In the Whirlawy, Haynesfield just overpowered the field. I still don't think he is a viable Derby candidate, but we'll see in the next race. We got a bad ride on our horse, but it really didn't matter. What was noteworthy was that both of my other horses did not finish second or third. Not good.
In the Risen Star, our second choice won. Our first choice went off the favorite after a layoff. While he didn't have to win, I thought that he would finish at least second. He did run into a lot of trouble during the race. None of my other horses finished second, third or fourth. Think about it. Out of thirteen horses, I had five - the winner, but none of the other horses. Bet all the closers, but the way the race was run, nobody really closed into a soft pace. The good news is that I was all wrong, so if I reverse my thinking, we'll hit it. Have to be optimistic.
We'll get them next time.
Mr. X
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Friday, February 6, 2009
Whirlaway at Aqueduct - Saturday, February 7, 2009
8th Race
In an upset, I like 3 Peace Town to defeat the big favorite, Haynesfield. Peace Town is a Laurel shipper from Trombetta. Looks to like the distance with the best final time, closing time and good energy distribution. Will need to stay close.
1 Haynesfield is another Asmussen trainee and has done nothing wrong. However, he looks to be past his optimum distance which is the mile and 70 yards, given his energy distribution which is too high. He had to fight in the stretch in last to beat a not so hot field. Very vulnerable at a short price. No thanks.
5 Zooger from Philadelphia could come from the clouds to be 2nd if Haynesfield stops. Good closing time and energy distribution but likely 10 lengths behind after 6 furlongs.
My bet:
$20 Ex: 3-1
$10 Ex: 1-3
$10 Ex: 3-5
Total $40
Good luck!
Mr. X
In an upset, I like 3 Peace Town to defeat the big favorite, Haynesfield. Peace Town is a Laurel shipper from Trombetta. Looks to like the distance with the best final time, closing time and good energy distribution. Will need to stay close.
1 Haynesfield is another Asmussen trainee and has done nothing wrong. However, he looks to be past his optimum distance which is the mile and 70 yards, given his energy distribution which is too high. He had to fight in the stretch in last to beat a not so hot field. Very vulnerable at a short price. No thanks.
5 Zooger from Philadelphia could come from the clouds to be 2nd if Haynesfield stops. Good closing time and energy distribution but likely 10 lengths behind after 6 furlongs.
My bet:
$20 Ex: 3-1
$10 Ex: 1-3
$10 Ex: 3-5
Total $40
Good luck!
Mr. X
Risen Star at Fair Grounds - Saturday, February 7, 2009
Race 9
Another Derby Trail race for 3 year olds going 8.5 furlongs, and a very good betting race.
7 Giant Oak looks best off a layoff, gets Prado, and working very well. One to beat. Good closing and final time. Beat Captain Candyman Can who won a stake in the last week or two.
IF SCRATCHED 6 Friesan Fire beat me in the Lecomte at a mile, comes back, Larry Jones trained, and inside which is good. Doesn't close as well so will be with the pace likely throughout. FAIR GROUNDS SHOWED SCRATCH EARLIER, NOW NOT SURE.
2 Indygo Mountain was the near favorite in the Lecomte, hit the gate and bobbled. Another chance, inside, and likely with the leaders. Looks to fade.
8 Dumar is an Asmussen/Bridgmohan, stepping up, tied for best closing time, good chance to be in the money.
10 Soul Warrior another Asumssen but gets P. Val. Other best closing time, stepping up from a maiden win.
New bet after scratch:
$5 Exbox: 7 with 2-8-10
$1 Tri: 7 / 2-8-10-11 / 2-8-10-11 and
$1 Tri: 2-8-10-11 / 7 /2-8-10-11
Total $54
My bet:
$2 Exbox: 7 with 2-6-8-10
$1 Tri: 6-7 / 2-6-7-8-10 / 2-6-7-8-10
Total $40
Good luck!
