Everyone wants to see a Triple Crown winner including me. So one part of me will be rooting for 2 California Chrome. But after watching many Belmont's where I thought the Triple Crown were locks, I have to go with the odds in that no horse has done it for the last 36 years.
2 California Chrome is the horse to beat. No doubt about it. But three races in five weeks is a killer, especially against dangerous, fresh horses like 9 Wicked Strong and 11 Tonalist. Wicked Strong was my pick for the Derby but he had traffic trouble and never got to daylight which he needs to accelerate. Maybe he isn't good enough, but the distance is best for him. Tonalist is a lightly raced horse that meets my numbers. I tried to leave him out, but I can't. Won at Belmont in the slop and broke his maiden at 9f. Presumably he will be at or need the lead with Chrome and 7 Samraat. He could last, but things need to go right for him. 8 Commissioner is a Pletcher - Winstar Farms who breed for the classics and distance. He has had some very bad trips and bad racing luck. He could hit the board and surprise.
Ride on Curlin has run in both classics and may be tired. Rosario gets off to ride Tonalist so you have to discount his chances. Commanding Curve looks to be too late and too far back.
Here is the safe bet:
$2 Exacta box: 2-8-9-11 = $24
Here is what I will bet:
$1 Triple box: 2-8-9-11 = $24
$5 Exacta box: 2-8-9-11 = $60
$10 Exacta: 9-11 over 2-9-11 = $40
Total $124
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