In the Holy Bull prep for the Derby, Danger to Society never looked comfortable between the speeds and really showed almost nothing. Our other two horses finished third and fourth, not unexpected given their post positions, behind two longshot speed horses. I knew we were in trouble with Danger to Society when everyone seemed to pick him, including his trainer, Ken McPeek, who ridiculed the morning line and said that the horse would win. In the Pick3, I singled Danger to Society, with All in the Barbaro brother race won by a $63 horse, along with the winner in the Donn. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.
In the Donn, we picked the winner, Albertus Maximus ($8.20), and we had the right idea with a longshot speed horse (30-1) for second. Unfortunately, our speed horse (33-1) was a little slow out of the gate and didn't get to the front. We did not like the favorite, Arson Squad, who finished fourth. But we did have the winner and the third horse, Einstein, completing the Unexacta. Close but no cigar. Maybe next time.
Look for analysis of the next Derby prep here on the Blog.
Mr. X
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Friday, January 30, 2009
Donn Handicap at Gulfstream, Saturday, January 31, 2009
9th Race
Some of the old plodders in a Grade I race. I like the dangerous speed of 6 On Board Again to get into the exacta at a price. Frankel trained, horse is rested, and there is not much real speed in the race. On Board Again looks to get the lead and hold it until the middle of the stretch. Hopefully, he won't be pressed and can last into the exacta photo. I'll take my chances at 20-1.
2 Albertus Maximus is a rug specialist so we don't know how well he will adapt. He is inside and looks to get a good trip. He is a great closer with the best closing time. Likely winner.
10 Einstein is some horse and really looks too good to be true. Wins on all surfaces, but he is parked outside, and his trainer says that he doesn't like the Gulfstream surface. Great closing time as well. No surprise if he wins.
My bet:
$5 Exacta box: 2-6-10
$5 Exacta box: 2-6
$1 Tri box: 2-6-10
Total $46
Good luck!
Mr. X
Some of the old plodders in a Grade I race. I like the dangerous speed of 6 On Board Again to get into the exacta at a price. Frankel trained, horse is rested, and there is not much real speed in the race. On Board Again looks to get the lead and hold it until the middle of the stretch. Hopefully, he won't be pressed and can last into the exacta photo. I'll take my chances at 20-1.
2 Albertus Maximus is a rug specialist so we don't know how well he will adapt. He is inside and looks to get a good trip. He is a great closer with the best closing time. Likely winner.
10 Einstein is some horse and really looks too good to be true. Wins on all surfaces, but he is parked outside, and his trainer says that he doesn't like the Gulfstream surface. Great closing time as well. No surprise if he wins.
My bet:
$5 Exacta box: 2-6-10
$5 Exacta box: 2-6
$1 Tri box: 2-6-10
Total $46
Good luck!
Mr. X
Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on the Derby Trail, Saturday, January 31, 2009
Race 7
These races are hard to handicap and harder to bet. The best horse may be the one going on to the Triple Crown so the trainer doesn't have him cranked up, and he doesn't have to win. Many other horses don't look like they fit, or the trainer doesn't know what he has, so he is trying the big boys.
I think 11 Beethoven is the best horse in the race with the best closing time and good energy distribution. But Ward doesn't care about winning this race for his Derby horse. Coupled with an impossible post (except for Big Brown who won from the outside), I will bet against Beethoven to win. Borel will head for the rail right after the break.
The horse that looks to be in the right spot is 2 Danger to Society. He is inside, has Albarado, and has good numbers. He has not lost in his first two races and won easily in his last. McPeek is also a hot trainer with three wins, one second, and two thirds in his last seven races. I doubt that Danger will be a Derby contender unless he improves his closing time significantly.
10 West Side Bernie is another one on the outside who will have trouble getting near the front. In his case, the 9f looks like a stretch so you know he will be trying. He is not a Derby horse. He is working well and may try to steal the lead from the outside.
My bet:
$20 Win: 2
$10 Exacta box: 2-11
$5 Exacta box: 2-10
Total $50
By the way, Barbaro's little brother, Nicanor, is running for the first time in the 8th race. Everyone has high hopes for the horse. Don't bet him, though. Likely to be wildly overbet.
Good luck!
Mr. X
These races are hard to handicap and harder to bet. The best horse may be the one going on to the Triple Crown so the trainer doesn't have him cranked up, and he doesn't have to win. Many other horses don't look like they fit, or the trainer doesn't know what he has, so he is trying the big boys.
I think 11 Beethoven is the best horse in the race with the best closing time and good energy distribution. But Ward doesn't care about winning this race for his Derby horse. Coupled with an impossible post (except for Big Brown who won from the outside), I will bet against Beethoven to win. Borel will head for the rail right after the break.
The horse that looks to be in the right spot is 2 Danger to Society. He is inside, has Albarado, and has good numbers. He has not lost in his first two races and won easily in his last. McPeek is also a hot trainer with three wins, one second, and two thirds in his last seven races. I doubt that Danger will be a Derby contender unless he improves his closing time significantly.
10 West Side Bernie is another one on the outside who will have trouble getting near the front. In his case, the 9f looks like a stretch so you know he will be trying. He is not a Derby horse. He is working well and may try to steal the lead from the outside.
