Mr. X Hits the Belmont

We finally hit a good one. It isn't everyday that we hit a $348 exacta.

Had it 2.5 times (see post below) and bet another $20 to win on Tonalist when he drifted up to 14-1. However, you can never have enough money on a winning horse!

Cleared over $900. We'll take it!

Mr. X

2014 Belmont Stakes

Everyone wants to see a Triple Crown winner including me. So one part of me will be rooting for 2 California Chrome. But after watching many Belmont's where I thought the Triple Crown were locks, I have to go with the odds in that no horse has done it  for the last 36 years.

2 California Chrome is the horse to beat. No doubt about it. But three races in five weeks is a killer, especially against dangerous, fresh horses like 9 Wicked Strong and 11 Tonalist. Wicked Strong was my pick for the Derby but he had traffic trouble and never got to daylight which he needs to accelerate. Maybe he isn't good enough, but the distance is best for him. Tonalist is a lightly raced horse that meets my numbers. I tried to leave him out, but I can't. Won at Belmont in the slop and broke his maiden at 9f. Presumably he will be at or need the lead with Chrome and 7 Samraat. He could last, but things need to go right for him. 8 Commissioner is a Pletcher - Winstar Farms who breed for the classics and distance. He has had some very bad trips and bad racing luck. He could hit the board and surprise.

Ride on Curlin has run in both classics and may be tired. Rosario gets off to ride Tonalist so you have to discount his chances. Commanding Curve looks to be too late and too far back.

Here is the safe bet:

$2 Exacta box: 2-8-9-11 = $24

Here is what I will bet:

$1 Triple box: 2-8-9-11 = $24

$5 Exacta box: 2-8-9-11 = $60

$10 Exacta: 9-11 over 2-9-11 = $40

Total $124

2014 Preakness

Based upon my numbers, 5 Bayern and 8 Social Inclusion will go to the lead and try to bury 3 California Chrome. I have them both faster than California Chrome by seven lengths at 6f. But neither appear to be able to go the distance. 

1 Dynamic Impact is the key horse to get into the exacta and may win. Looks to stalk along the rail and eventually get out and through horses. He has the best final time in the race and the best closing time along with 3 California Chrome. So it is a two-horse race to the wire.

Here is the safe bet:

$2 exacta box: 1-3-5-8 = $24

Here is what I will bet:

$40 exacta box: 1-3 = $80

$10 exacta: 1-3 over 5-8 = $40

Total $120

2014 Kentucky Derby Analysis Posted

It's that time again and time for us to cash.

Just go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Maybe we can all be Wicked Strong this year.

Good luck!

Mr. X

2014 Derby Contenders Posted

As I have done in the past years, I have posted the Derby Contenders based on energy distribution and last three furlong times. These criteria have shown to be very reliable in predicting the winning horse from the top category. Any horse can come second or third.

You can find the list at the Meet Mr. X page by clicking on the red Doghouse Confidential button. You can also access the page at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.

Remember these criteria are only to separate contenders. At this point, I have not looked at final times or how they are training at Churchill.

Hopefully, we can get a fast track as the numbers are only good for the fast or good track.

I will post an analysis of the Derby either the night before or the day of, depending on conditions.

Mr. X

Late Pick 4 for Friday

Putting in a $0.50 pick 4 singling the Princess of Sylmar:

7th 5-7
8th 2-3-4-5-10-11-12
9th 2-4-6-8-10-12-13-14
10th 6

total $56

Good luck!

Sunday Doghouse Posted, August 25, 2013

Just posted a Doghouse for today. Many firsters and guessing games, so take it easy. Didn't cash big on the Travers, but that is the way it goes.

Go to the red Doghouse Confidential button on the Meet Mr. X page or the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.

Good luck! Just fantastic weather.

Mr. X