Friday, August 27, 2010

Travers Spot Play, Saturday, August 28, 2010

Interesting match up of horses from the Haskell and the Jim Dandy. Most of the pundits think that the Haskell was the stronger race. My numbers say that the Jim Dandy was the better race.

5 A Little Warm looks like the horse to beat. Won the Jim Dandy in good time, but has the right energy distribution to go the 10 furlongs. The main danger is 8 Fly Down who closed well at 36.6 seconds for the last three furlongs even though he took up sharply in the stretch.

All the other horses seem to be well-matched. But I like some longshots to close, maybe hit the exacta, and hopefully fill out the trifecta. 7 Afleet Express has good numbers to close with a good final time in the Jim Dandy. I can't dismiss 6 Ice Box who has showed nothing since his win in the Florida Derby which I cashed. But he had great numbers in that race and hit the gate in the Haskell. I'm looking for him to bounce back. The final horse is the dark one, 3 Admiral Alex. With only one start, his energy distribution and final 3 furlong times are very good. In fact, he had the second best closing time. While his final time wasn't great, he could improve and surprise by getting in the money.

The bet:

Ex: 5-8 with 3-6-7

Exbx: 5-8

Tri: 5-8 with 3-5-6-7-8 with 3-5-6-7-8

Good luck!

Mr. X

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