Kentucky Derby 2013 Doghouse Confidential

Having trouble with the website so I posted my Derby analysis here:

DOGHOUSE CONFIDENTIAL by Mr. X

May 4, 2013

	PP		HORSE	JOCKEY	TRAINER	ODDS
	1		Black Onyx	Joe Bravo	Kelly Breen	50-1
	2		Oxbow	Gary Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	30-1
	3	B	Revolutionary	Calvin Borel	Todd Pletcher	10-1
	4		Golden Soul	Robby Albarado	Dallas Stewart	50-1
	5	A	Normandy Invasion	Javier Castellano	Chad Brown	12-1
	6	B	Mylute	Rosie Napravnik	Tom Amoss	15-1
	7		Giant Finish	Jose Espinoza	Tony Dutrow	50-1
	8	C	Goldencents	Kevin Krigger	Doug O'Neill	5-1
	9	C	Overanalyze	Rafael Bejarano	Todd Pletcher	15-1
	10	C	Palace Malice	Mike Smith	Todd Pletcher	20-1
	11		Lines of Battle	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien	30-1
	12	C	Itsmyluckyday	Elvis Trujillo	Eddie Plesa Jr.	15-1
	13		Falling Sky	Luis Saez	John Terranova	50-1
	14	A	Verrazano	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	4-1
	15		Charming Kitten	Edgar Prado	Todd Pletcher	20-1
	16	A	Orb	Joel Rosario	Shug McGaughey	7-2
	17		Will Take Charge	Jon Court	D. Wayne Lukas	20-1
	18		Frac Daddy	Victor Lebron	Kenny McPeek	50-1
	19		Java's War	Julien Leparoux	Kenny McPeek	15-1
	20	C	Vyjack	Garrett Gomez	Rudy Rodriguez	15-1

Analysis

If you have been following my system of evaluating horses that can run 10 furlongs, you can follow the above colors: green are horses that appear to be able to go the distance, yellow are horses that have made the grade on synthetics or have one time or another appeared to be able to make it, and red are horses that I don’t think can go beyond 9 furlongs or are eliminated because they don’t look competitive.

The analysis is different once again this year because all of these horses have had to compete to get in on the points system, thereby showing their stripes this year. Furthermore, there are no cheap speed sprinters that typically upset the early pace. So the horses should have a legitimate pace and it should be theoretically easier to separate contenders from non contenders given that they have run against each other already?

But the big problem again is the weather. I know (think?) now that there will be significant moisture in the track, and it looks like it could be heavier than just intermittent showers.

My system works best on a dry track or a just moist track and doesn’t work at all on a sealed or extremely sloppy track. Having said that, I have not changed my selections, but I will bet less on the Derby given the weather conditions.

My numbers say that 5 Normandy Invasion will storm to the front and win. He is on the light side, but training very well for Chad Brown. Normandy Invasion was a fast closing second to Verranzo in the Wood Memorial. The horse has the best closing time of the bunch. Most importantly, however, is that Castellano chose Normandy Invasion over Revolutionary who is Pletcher’s horse and one of Pletcher’s main riders along with Johnny V.

14 Verrazano was cruising down in the Wood and has never been seriously threatened. He is Johnny V.’s choice for Pletcher although Johnny admitted that he chose Verrazano before Orb was available. Verrazano has good numbers but is still somewhat of an unknown. Could run away with the race at the end. My numbers say that the Wood Memorial was the second fastest race after the Santa Anita Derby which I question anyway. This race may be a repeat of the 2003 Derby when Funny Cide and Empire Maker ran one-two in the Wood, and two-one in the Derby.

16 Orb is a talented horse from Shug. He has come from behind to win at Gulfstream Park where speed is king. Johnny V. admitted that Orb was a very good horse and that he feared Orb more than any other horse. Johnny implied that he would have chosen Orb over Verrazano. Orb’s Gulfstream races were slower than the Wood, and his numbers are not as good as the top two. Will be the favorite.

All of the top three would appear to be comfortable in wet or dry conditions.

3 Revolutionary has done nothing wrong, but is inside with Calvin Borel. You need to decide whether Calvin can work out a trip inside in the mud. He has done it before. Remember Castellano chose Normandy over Revolutionary. Wouldn’t be a major surprise to win. 6 Mylute has a chance and meets the numbers but will be overbet with Rosie. Did give up to Revolutionary in the lane in last rather easily.

