Sunday, September 6, 2020

Derby Final Thoughts

 Obviously, we were very disappointed that Tiz the Law, the hometown horse, didn't win. He ran his race and just couldn't get by Authentic who was a throwout as not meeting my numbers as being able to get the 10f. It could be that Tiz doesn't like Churchill Downs, the only two losses of his career.

I started in 2000 with my numbers categorizing horses by the median energy distribution and last three furlong time. Authentic was red, meaning he did not meet my numbers, i.e. couldn't get the 10f. Leaving out Mine That Bird (didn't calculate his numbers but he qualified) and Super Saver who was yellow (both ran on sealed tracks); there was only one horse who won that didn't meet my numbers: Big Brown. He turned out to be just better than the rest of the horses that year and overpowered them. I did get some satisfaction in the Belmont when he refused to go the mile and one-half Belmont.

This year, we won't get to see Authentic run the mile and one-half as the Belmont was already run at the nine furlong distance. However, barring some injury or other problems, I think it is very possible that Authentic could be a super horse in the future, likely even better next year if he runs. Keep a close eye on him!


Anonymous said...

Looking forward to your analysis. I felt like this article used your information without giving you credit!

Good luck, Bob

Mr. X said...

Yes, it is a good analysis, but the energy distribution tells you that horses can go further. Also, at this point, I am not looking at final time. But their analysis is good. On the other hand, I have been doing my analysis grouping energy distribution with the last three furlong times since before 2000. Good luck!