Well, we bet all the closers in the Derby expecting a contested pace. Several horses who would have chased just didn't get out. So the top three went around essentially unchanged. American Pharoah did look much the best. Had some really good luck breaking from the 16 post which I did not think could happen. Our horse, Frosted, closed best of all but finished fourth. So it was the front runner's day.
The Preakness looks like a repeat with 8 Firing Line wanting the lead. It could be rainy and muddy so things may change. 1 American Pharoah has the rail and will get close to or will have the lead. I'm betting that these two race around together, but that Firing Line finally gives up in the stretch.
My upset choice for the exacta is 6 Bodhisvatta. Looks like an improving horse. Mud is okay, and he is the only horse who has won here at Pimlico. My numbers say that he is the third best after the top two. But I'm hoping that Firing Line burns out and Bodhisvatta closes to make the exacta.
Haven't figured out the exacta bet yet, but the major bet will be American Pharoah over Bodhisvatta.