My bet:
$20 Win: 2
$10 Exacta box: 2-11
$5 Exacta box: 2-10
Total $50
By the way, Barbaro's little brother, Nicanor, is running for the first time in the 8th race. Everyone has high hopes for the horse. Don't bet him, though. Likely to be wildly overbet.
Good luck!
Mr. X
Derby Trail: Holy Bull
This year we are going to follow the prep races more closely and handicap them when possible. We'll concurrently keep our contenders list as we have in the past,
I will post my bets late tonight or tomorrow for the 9f Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Maybe the Donn as well.
Mr. X
I will post my bets late tonight or tomorrow for the 9f Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Maybe the Donn as well.
Mr. X
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Breeders' Cup Recap
We hit three races out of eight for the two days with a triple ($144), and two exactas ($13.40 and $47.60)
Usually, if you hit one race during Breeders' Cup you will be profitable, but I lost $200 after all was said and done. Clueless in the turf races, betting against the Europeans figuring that the turf would be too hard.
Of course, I never figured Curlin to lose to the Europeans. It must have been the track which I hated. Curlin could never lose to Tiago on a dirt track.
Weather was wonderful, personalities were fun, but I really hated the track surface that acted like a turf course. In retrospect, I'm surprised at how well I did in finding three winning races given the surface.
Hope you had fun.
Mr. X
Usually, if you hit one race during Breeders' Cup you will be profitable, but I lost $200 after all was said and done. Clueless in the turf races, betting against the Europeans figuring that the turf would be too hard.
Of course, I never figured Curlin to lose to the Europeans. It must have been the track which I hated. Curlin could never lose to Tiago on a dirt track.
Weather was wonderful, personalities were fun, but I really hated the track surface that acted like a turf course. In retrospect, I'm surprised at how well I did in finding three winning races given the surface.
Hope you had fun.
Mr. X
Friday, October 24, 2008
Breeders' Cup Doghouse Posted for Saturday, October 25
I have posted the last five races for the Breeders' Cup card. Very difficult, and it only takes one race to make a profit for the day.
As usual, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the Doghouse Confidential or go to the Racing Calendar.
We hit two of three winners today which is a feat in itself even though short-priced. We did hit one of the three spot plays with the exacta of Zenyatta over Cocoa Beach. Broke even for the day.
These are the best and the most beautiful horses in the world. Have fun and good luck!
Mr. X
As usual, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the Doghouse Confidential or go to the Racing Calendar.
We hit two of three winners today which is a feat in itself even though short-priced. We did hit one of the three spot plays with the exacta of Zenyatta over Cocoa Beach. Broke even for the day.
These are the best and the most beautiful horses in the world. Have fun and good luck!
Mr. X
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Breeder's Cup Spot Plays for Ladies Day Friday
Probably the most difficult cards of the year. It is very easy to lose all the races. But you can make good money winning one or two races, so don't be discouraged.
You are supposed to start slow, to conserve your bankroll for 14 races. But the very first race is extremely chaotic, and I don't like the favorite. Based on my energy distribution numbers thus far at Santa Anita, closers are winning everything (meaning their times not their running lines). So here is what I will bet to start things off.
3rd Race
All of my horses have good energy distribution times and closing times with the exception of Dearest Trickski who has the best final time and is included. Let it ride!
$1 Tri Box: 3-6-8-9-13 = $60
5th
10 Stardom Bound tough to go against, syn specialist, good closing time, %E
4 Sky Diva from the east, one to beat, but no fake dirt
8 CS Silk dangerous speed, could take all, Alb choice
6 Van Lear Rose looks lesser from WO, but very good closing time
$5 Exbx: 4-8-10 = $30
$1 Tri: 4-8-10/4-8-6-10/4-8-6-10 = $18
7th
1 Zenyatta too much for these, too tough, wins another
3 Cocoa Beach seems to get better, do different things, good work on syn
$20 Ex: 1-3 = $20
$10 Ex: 3-1 = $10
I will likely post some spot plays for Saturday's card. Check back.
Good luck, and let's have a safe and successful Breeder's Cup Double Day.
Mr. X
You are supposed to start slow, to conserve your bankroll for 14 races. But the very first race is extremely chaotic, and I don't like the favorite. Based on my energy distribution numbers thus far at Santa Anita, closers are winning everything (meaning their times not their running lines). So here is what I will bet to start things off.
3rd Race
All of my horses have good energy distribution times and closing times with the exception of Dearest Trickski who has the best final time and is included. Let it ride!
$1 Tri Box: 3-6-8-9-13 = $60
5th
10 Stardom Bound tough to go against, syn specialist, good closing time, %E
4 Sky Diva from the east, one to beat, but no fake dirt
8 CS Silk dangerous speed, could take all, Alb choice
6 Van Lear Rose looks lesser from WO, but very good closing time
$5 Exbx: 4-8-10 = $30
$1 Tri: 4-8-10/4-8-6-10/4-8-6-10 = $18
7th
1 Zenyatta too much for these, too tough, wins another
3 Cocoa Beach seems to get better, do different things, good work on syn
$20 Ex: 1-3 = $20
$10 Ex: 3-1 = $10
I will likely post some spot plays for Saturday's card. Check back.
Good luck, and let's have a safe and successful Breeder's Cup Double Day.
Mr. X
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)