	A	AmbssadrBridge	+Rosario; good work; main danger; Gyarmati?
	8	B	Even Got Quiet	No name trainer/jock; good race here; will like 7f; needs better start
	9	C	Charlie's Punch	Ness; Saez choice? Looks to run along
	10	C	Fiona's Hero	Rudy layoff after claim; good work with Rudy up; needs to improve
8	7	A	Leadem Ken	Stepping up for Maker/Ramsey; layoff; won at dist; +Cast
	10	A	Dangerous Lad	IOrtiz choice; stretching, excellent work; excuses at GP
	5	A	Abraham	Pletcher/JVel; first turf; excellent work; +shades
	3	B	Ghost Hunter	Racing w better; first turf; layoff but trainer change to Mott/Prado
				Watch AE's
				$1 Pick 4: 5-7-10/2-8-9/1/3-4-5-8= $36
9	8	A	Summer of Fun	Very tough race, but looks best; ready off layoff; Weaver hot; excellent works
	9	A	Barbie Wire	Chad Brown hot; stretching, excellent work; ready; stepping up
	2	A	Praia	McPeek; looks to want longer; class; chance inside w Garcia; slower?
		B	1,6,7
10	1	A	Wise Dan	Still the man; toting weight but beat most of these; soft okay
	7	B	Lea	Looks to close, 2nd behind 1, soft okay; +Rosario; improving
	6	B	King Kreesa	Consistent E, +100 B's, but will have company; dist specialist
				Exbx: 1/7-6   Ex: 1-7
11	8	A	Adirondack Dncr	One to beat; Rice/CVel; excellent work; won here
	4	A	North Star Boy	+Cast; excellent work; trainer okay; one to beat
	3	B	Namron	Klesaris/Prado; Del shipper; could surprise on inner; closer
	5	B	Short Shrift	Stepping up; horse for course, dist specialist; but E on inner; 2 will challenge
	6	C	Unbridled Logic	+Rosario/Levine; layoff; lesser B's
	1	C	Situational Ethic	Rail, consistent B's; but 0/4 Spa, 0/7 distance
	2	C	Bluegrass Spring	Claimed last; Rice 2nd entry; stretching; will want lead

Handicapped for fast, good. Was very bad early, hardly cashed but now heating up. Have been winning or breaking even. Still a way to go for even. Fifth race off the turf. Good luck!

Belmont Selections

Really don't like the race particularly because the track conditions are really changing. I think at post time we will probably still have a sealed track or muddy track. Don't see it being fast.

I only looked at the race now, and I'm not crazy about betting it. Having said that, I like the first three finishers of the Derby (Orb, Golden Soul, and Revolutionary) along with Freedom Child.

I don't know how I will bet the exacta's but I will bet a four horse triple box for sure.

Good luck.

Mr. X

Preakness Epilogue

I was very busy yesterday and didn't post. However, that doesn't mean I didn't bet.

The closest thing in my mind to a lock was Orb. I just couldn't see him losing to this bunch even though he had the rail. The weather again wasn't great.

The only way that I thought he would get beat is if one of the horses took off and led all the way around. But I looked at all the early horses and concluded that none could beat Orb in any event. I never would have bet Oxbow to be one of the early horses. To see if there was any track bias for the front end, I reviewed all of the earlier distance races which were won by horses closing from behind.

So in my mind, everything favored Orb to repeat, and I bet him with Mylute in a box (3 times more with Orb on top), then Orb on top with four others, but no Oxbow.

In the end, you should thank your lucky stars that I didn't post. Orb just didn't run his race.

Mr. X

Kentucky Derby Epilogue

Thought we were a winner when Normandy Invasion took control at the top of the stretch. Then thought we were going to have an Orb/Normandy Invasion exacta. But Normandy really faded late. Maybe he would have been second if Castellano waited longer. Then I thought that Golden Soul was Verrazano (14 instead of 4). So even though we were right about a lot of things and horses, we still didn't collect.

Hated the track but it did seem to be very solid underneath the sloppy surface. Even though I said that my system wouldn't work on a sealed or sloppy track, it did.

I didn't evaluate Golden Soul because he had finished behind a number of horses in the Louisiana Derby, and I didn't think he could win. And he didn't. But today I did his numbers, and he qualified as a green horse, not red.

So the top five finishers were all green: having a three furlong time less than 38 seconds and a median energy distribution of less than 68%. The system worked and pointed out the contenders. We were right about a number of horses who received support at the windows but finished up the track. We were also right about Vyjack and the 20 hole. Verrazano, however, was a big disappointment. Overall it looked like the race was cleanly run with a minimum of bumps and traffic problems.

Having the best horse doesn't guarantee you the winner because of the twenty horses in the race. But Orb really looked good. As I said, we had a lot of things right, but still didn't collect. Better luck in the Preakness!

