Breeder's Cup Epilogue 2022

 Everyone who wants to bet the races has to have a plan. Mine was to bet the pick 3's, 4's and 5's and then anything else that presented good value. A good plan starts with knowing when the races will be run. Unfortunately, I still haven't learned that lesson, presuming that the first Breeder's Cup race would be after 2 pm when televised. So I didn't bet my single, Goodnightolive as the race was over, and only had a few minutes to bet the next race. Screwed that up, too, by not betting a pick 3 that paid over $1500 for $2. Had the $87 horse as a B.

The Doghouse had 8 winners from 9 races with 6 A's and 2 B's including the $87 horse. Appleby won two races and Irad won one race while Rosario finished in the money four times. So there was no reason that I shouldn't have made a killing.

But after my issues at the beginning, I became reckless and bet a number of pick 4's, 5's, and even a pick 6 which I rarely do. Unfortunately, we didn't have the winner in the sixth race which caused a number of bets to lose. I was now down about $500 using my surprising wealth from Friday. But in the end, I hit the late pick 3 and pick 4 to bail me out for a profit of $100 for the day. Plus $600 for the Breeder's Cup two days. Woulda, shoulda, coulda.

Saturday Breeder's Cup Doghouse Posted, November 5, 2022

 In a complete surprise, I made money today hitting the ridiculously easy exacta with Forte over Cave Rock for $27. Should have paid about $12, so I'll take it for the only two real threats in the race.

Also, hit the Pick 4 for a quarter of $1800, a profitable Friday even though the card was difficult.

Keeneland is playing like Saratoga with a short stretch on dirt with horses having to be near the lead at the top of the stretch. On the turf, favor the inside runners and bet against horses on the outside to win. Additionally, lean on Rosario and Irad Ortiz who seem to be getting the best mounts. Charlie Appleby, trainer, for Godolphin in England won two races today and is loaded for tomorrow. William Buick is his primary rider. Give extra weight to anything he runs. He mentioned today that Modern Games in the mile is his most likely winner tomorrow. 

Go to meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Breeder's Cup Friday Doghouse Posted, November 4, 2022

 Just posted the Doghouse for Friday's Breeder's Cup races. Don't know if it helps. Ridiculously difficult given the two year-olds, and even more chaos with the turf races invaded by the foreign horses with limited information.

If I can win two races each day, I will break even or make some money. Unfortunately, I usually make a major deposit over the two days. Really take it easy on Friday and be a little more brave on Saturday.

I will be posted tomorrow night for Saturday.

As always, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button. 

Good luck!

Sunday Doghouse Posted, September 4

 Last Doghouse was not good at all except that it did have the Pick 5 for $1100. But it would have taken a ticket of $300 or more. No thanks.

Another difficult card today for likely the last dry day of the meet. Again, tread lightly with many contentious races. 

As always, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the Doghouse Confidential button. Good luck!

Doghouse Posted for Friday, September 2

 We had the Travers winner and the big exacta, along with the Pick 4 (twice), double and triple in the next race. So a good day overall even though I did not add a horse after a scratch in the Pick 5 that would have paid $568. So it goes.

Today's card is extremely difficult, probably the most contentious of the meet, so take it easy. Difficult to bet the Pick 5 or Pick 4, likely too expensive.

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button. Good luck!

Travers Doghouse Posted for Late Pick 5

I love Epicenter in the Travers, but I just can't ignore the track record time of Cyberknife in the Haskell at Monmouth who has a chance to upset. Brad Cox (Cyberknife) knows what he is doing. Meets my numbers, but does look a bit light against Epicenter. Early Voting with Brown is always a threat, and I just can't ignore Rich Strike who comes from way out of it and is working great here. But in the end, it is an exacta box with Epicenter and Cyberknife. I will also bet smaller boxes with each of these with the other two.

I like the middle Pick 5. Think it has a good chance.

Been picking winners, but cashing less. Always seems that there is one horse knocking me out of the Pick 5.

Go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the Doghouse Confidential button.

Weather is great and the track is tightening up. Good luck!

Doghouse Posted for Wednesday, August 17

 Had 8 of 11 winners on the Saturday Doghouse, with 6 A horses. But still managed to lose big when Jose Ortiz blew the ride on the big favorite in the feature, Regal Glory. Would have made over $500 hitting the Grand Slam and the late Pick 5. So it goes.

Today is really another bad card with impending rain showers so take it easy. The track will continue to change making it very difficult to focus on the winning track bias.

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Doghouse Posted for Saturday, August 13

 Been hitting or just missing Pick 3, 4, and 5 since last Doghouse on August 3. Same with Grand Slam. That day the sheet had all nine winners with 7 of 9 A's. Hit the early Pick 5 for $630. Definitely heating up for the second half.

As usual, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good late Pick 5 for only $20. Good luck!

Doghouse Posted for Wednesday, August 3

 Again, not a great card including a jump race. Have been doing very poorly, so take it easy. Can't seem to catch a break. Had six horses in the final leg of the pick 4 and didn't hit it. The good news is that historically I do much better in the second half of the meet. Let's hope so.

Just go to the Meet Mr. X page, and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Saw both Jackie's Warrior and Epicenter on Saturday. Such beautiful and gifted horses!

Good luck!