Mr. X
Another Derby Trail race for 3 year olds going 8.5 furlongs, and a very good betting race.
7 Giant Oak looks best off a layoff, gets Prado, and working very well. One to beat. Good closing and final time. Beat Captain Candyman Can who won a stake in the last week or two.
IF SCRATCHED 6 Friesan Fire beat me in the Lecomte at a mile, comes back, Larry Jones trained, and inside which is good. Doesn't close as well so will be with the pace likely throughout. FAIR GROUNDS SHOWED SCRATCH EARLIER, NOW NOT SURE.
2 Indygo Mountain was the near favorite in the Lecomte, hit the gate and bobbled. Another chance, inside, and likely with the leaders. Looks to fade.
8 Dumar is an Asmussen/Bridgmohan, stepping up, tied for best closing time, good chance to be in the money.
10 Soul Warrior another Asumssen but gets P. Val. Other best closing time, stepping up from a maiden win.
New bet after scratch:
$5 Exbox: 7 with 2-8-10
$1 Tri: 7 / 2-8-10-11 / 2-8-10-11 and
$1 Tri: 2-8-10-11 / 7 /2-8-10-11
Total $54
My bet:
$2 Exbox: 7 with 2-6-8-10
$1 Tri: 6-7 / 2-6-7-8-10 / 2-6-7-8-10
Total $40
Good luck!
Mr. X
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Recap: Holy Bull and Donn Handicap
In the Holy Bull prep for the Derby, Danger to Society never looked comfortable between the speeds and really showed almost nothing. Our other two horses finished third and fourth, not unexpected given their post positions, behind two longshot speed horses. I knew we were in trouble with Danger to Society when everyone seemed to pick him, including his trainer, Ken McPeek, who ridiculed the morning line and said that the horse would win. In the Pick3, I singled Danger to Society, with All in the Barbaro brother race won by a $63 horse, along with the winner in the Donn. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.
In the Donn, we picked the winner, Albertus Maximus ($8.20), and we had the right idea with a longshot speed horse (30-1) for second. Unfortunately, our speed horse (33-1) was a little slow out of the gate and didn't get to the front. We did not like the favorite, Arson Squad, who finished fourth. But we did have the winner and the third horse, Einstein, completing the Unexacta. Close but no cigar. Maybe next time.
Look for analysis of the next Derby prep here on the Blog.
Mr. X
In the Donn, we picked the winner, Albertus Maximus ($8.20), and we had the right idea with a longshot speed horse (30-1) for second. Unfortunately, our speed horse (33-1) was a little slow out of the gate and didn't get to the front. We did not like the favorite, Arson Squad, who finished fourth. But we did have the winner and the third horse, Einstein, completing the Unexacta. Close but no cigar. Maybe next time.
Look for analysis of the next Derby prep here on the Blog.
Mr. X
Friday, January 30, 2009
Donn Handicap at Gulfstream, Saturday, January 31, 2009
9th Race
Some of the old plodders in a Grade I race. I like the dangerous speed of 6 On Board Again to get into the exacta at a price. Frankel trained, horse is rested, and there is not much real speed in the race. On Board Again looks to get the lead and hold it until the middle of the stretch. Hopefully, he won't be pressed and can last into the exacta photo. I'll take my chances at 20-1.
2 Albertus Maximus is a rug specialist so we don't know how well he will adapt. He is inside and looks to get a good trip. He is a great closer with the best closing time. Likely winner.
10 Einstein is some horse and really looks too good to be true. Wins on all surfaces, but he is parked outside, and his trainer says that he doesn't like the Gulfstream surface. Great closing time as well. No surprise if he wins.
My bet:
$5 Exacta box: 2-6-10
$5 Exacta box: 2-6
$1 Tri box: 2-6-10
Total $46
Good luck!