Kentucky Derby 2013 Doghouse Confidential

Having trouble with the website so I posted my Derby analysis here:

DOGHOUSE CONFIDENTIAL by Mr. X

May 4, 2013

	PP		HORSE	JOCKEY	TRAINER	ODDS
	1		Black Onyx	Joe Bravo	Kelly Breen	50-1
	2		Oxbow	Gary Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	30-1
	3	B	Revolutionary	Calvin Borel	Todd Pletcher	10-1
	4		Golden Soul	Robby Albarado	Dallas Stewart	50-1
	5	A	Normandy Invasion	Javier Castellano	Chad Brown	12-1
	6	B	Mylute	Rosie Napravnik	Tom Amoss	15-1
	7		Giant Finish	Jose Espinoza	Tony Dutrow	50-1
	8	C	Goldencents	Kevin Krigger	Doug O'Neill	5-1
	9	C	Overanalyze	Rafael Bejarano	Todd Pletcher	15-1
	10	C	Palace Malice	Mike Smith	Todd Pletcher	20-1
	11		Lines of Battle	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien	30-1
	12	C	Itsmyluckyday	Elvis Trujillo	Eddie Plesa Jr.	15-1
	13		Falling Sky	Luis Saez	John Terranova	50-1
	14	A	Verrazano	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	4-1
	15		Charming Kitten	Edgar Prado	Todd Pletcher	20-1
	16	A	Orb	Joel Rosario	Shug McGaughey	7-2
	17		Will Take Charge	Jon Court	D. Wayne Lukas	20-1
	18		Frac Daddy	Victor Lebron	Kenny McPeek	50-1
	19		Java's War	Julien Leparoux	Kenny McPeek	15-1
	20	C	Vyjack	Garrett Gomez	Rudy Rodriguez	15-1

Analysis

If you have been following my system of evaluating horses that can run 10 furlongs, you can follow the above colors: green are horses that appear to be able to go the distance, yellow are horses that have made the grade on synthetics or have one time or another appeared to be able to make it, and red are horses that I don’t think can go beyond 9 furlongs or are eliminated because they don’t look competitive.

The analysis is different once again this year because all of these horses have had to compete to get in on the points system, thereby showing their stripes this year. Furthermore, there are no cheap speed sprinters that typically upset the early pace. So the horses should have a legitimate pace and it should be theoretically easier to separate contenders from non contenders given that they have run against each other already?

But the big problem again is the weather. I know (think?) now that there will be significant moisture in the track, and it looks like it could be heavier than just intermittent showers.

My system works best on a dry track or a just moist track and doesn’t work at all on a sealed or extremely sloppy track. Having said that, I have not changed my selections, but I will bet less on the Derby given the weather conditions.

My numbers say that 5 Normandy Invasion will storm to the front and win. He is on the light side, but training very well for Chad Brown. Normandy Invasion was a fast closing second to Verranzo in the Wood Memorial. The horse has the best closing time of the bunch. Most importantly, however, is that Castellano chose Normandy Invasion over Revolutionary who is Pletcher’s horse and one of Pletcher’s main riders along with Johnny V.

14 Verrazano was cruising down in the Wood and has never been seriously threatened. He is Johnny V.’s choice for Pletcher although Johnny admitted that he chose Verrazano before Orb was available. Verrazano has good numbers but is still somewhat of an unknown. Could run away with the race at the end. My numbers say that the Wood Memorial was the second fastest race after the Santa Anita Derby which I question anyway. This race may be a repeat of the 2003 Derby when Funny Cide and Empire Maker ran one-two in the Wood, and two-one in the Derby.

16 Orb is a talented horse from Shug. He has come from behind to win at Gulfstream Park where speed is king. Johnny V. admitted that Orb was a very good horse and that he feared Orb more than any other horse. Johnny implied that he would have chosen Orb over Verrazano. Orb’s Gulfstream races were slower than the Wood, and his numbers are not as good as the top two. Will be the favorite.

All of the top three would appear to be comfortable in wet or dry conditions.

3 Revolutionary has done nothing wrong, but is inside with Calvin Borel. You need to decide whether Calvin can work out a trip inside in the mud. He has done it before. Remember Castellano chose Normandy over Revolutionary. Wouldn’t be a major surprise to win. 6 Mylute has a chance and meets the numbers but will be overbet with Rosie. Did give up to Revolutionary in the lane in last rather easily.

8 Goldencents will be the speed of speeds, likely 7 lengths in front to the mile or beyond but will fold. While he is the closest thing to the lone speed and dangerous, I just don’t see him going all the way. 20 Vyjack is marooned in the 20 hole and hasn’t been training well. Not a win contender. 9 Overanalyze could be a surprise at a price. Ran a 99 Beyer last year in the Remsen but hasn’t repeated that this year. 11 Line of Battle from Europe has never been on dirt, so difficult to land on him in any of the slots. However, a third or fourth would not be out of the question.

You can’t bet them all, and as I said, the weather will likely be bad so take it easy.

Here is my safe bet:

$5 Exacta box: 5-14-16 = $30

Here is what I will bet:

$60 Win 5 = $60

$20 Exacta box = 5-14-16 = $120

$10 Exacta 5 over 3-6-9 = $30

Total $210

Good luck!

Mr. X