Friday, January 30, 2009

Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on the Derby Trail, Saturday, January 31, 2009

Race 7
These races are hard to handicap and harder to bet. The best horse may be the one going on to the Triple Crown so the trainer doesn't have him cranked up, and he doesn't have to win. Many other horses don't look like they fit, or the trainer doesn't know what he has, so he is trying the big boys.

I think 11 Beethoven is the best horse in the race with the best closing time and good energy distribution. But Ward doesn't care about winning this race for his Derby horse. Coupled with an impossible post (except for Big Brown who won from the outside), I will bet against Beethoven to win. Borel will head for the rail right after the break.

The horse that looks to be in the right spot is 2 Danger to Society. He is inside, has Albarado, and has good numbers. He has not lost in his first two races and won easily in his last. McPeek is also a hot trainer with three wins, one second, and two thirds in his last seven races. I doubt that Danger will be a Derby contender unless he improves his closing time significantly.

10 West Side Bernie is another one on the outside who will have trouble getting near the front. In his case, the 9f looks like a stretch so you know he will be trying. He is not a Derby horse. He is working well and may try to steal the lead from the outside.

My bet:

$20 Win: 2

$10 Exacta box: 2-11

$5 Exacta box: 2-10

Total $50

By the way, Barbaro's little brother, Nicanor, is running for the first time in the 8th race. Everyone has high hopes for the horse. Don't bet him, though. Likely to be wildly overbet.

Good luck!

Mr. X

No comments: