I have posted the Doghouse at Meet Mr. X or on the Racing Calendar. Doesn't look like a good betting race. I have handicapped the race for a good to fast track.
In the Derby, I had no chance after seeing the condition of the track. On the other hand, there is no way I would have picked Mine That Bird under any conditions. Great ride and a good little horse. Let's see what he does tomorrow on a fast track. I'm betting that he will run very well again.
Should be a good race tomorrow with Rachel Alexandra facing the boys.
Good luck!
Mr. X
Friday, May 15, 2009
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Direct Link to Derby Doghouse
Here is a direct link for those of you having trouble accessing the Doghouse:
Kentucky Derby 2009 Doghouse Confidential
Good luck!
Mr. X
Kentucky Derby 2009 Doghouse Confidential
Good luck!
Mr. X
Derby Doghouse Updated 11 am, Saturday
I have updated the Doghouse because of the scratch of I Want Revenge, our choice in the Derby.
I have moved Dunkirk to the most likely to win. The betting strategy has changed as well.
According to the track superintendent, we can expect a good to fast track by the Derby.
Good luck to all!
Mr. X
I have moved Dunkirk to the most likely to win. The betting strategy has changed as well.
According to the track superintendent, we can expect a good to fast track by the Derby.
Good luck to all!
Mr. X
Friday, May 1, 2009
Kentucky Derby 2009 Doghouse Posted
You can access the Doghouse at Meet Mr. X and click on the Doghouse Confidential button, or you can go to the calendar and look under the May 2 date.
Weather is a big problem, so check it out before you bet.
Have a great day and hopefully a prosperous one as well.
I Want Revenge is the pick.
Mr. X
Weather is a big problem, so check it out before you bet.
Have a great day and hopefully a prosperous one as well.
I Want Revenge is the pick.
Mr. X
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Doghouse to be Posted for the Kentucky Derby
Just to let you know that I am alive and well. I will be posting a Doghouse late Friday or early Saturday for the Derby.
I did do my energy distribution analysis and last three furlong times for all of the horses. For the first time ever, all of the horses met the criteria. Usually, more than half are eliminated, and there are several questionable.
What this means is that the trainers are reading the Doghouse and concluded that the only way to win is to have a closing punch, so they are training the horses this way. It is difficult at present to see what the pace will be and who will lead the crowd around the first turn.
I await the post draw today to see how the horses will stack up, will check final workouts, and the weather. Check back.
Mr. X
I did do my energy distribution analysis and last three furlong times for all of the horses. For the first time ever, all of the horses met the criteria. Usually, more than half are eliminated, and there are several questionable.
What this means is that the trainers are reading the Doghouse and concluded that the only way to win is to have a closing punch, so they are training the horses this way. It is difficult at present to see what the pace will be and who will lead the crowd around the first turn.
I await the post draw today to see how the horses will stack up, will check final workouts, and the weather. Check back.
Mr. X
Friday, February 27, 2009
Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream - February 28, 2009
9th
Hardly a prep race for the Derby. Shortened from 9f to a mile. Milers generally don't run in the Derby so we have a number of speed horses who will stretch their speed from 6f to a mile, but won't have anything to do with the Derby.
3 Notonthesamepage looks like the speed of speeds from the inside. I think he will wire the field. Has a good projected closing time to go with his early speed. Best finish time. Major B in last at 114. One to beat.
12 This Ones for Phil from the outside post also has a good projected closing time and second best final time. Freaked at 116 B in last. Dutrow will be looking to cash.
10 Taqarub ships from Aqueduct for McLaughlin/Garcia (choice), unbeaten, Garcia says doesn't need lead.
8 Break Water Edison gets shades, needs to bounce back to last year's form. Loses Garcia, but has a chance to be in the money.
A number of other horses could easily win this race and would be no surprise. I don't understand why Beethoven is shortening in this race. Capt. Candyman looks slower than these, but really can't judge all of the speeds. Quality Road could bounce back. Theregoesjojo beat Quality Road and could be improving as well.
In any event, it looks like the speed will win likely from one of the stretch out horses.
Here is my bet:
$20 Win 3
$5 Exbx: 3-12
$2 Exbx: 3 /8-10
$1 Tri: 3-12/3-8-10-12/3-8-10-12
Total $50
Good luck!
Mr. X
Hardly a prep race for the Derby. Shortened from 9f to a mile. Milers generally don't run in the Derby so we have a number of speed horses who will stretch their speed from 6f to a mile, but won't have anything to do with the Derby.
3 Notonthesamepage looks like the speed of speeds from the inside. I think he will wire the field. Has a good projected closing time to go with his early speed. Best finish time. Major B in last at 114. One to beat.
12 This Ones for Phil from the outside post also has a good projected closing time and second best final time. Freaked at 116 B in last. Dutrow will be looking to cash.
10 Taqarub ships from Aqueduct for McLaughlin/Garcia (choice), unbeaten, Garcia says doesn't need lead.
8 Break Water Edison gets shades, needs to bounce back to last year's form. Loses Garcia, but has a chance to be in the money.
A number of other horses could easily win this race and would be no surprise. I don't understand why Beethoven is shortening in this race. Capt. Candyman looks slower than these, but really can't judge all of the speeds. Quality Road could bounce back. Theregoesjojo beat Quality Road and could be improving as well.
In any event, it looks like the speed will win likely from one of the stretch out horses.
Here is my bet:
$20 Win 3
$5 Exbx: 3-12
$2 Exbx: 3 /8-10
$1 Tri: 3-12/3-8-10-12/3-8-10-12
Total $50
Good luck!
Mr. X
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Sam Davis at Tampa - Saturday, February 14, 2009
10th
Another good betting race for three year olds on the Derby Trail. The Tampa track is sandy and tricky, so it is expected that shippers may have a problem on this surface.
Having said that, I like 6 Cliffy's Future, a shipper from Aqueduct, listed at 10-1 in the morning line. Looks to have the best closing time, good post, and good energy distribution. He has to stay closer to the pace, but looks best to me.
7 Free Country is trained by Ken McPeek along with jock Kent D., so you know they are trying. Stepping back from 9f and had three works. Second choice but no surprise.
5 Atomic Rain is another shipper from Gulfstream beaten by Free Country in last. Kelly Breen trained, with John Vel up. Gets shades and three works.
9 Musket Man won here at 7 f in small stake, stretching, good works, + Lezcano.
It would really be no surprise if any of these horses won. Very good betting race.
The bet:
$20 Win: 6
$5 Exbx: 6 / 5-7-9
Total bet: $50
Good luck!
Mr. X
Another good betting race for three year olds on the Derby Trail. The Tampa track is sandy and tricky, so it is expected that shippers may have a problem on this surface.
Having said that, I like 6 Cliffy's Future, a shipper from Aqueduct, listed at 10-1 in the morning line. Looks to have the best closing time, good post, and good energy distribution. He has to stay closer to the pace, but looks best to me.
7 Free Country is trained by Ken McPeek along with jock Kent D., so you know they are trying. Stepping back from 9f and had three works. Second choice but no surprise.
5 Atomic Rain is another shipper from Gulfstream beaten by Free Country in last. Kelly Breen trained, with John Vel up. Gets shades and three works.
9 Musket Man won here at 7 f in small stake, stretching, good works, + Lezcano.
It would really be no surprise if any of these horses won. Very good betting race.
The bet:
$20 Win: 6
$5 Exbx: 6 / 5-7-9
Total bet: $50
Good luck!
Mr. X
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