Saturday, August 23, 2014

Travers and Stakes Pick 4, August 23, 2014

To me, this is a three-horse race between Bayern, Tonalist, and Wicked Strong. These all stand out, and I won't bet anyone else. Don't think it is such a great betting race, however, because it is difficult to separate the three.

2 Bayern is an interesting horse. Whistled in the Haskell at 9f in an okay paced race. The difficult part is that the horse ran faster at the end and has the best closing time of the three. Not what I expected. So he meets my criteria of getting 10f rather easily. Bayern has never run on the more tiring Spa track versus the glib surface favoring front runners at Monmouth.

6 Tonalist won the Belmont at 12f and looked like he wasn't fully cranked for the Jim Dandy. But he just may be a better 10f horse than the rest. A little bit upright and not going past Wicked Strong that day.

7 Wicked Strong was our Derby horse who got into a lot of trouble. But his Wood Memorial time was the best of all the Derby preps. Jerkens put the blinkers on him in the Jim Dandy, and he ran much better. Looked as if he wouldn't let Tonalist pass him at all. Maybe he's turned the corner.

I think the pace of the race will have Wicked Strong and Tonalist much closer to Bayern knowing that they can't let Bayern get away. Remember that Bayern has the best closing time, so if there is a moderate pace with no pressure, Bayern will gallop. But my numbers suggest that the three will be relatively close to one another at the 6f mark.

If I had to pick the order, I think that the small edge goes to Wicked Strong. I will bet all three in an Exacta box and then likely bet Wicked Strong over the other two again.

Finally, I have posted the all Stakes Pick 4, races 9-12, ending with the Travers. Just go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck to all!

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