Just posted a Doghouse for today. Many firsters and guessing games, so take it easy. Didn't cash big on the Travers, but that is the way it goes.
Go to the red Doghouse Confidential button on the Meet Mr. X page or the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.
Good luck! Just fantastic weather.
Mr. X
Sunday, August 25, 2013
Saturday, August 24, 2013
Travers Epilogue
If anyone was smart enough to box all four of the horses selected for $2, you would have won:
exacta: $313
triple: $1,950
superfecta: $5,098
Of course, I didn't. Only bet it the way I said I would with Palace Malice making the exacta. Unfortunately, the horse stumbled coming out of the gate and went wide throughout.
I did bet Moreno across the board at 31-1, so I made about $50 for the race. Big deal!
You have to bet it right! Next time.
Mr. X
Travers Pick 4 Posted
Sorry for the late post. I have posted the Pick 4 for races 9-12 at the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.
Good luck!
Good luck!
Friday, August 23, 2013
The Travers Analysis - Saturday, August 24, 2013
It looks to me like 8 Palace Malice is the horse to beat. The Jim Dandy is the key race so I think that the horses coming out of that race are best. Palace Malice looks to be able to go the 10f based on my numbers. Palace Malice is working extremely well since the Jim Dandy, so it looks like all systems go for Pletcher and Mike Smith whom I'm not crazy about here at the Spa. At the very least, I think that Palace Malice will make the exacta.
6 Moreno is a dangerous speed horse working extremely well here since the Jim Dandy, too. He hasn't ever raced this far, so that is a question mark. My numbers say he can do it. Because his workouts are so good, I expect him to improve. On the negative side, everyone knows he is a speed horse, so they don't want him to get an easy lead. Chance to win and chance to fade even though he is a fresher horse and an improving horse since the shades.
5 Will Take Charge did nothing wrong in the Jim Dandy, finishing second behind Palace Malice. Has the best closing time; his numbers are good all around. His works since the Jim Dandy have been good. However, he has danced a lot of dances so he could regress. Lukas likes to run his horses.
2 Orb is the wild card. Been resting since the Triple Crown and had a great work here on 8/19 so he is ready. Been working steadily elsewhere so stamina should not be an issue. However, looking at his past performances, I'm not sure he is as good as these. Yes, he won the Derby on a sealed, sloppy track. But his Beyer numbers in the Preakness and Belmont are only 92. Could have been tired or he is just not good enough on a dry track. Add to the fact that he is a deep closer on a track where you need to be within 5 lengths of the leader at the second call. So even if he is ready, he needs to stay close. Too many question marks for me.
Here is what I will bet: exacta box with 8 Palace Malice over 6 Moreno, 5 Will Take Charge, 2 Orb
I will likely bet another exacta box: 8 Palace Malice and 6 Moreno
No sheet for Travers Day, but I may do a late Pick 4 play.
Good luck!
Mr. X
6 Moreno is a dangerous speed horse working extremely well here since the Jim Dandy, too. He hasn't ever raced this far, so that is a question mark. My numbers say he can do it. Because his workouts are so good, I expect him to improve. On the negative side, everyone knows he is a speed horse, so they don't want him to get an easy lead. Chance to win and chance to fade even though he is a fresher horse and an improving horse since the shades.
5 Will Take Charge did nothing wrong in the Jim Dandy, finishing second behind Palace Malice. Has the best closing time; his numbers are good all around. His works since the Jim Dandy have been good. However, he has danced a lot of dances so he could regress. Lukas likes to run his horses.
2 Orb is the wild card. Been resting since the Triple Crown and had a great work here on 8/19 so he is ready. Been working steadily elsewhere so stamina should not be an issue. However, looking at his past performances, I'm not sure he is as good as these. Yes, he won the Derby on a sealed, sloppy track. But his Beyer numbers in the Preakness and Belmont are only 92. Could have been tired or he is just not good enough on a dry track. Add to the fact that he is a deep closer on a track where you need to be within 5 lengths of the leader at the second call. So even if he is ready, he needs to stay close. Too many question marks for me.
Here is what I will bet: exacta box with 8 Palace Malice over 6 Moreno, 5 Will Take Charge, 2 Orb
I will likely bet another exacta box: 8 Palace Malice and 6 Moreno
No sheet for Travers Day, but I may do a late Pick 4 play.
Good luck!
Mr. X
Sunday, August 18, 2013
Sunday's Doghouse Confidential Posted, August 18
Just posted today's Doghouse. Not a great card. Too many turf races.
Had everything on the Doghouse on Friday. You need to bet them right as well. Hit the early Pick 4, won $3. Lost $200 for the day. Hit the late Pick 4 yesterday, but still down just a little for the meet.
Just go the red Doghouse Confidential button at the Meet Mr. X page and click on it. Or go to the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.
Good luck!
Had everything on the Doghouse on Friday. You need to bet them right as well. Hit the early Pick 4, won $3. Lost $200 for the day. Hit the late Pick 4 yesterday, but still down just a little for the meet.
Just go the red Doghouse Confidential button at the Meet Mr. X page and click on it. Or go to the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.
Good luck!
Friday, August 16, 2013
Doghouse Posted for Friday, August 16
Looks like favorites, but will be betting the Pick 4's. Now even.
Go to the red Doghouse Confidential button on Meet Mr. X or the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr.X page.
Go to the red Doghouse Confidential button on Meet Mr. X or the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr.X page.
Good luck!
Mr. X
Thursday, August 15, 2013
Doghouse Will Be Posted for Friday, August 16
I will post another Doghouse sometime tomorrow morning for the Friday card. I will also have a Pick 4 ticket as part of the Doghouse.
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