8 Goldencents will be the speed of speeds, likely 7 lengths in front to the mile or beyond but will fold. While he is the closest thing to the lone speed and dangerous, I just don’t see him going all the way. 20 Vyjack is marooned in the 20 hole and hasn’t been training well. Not a win contender. 9 Overanalyze could be a surprise at a price. Ran a 99 Beyer last year in the Remsen but hasn’t repeated that this year. 11 Line of Battle from Europe has never been on dirt, so difficult to land on him in any of the slots. However, a third or fourth would not be out of the question.

You can’t bet them all, and as I said, the weather will likely be bad so take it easy.

Here is my safe bet:

$5 Exacta box: 5-14-16 = $30

Here is what I will bet:

$60 Win 5 = $60

$20 Exacta box = 5-14-16 = $120

$10 Exacta 5 over 3-6-9 = $30

Total $210

Good luck!

Mr. X

Preliminary Derby Analysis Posted

As in previous years, I have categorized the horses into three categories based on their last three furlong times and their median energy distribution. You can access the sheet at the red Doghouse Confidential button  on the Meet Mr. X page.

Remember that this analysis is only preliminary and does not account for final times yet. We have to wait to see who is running and how they are doing on the Churchill strip. But at this point, I have identified my primary contenders.

Good luck! I'll be back with a final Derby analysis.(See the bobblehead that my daughter gave me for Christmas!)

Breeders Cup Late Pick 4 for Saturday

Had the $36 winner in the marathon, but still lost for the day. Almost had the exacta a few times as well. Beholder ran to form, but Kaui Katie just wasn't good enough.

I see more favorites winning today although that rarely happens at the Breeders Cup races. Best chances: Groupie Doll, Shanghai Bobby, Point of Entry, and Wise Dan. Hard to single anyone, however.

Here is my late $1 Pick 4:

9th: 1,12
10th: 6,7,11
11th: 2,3,6
12th: 2,4,5,10

Total: $72

Good luck!

Mr. X

Breeder's Cup Friday Spot Plays

Don't know if I will have time to study and post for Saturday, but I do like some of the races on Friday:

Race 4: Exacta box: 3 Merit Man and a longshot 6 Hazardous. Numbers say that they will run away from the field.

Race 7: 1 Beholder has a significant pace advantage. Will take off and need to stretch out to the 8.5f distance. 8 Kaui Katie needs to stretch out as well, but was unbelievable at the Spa and her next race. From connections of Rachel Alexandra. Will bet an exacta box.

$1 Pick 4:

6th: 3-5-6-10
7th: 1-8
8th: 4-9-10
9th: 5-6-8

Total: $72

Good luck! At least we don't have to worry about the weather.

Mr. X

Saratoga Epilogue

Given personal commitments, I didn't think that I would get to the track for the final week. But alas, my company left early, so I was able to go both on Sunday and Monday. Lost $25 on Sunday.

But on Monday, I almost didn't go. Yet I had to have one more shot at the greatest race track in the world.

Turns out I hit a $42 quinella ten times, a triple and 10 cent superfecta in another later race, a $20 Grand Slam and the Late Pick 4 for $1. Won over $900 which put a major dent in my losses.

On another day, I had a $10 double which would have paid $100 per ticket or $500. Unfortunately, I had the only race where the winner was disqualified at the meet.

Still lost for the meet, but not much. Remember, you don't have to bet or win to have a great time at the Spa!

Sorry for the lack of sheets this year. It really has been a busy six weeks.

Mr. X

Late Pick Four, Saturday, August 25

Have been hitting the Pick 4 regularly. I'm putting in the following Pick 4 ending with the Travers:

9th: 2,4
10th: 2,3,5,7,8
11th: 3
12th: 5,6,10

$1 Pick 4: $30

Travers, Saturday, August 25

I think that 10 Nonios looks to be in a good spot with Johnny V. He'll have to work out a trip from the 10 hole, and in truth, he may not want the 10f. On the other hand, he is improving and he has the best final time from the 9f Haskell behind Paynter. Remember that the Haskell was his first race on dirt, so maybe he has more room for improvement.

The horses to beat are 6 Alpha and 5 Street Life. Alpha had everything his own way in the Jim Dandy on a wet track. I don't see him getting the lead today, but he will stalk. Chad Brown has tried everything to get Street Life into the race earlier. He wants to win here at the Spa. Maybe his win in the Curlin Stakes here hints at an improving horse who will want the 10f distance.

Win: 10
Exacta box: 5-6-10
Exacta box: 10/5-6

Good luck!