Monday, May 6, 2013

Kentucky Derby Epilogue

Thought we were a winner when Normandy Invasion took control at the top of the stretch. Then thought we were going to have an Orb/Normandy Invasion exacta. But Normandy really faded late. Maybe he would have been second if Castellano waited longer. Then I thought that Golden Soul was Verrazano (14 instead of 4). So even though we were right about a lot of things and horses, we still didn't collect.

Hated the track but it did seem to be very solid underneath the sloppy surface. Even though I said that my system wouldn't work on a sealed or sloppy track, it did.

I didn't evaluate Golden Soul because he had finished behind a number of horses in the Louisiana Derby, and I didn't think he could win. And he didn't. But today I did his numbers, and he qualified as a green horse, not red.

So the top five finishers were all green: having a three furlong time less than 38 seconds and a median energy distribution of less than 68%. The system worked and pointed out the contenders. We were right about a number of horses who received support at the windows but finished up the track. We were also right about Vyjack and the 20 hole. Verrazano, however, was a big disappointment. Overall it looked like the race was cleanly run with a minimum of bumps and traffic problems.

Having the best horse doesn't guarantee you the winner because of the twenty horses in the race. But Orb really looked good. As I said, we had a lot of things right, but still didn't collect. Better luck in the Preakness!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Will we see a Preakness?