Friday, August 23, 2013

The Travers Analysis - Saturday, August 24, 2013

It looks to me like 8 Palace Malice is the horse to beat. The Jim Dandy is the key race so I think that the horses coming out of that race are best. Palace Malice looks to be able to go the 10f based on my numbers. Palace Malice is working extremely well since the Jim Dandy, so it looks like all systems go for Pletcher and Mike Smith whom I'm not crazy about here at the Spa. At the very least, I think that Palace Malice will make the exacta.

6 Moreno is a dangerous speed horse working extremely well here since the Jim Dandy, too. He hasn't ever raced this far, so that is a question mark. My numbers say he can do it. Because his workouts are so good, I expect him to improve. On the negative side, everyone knows he is a speed horse, so they don't want him to get an easy lead. Chance to win and chance to fade even though he is a fresher horse and an improving horse since the shades.

5 Will Take Charge did nothing wrong in the Jim Dandy, finishing second behind Palace Malice. Has the best closing time; his numbers are good all around. His works since the Jim Dandy have been good. However, he has danced a lot of dances so he could regress. Lukas likes to run his horses.

2 Orb is the wild card. Been resting since the Triple Crown and had a great work here on 8/19 so he is ready. Been working steadily elsewhere so stamina should not be an issue. However, looking at his past performances, I'm not sure he is as good as these. Yes, he won the Derby on a sealed, sloppy track. But his Beyer numbers in the Preakness and Belmont are only 92. Could have been tired or he is just not good enough on a dry track. Add to the fact that he is a deep closer on a track where you need to be within 5 lengths of the leader at the second call. So even if he is ready, he needs to stay close. Too many question marks for me.

Here is what I will bet: exacta box with 8 Palace Malice over 6 Moreno, 5 Will Take Charge, 2 Orb

I will likely bet another exacta box: 8 Palace Malice and 6 Moreno

No sheet for Travers Day, but I may do a late Pick 4 play.

Good luck!

Mr. X


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the comments, I'll look for your pick 4. Good luck tomorrow. My wife is getting up at 4:00 am to get a table.

Mr. X said...

Hope you boxed the Travers horses.