Mr. X
Some of the old plodders in a Grade I race. I like the dangerous speed of 6 On Board Again to get into the exacta at a price. Frankel trained, horse is rested, and there is not much real speed in the race. On Board Again looks to get the lead and hold it until the middle of the stretch. Hopefully, he won't be pressed and can last into the exacta photo. I'll take my chances at 20-1.
2 Albertus Maximus is a rug specialist so we don't know how well he will adapt. He is inside and looks to get a good trip. He is a great closer with the best closing time. Likely winner.
10 Einstein is some horse and really looks too good to be true. Wins on all surfaces, but he is parked outside, and his trainer says that he doesn't like the Gulfstream surface. Great closing time as well. No surprise if he wins.
My bet:
$5 Exacta box: 2-6-10
$5 Exacta box: 2-6
$1 Tri box: 2-6-10
Total $46
Good luck!
Mr. X
Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on the Derby Trail, Saturday, January 31, 2009
Race 7
These races are hard to handicap and harder to bet. The best horse may be the one going on to the Triple Crown so the trainer doesn't have him cranked up, and he doesn't have to win. Many other horses don't look like they fit, or the trainer doesn't know what he has, so he is trying the big boys.
I think 11 Beethoven is the best horse in the race with the best closing time and good energy distribution. But Ward doesn't care about winning this race for his Derby horse. Coupled with an impossible post (except for Big Brown who won from the outside), I will bet against Beethoven to win. Borel will head for the rail right after the break.
The horse that looks to be in the right spot is 2 Danger to Society. He is inside, has Albarado, and has good numbers. He has not lost in his first two races and won easily in his last. McPeek is also a hot trainer with three wins, one second, and two thirds in his last seven races. I doubt that Danger will be a Derby contender unless he improves his closing time significantly.
10 West Side Bernie is another one on the outside who will have trouble getting near the front. In his case, the 9f looks like a stretch so you know he will be trying. He is not a Derby horse. He is working well and may try to steal the lead from the outside.
My bet:
$20 Win: 2
$10 Exacta box: 2-11
$5 Exacta box: 2-10
Total $50
By the way, Barbaro's little brother, Nicanor, is running for the first time in the 8th race. Everyone has high hopes for the horse. Don't bet him, though. Likely to be wildly overbet.
Good luck!
Mr. X
These races are hard to handicap and harder to bet. The best horse may be the one going on to the Triple Crown so the trainer doesn't have him cranked up, and he doesn't have to win. Many other horses don't look like they fit, or the trainer doesn't know what he has, so he is trying the big boys.
I think 11 Beethoven is the best horse in the race with the best closing time and good energy distribution. But Ward doesn't care about winning this race for his Derby horse. Coupled with an impossible post (except for Big Brown who won from the outside), I will bet against Beethoven to win. Borel will head for the rail right after the break.
The horse that looks to be in the right spot is 2 Danger to Society. He is inside, has Albarado, and has good numbers. He has not lost in his first two races and won easily in his last. McPeek is also a hot trainer with three wins, one second, and two thirds in his last seven races. I doubt that Danger will be a Derby contender unless he improves his closing time significantly.
10 West Side Bernie is another one on the outside who will have trouble getting near the front. In his case, the 9f looks like a stretch so you know he will be trying. He is not a Derby horse. He is working well and may try to steal the lead from the outside.
My bet:
$20 Win: 2
$10 Exacta box: 2-11
$5 Exacta box: 2-10
Total $50
By the way, Barbaro's little brother, Nicanor, is running for the first time in the 8th race. Everyone has high hopes for the horse. Don't bet him, though. Likely to be wildly overbet.
Good luck!
Mr. X
Derby Trail: Holy Bull
This year we are going to follow the prep races more closely and handicap them when possible. We'll concurrently keep our contenders list as we have in the past,
I will post my bets late tonight or tomorrow for the 9f Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Maybe the Donn as well.
Mr. X
I will post my bets late tonight or tomorrow for the 9f Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Maybe the Donn as well.
Mr. X
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