Doghouse Confidential Posted for Jim Dandy Day, July 30

 Just posted the Doghouse for today. Not a great card for a big day, but we will take it. Only a four horse race for the Jim Dandy, and Jackie's Warrior will be a prohibitive and deserving favorite for the Vanderbilt.

Had a terrible day on Wednesday missing the exacta twice near the wire. On the other hand, Mrs. X hit a $323 triple. Insulting!

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Doghouse Confidential for Wednesday (7/27) Posted

 Just posted the first Doghouse Confidential for the Saratoga season. Not a great card. 

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Losing but not terrible. Hitting some good ones but can't keep the money in my pocket. So what else is new.

Good luck!

Belmont Stakes 2022

 After screwing up the Preakness for betting against Chad Brown and Early Voting, I'm back to backing 6 Mo Donegal who was my pick in the Derby. Has to stay close, can't be too far back. Irad choice (over Nest) for Pletcher who loves to win the Belmont.

1 We The People meets my numbers, has the right running style for this race, and the pedigree. But I don't like him. Looks dressed up from the sealed track win in the Peter Pan and will struggle on the lead here, I think, presuming 3 Nest will go after him. Mo Donegal and Nest, the filly, are both owned in part by Repole Stables. So I am assuming that the only reason she is in the race is to keep We The People honest and allow Mo Donegal to close.

5 Creative Minister looks to be improving and could hit the exacta. But we can't ignore 4 Rich Strike who ran like a crazy horse in the Derby and has been working very well at Churchill and will likely like the Belmont track as well. Has to stay closer if he is to win.

Here is the safe bet: 

$2 exacta box: 4-5-6

My bet:

$20 exacta box: 4-6 = $40

$10 exacta box: 5-6 = $20

Good luck!

Preakness 2022

 To me, not a great betting race. 8 Epicenter is once again the horse to beat. The race goes through him. There are a few horses in here that don't belong or can't win: 3 Fenwick, 6 Happy Jack, 7 Armagnac, and 2  Creative Minister. Remember I said the same thing about Rich Strike in the Derby.

4 Secret Oath has to show me she belongs with the boys. No thanks. 1 Simplification is a Florida horse who will be okay with the extremely hot weather but just can't win. 

That leaves 5 Early Voting who ran a great race in the Wood but faltered at the end to Mo Donegal at 9f. Don't like that. May be improving but wintered here in the north, so I am betting that the heat will be too much for him. Bet against Chad Brown at your peril. Will likely try to wire the field.

9 Skippylongstocking finished behind Early Voting in the Wood, but ran very well for third. He is a Florida horse who will not be handicapped by the heat. Also shows a bullet 5f work at Pimlico so we know that he likes the track. He is 20-1.

Keep an eye on how the horses are handling the heat before the race.

Here is the bet: 

Safe bet:

$5 exacta box: 8-9 =10

My bet:

$20 exacta: 8-9

$10 exacta: 9-8

Good luck!

Mr. X

Derby Final Thoughts

 While we discussed the ability of a three year old to improve dramatically, 21 Rich Strike had no chance on paper. I dismissed him in about 10 seconds. An improvement is one thing. But this horse improved about 40 Beyer points to a 101 for the Derby. Unheard of. Additionally, he got a dream trip from his jockey as he was never stopped when closing inside for the win, passing essentially the entire field. Crazy.

Our choice, 1 Mo Donegal needed everything to go his way because he is a deep closer. I had hoped he would get out of the gate and at least get position around 14, in front of about 6 horses. Unfortunately, it looked to me that he got stuck in the gate for at least two steps. Irad said it was a slow start. During the week, there was an interview with Mike Smith who said that the new 20-horse gate was narrower than other gates and large horses had trouble pushing off in the gate at the start. He said that Zengatta wouldn't even fit in the gate. In any event, Mo Donegal ran a great race after the start closing on the outside to finish fifth. Irad had to go wide, because there was a wall of horses in front of him, with Rich Strike getting the inside path. I had hoped that Mo would get the kind of trip that Rich Strike got, but it wasn't to be.

Everything else followed what we thought would happen. A very quick pace with 3 Epicenter keeping his rail position, then moving out. Zandon followed that move but was never going to get past Epicenter.

Had multiple Oaks/Derby double tickets with the four horses we had, so lost everything. Would have cleaned up if Mo had won. But woulda, coulda, shoulda - lost big time.

Onto the Preakness.

Kentucky Derby 2022 Doghouse Confidential Posted

This is a real competitive field. Looks like weather will cooperate.

1 Mo Donegal is my choice. Read all about it at the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button. 

Made over $400 on Oaks Day today and have live doubles going in the Oaks/Derby double.

Good luck!

Mr. X 

2022 Kentucky Derby Contenders Characterized

 Yes, I'm still here evaluating the contenders for Saturday's Kentucky Derby as I have done for the past twenty years or so. This evaluation is only for the winner and does not consider final time. That analysis on what I will bet, will be done by Friday night or Saturday morning.

This year's group seems to be very talented, so it was somewhat a surprise at how the horses fell into the three categories. I really liked Cyberknife before I did my analysis, but now he is a throwout. Handicapping this year is complicated by the potential of a wet and muddy track. We will see.

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button. Good luck!