Racing Calendar Updated for August 2013

At Meet Mr. X at the bottom of the page, I have updated the Racing Calendar which will give you the links to the dates on which a Doghouse Confidential was issued.

Doghouse Confidential Posted for Sunday, August 11, 2013

For those of you paying attention, yesterday's Doghouse yielded 7 A winners out of 8 races including a $35 horse that triggered two Pick 3's, the Grand Slam, and the late Pick 4. Made $1700, now plus for the meet.

Today's card is not great. Later races are better. Just go to the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.

Good luck!

Doghouse Posted for Saturday, August 10, 2013

Finally got the site working. You can now get a copy at the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.

Good luck!

Doghouse Confidential for Saturday, August 10, 2013

Had trouble posting the first Doghouse of the season, so here it is below:

DOGHOUSE CONFIDENTIAL SARATOGA STRATEGIES by Mr. X at www.sovas.net
Mr. & Mrs. X                                                                                                                                Saturday, August 10, 2013
R	#	TkMkr	Name	Comments
1	3	A	Ithastobegeorge	Cast; good finish last here; trainer doing well here; one to beat
	7	A	Moonlight Song	High speed; excellent work 7/30; ready; but 6 yr old; not best dist?
	2	B	Tug of War	Very sharp works; layoff, new trainer; likes Spa
	6	B	Tenango	Excuse last ; may bounce back to 90 B's; not best dist?
2	5	A	Expression	Looks to be right spot; others?; owner/trainer; dist specialist
	3	B	Greed and Fear	Maker/Ramsey claim in June; moves up; beaten by 5
	1	B	AnnsSmartDancr	Levine/JVel; doesn't win; gets rail which is only 1/30
3	2	A	The Sixties	+Cast layoff; Maker/Ramsey; stepping up; okay works; no prize
	3	A	Where's Danny	Won here in off turfer but beat 12; Kenneally/Rosario; bumped last, still won
7	7	A	Soul House	Looks best; good race here; Weaver/Cast; big favorite
	5	A	AmbssadrBridge	+Rosario; good work; main danger; Gyarmati?
	8	B	Even Got Quiet	No name trainer/jock; good race here; will like 7f; needs better start
	9	C	Charlie's Punch	Ness; Saez choice? Looks to run along
	10	C	Fiona's Hero	Rudy layoff after claim; good work with Rudy up; needs to improve
8	7	A	Leadem Ken	Stepping up for Maker/Ramsey; layoff; won at dist; +Cast
	10	A	Dangerous Lad	IOrtiz choice; stretching, excellent work; excuses at GP
	5	A	Abraham	Pletcher/JVel; first turf; excellent work; +shades
	3	B	Ghost Hunter	Racing w better; first turf; layoff but trainer change to Mott/Prado
				Watch AE's
				$1 Pick 4: 5-7-10/2-8-9/1/3-4-5-8= $36
9	8	A	Summer of Fun	Very tough race, but looks best; ready off layoff; Weaver hot; excellent works
	9	A	Barbie Wire	Chad Brown hot; stretching, excellent work; ready; stepping up
	2	A	Praia	McPeek; looks to want longer; class; chance inside w Garcia; slower?
		B	1,6,7
10	1	A	Wise Dan	Still the man; toting weight but beat most of these; soft okay
	7	B	Lea	Looks to close, 2nd behind 1, soft okay; +Rosario; improving
	6	B	King Kreesa	Consistent E, +100 B's, but will have company; dist specialist
				Exbx: 1/7-6   Ex: 1-7
11	8	A	Adirondack Dncr	One to beat; Rice/CVel; excellent work; won here
	4	A	North Star Boy	+Cast; excellent work; trainer okay; one to beat
	3	B	Namron	Klesaris/Prado; Del shipper; could surprise on inner; closer
	5	B	Short Shrift	Stepping up; horse for course, dist specialist; but E on inner; 2 will challenge
	6	C	Unbridled Logic	+Rosario/Levine; layoff; lesser B's
	1	C	Situational Ethic	Rail, consistent B's; but 0/4 Spa, 0/7 distance
	2	C	Bluegrass Spring	Claimed last; Rice 2nd entry; stretching; will want lead

Handicapped for fast, good. Was very bad early, hardly cashed but now heating up. Have been winning or breaking even. Still a way to go for even. Fifth race off the turf. Good luck!

Belmont Selections

Really don't like the race particularly because the track conditions are really changing. I think at post time we will probably still have a sealed track or muddy track. Don't see it being fast.

I only looked at the race now, and I'm not crazy about betting it. Having said that, I like the first three finishers of the Derby (Orb, Golden Soul, and Revolutionary) along with Freedom Child.

I don't know how I will bet the exacta's but I will bet a four horse triple box for sure.

Good luck.

Mr. X

Preakness Epilogue

I was very busy yesterday and didn't post. However, that doesn't mean I didn't bet.

The closest thing in my mind to a lock was Orb. I just couldn't see him losing to this bunch even though he had the rail. The weather again wasn't great.

The only way that I thought he would get beat is if one of the horses took off and led all the way around. But I looked at all the early horses and concluded that none could beat Orb in any event. I never would have bet Oxbow to be one of the early horses. To see if there was any track bias for the front end, I reviewed all of the earlier distance races which were won by horses closing from behind.

So in my mind, everything favored Orb to repeat, and I bet him with Mylute in a box (3 times more with Orb on top), then Orb on top with four others, but no Oxbow.

In the end, you should thank your lucky stars that I didn't post. Orb just didn't run his race.

Mr. X

Kentucky Derby Epilogue

Thought we were a winner when Normandy Invasion took control at the top of the stretch. Then thought we were going to have an Orb/Normandy Invasion exacta. But Normandy really faded late. Maybe he would have been second if Castellano waited longer. Then I thought that Golden Soul was Verrazano (14 instead of 4). So even though we were right about a lot of things and horses, we still didn't collect.

Hated the track but it did seem to be very solid underneath the sloppy surface. Even though I said that my system wouldn't work on a sealed or sloppy track, it did.

I didn't evaluate Golden Soul because he had finished behind a number of horses in the Louisiana Derby, and I didn't think he could win. And he didn't. But today I did his numbers, and he qualified as a green horse, not red.

So the top five finishers were all green: having a three furlong time less than 38 seconds and a median energy distribution of less than 68%. The system worked and pointed out the contenders. We were right about a number of horses who received support at the windows but finished up the track. We were also right about Vyjack and the 20 hole. Verrazano, however, was a big disappointment. Overall it looked like the race was cleanly run with a minimum of bumps and traffic problems.

Having the best horse doesn't guarantee you the winner because of the twenty horses in the race. But Orb really looked good. As I said, we had a lot of things right, but still didn't collect. Better luck in the Preakness!