Saratoga Spot Plays - Wednesday, July 25

Well, it's that time of year again at the beautiful Spa. Getting off to a fast start losing two days in a row although had a couple of good hits.

Here are a couple of spot plays:

1st: Usually I don't bet a deep closer in a 6f race because the model says that the winner needs to be around 3 lengths or so from the lead. However, 7 Glynisthemenace (5-1, Jacobson claim) is in with some very questionable cheap speed so I'll bet a win ticket on him. Then I'll put him in an exacta box with the other closer 8 World Power (6-1, Dominguez) and finally 2 Gabrilicious (8-1). Should be good payoffs.

2nd: 5 Hillswick (2-1, Jacobson claim back)  has the best speed but is zero for seven at the distance. Still he holds a significant pace advantage over these. Has to hold on. The main danger is 1 Maui Mark (5-2) who hasn't raced on dirt since Santa Anita in March. Will bet a larger Jacobson double: 7-5 and a lesser 7-1 saver.

Good luck and look to the blog for spot plays and when the Doghouse Confidential is posted.

Mr. X

No Belmont Analysis Posted

Well, everybody knows the news by now. I really wasn't too excited about betting the race before, but now I think we have a chance to cash.

Many question marks, particularly who can get the 12 furlongs, now the weather. I think it is a four horse race unless it rains incessantly and the track is sealed.

Union Rags made my numbers for the Derby, won here last year, and deserves another chance with Johnny V. Has to stay out of trouble and keep cool as he heats up at race time. Street Life has a pace advantage and is on the rail. Look for him to be closer to the pace. Likes Belmont. Dullahan has been working well, but hasn't really won on dirt and closed passing tired horses in the Derby. Paynter could surprise but doesn't have the look of a horse that wants to go that far. If on the lead uncontested, he could keep going.

Barring some monsoon, I will bet the exacta: Union Rags and Street Life, then include the other two. May bet all four in a triple box and a superfecta box. Union Rags looks to me to be the winner.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Preakness 2012 Posted

An interesting and good betting race.

I have a major question mark, but I can't ignore my best number horse in the Derby, 8 Daddy Knows Best. 

Read all about it at Meet Mr. X. Just click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck. It is time we collected.

Mr. X

Kentucky Derby 2012 Posted

Here we go again. We don't know the weather with any certainty at all, but that doesn't stop me from doing my analyses. If it rains really hard, forget about my picks.

10 Daddy Knows Best looks to be in the right spot with a clean trip from the outside, running down the speed late. He has been working great at Churchill.

See my analyses at Meet Mr. X. Just click on the Doghouse Confidential red button. I have also included two charts from my appearance on OTB-TV "Trackfacts."

Good luck. Let's cash again.

Mr. X

Mr. X's Derby Contenders on "Trackfacts Live"

Mr. X will talk by phone about his system of separating Derby Contenders on "Trackfacts Live" with Tom Amello and Nick Kling, Sunday morning (9:30 am) on the OTB channel in the Capital District."

Every two weeks or so, I will update the contenders on the show, up until the Derby.

Let's find a winner this year!

Mr. X

Hit Sunday's Early Pick 4, No Post on Monday

Hit the early Pick 4 for half of $686 along with both quinellas, an exacta, and two triples before the monsoon that cancelled the last race.

No post on Monday. Just too tired and track will be a mess, presuming everything is off the turf.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Sunday, September 4 Doghouse Posted

Just posted today's Doghouse. Have both the early and late Pick 4's selected.

Go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Still down for the meet, but I haven't figured out how much. But having fun.

Handicapped for fast and firm today. Hope the rain holds off for tomorrow, but it doesn't look good.

Good luck!

Mr. X