Just posted a Doghouse for today. Many firsters and guessing games, so take it easy. Didn't cash big on the Travers, but that is the way it goes.
Go to the red Doghouse Confidential button on the Meet Mr. X page or the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.
Good luck! Just fantastic weather.
Mr. X
Sunday, August 25, 2013
Saturday, August 24, 2013
Travers Epilogue
If anyone was smart enough to box all four of the horses selected for $2, you would have won:
exacta: $313
triple: $1,950
superfecta: $5,098
Of course, I didn't. Only bet it the way I said I would with Palace Malice making the exacta. Unfortunately, the horse stumbled coming out of the gate and went wide throughout.
I did bet Moreno across the board at 31-1, so I made about $50 for the race. Big deal!
You have to bet it right! Next time.
Mr. X
Travers Pick 4 Posted
Sorry for the late post. I have posted the Pick 4 for races 9-12 at the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.
Good luck!
Good luck!
Friday, August 23, 2013
The Travers Analysis - Saturday, August 24, 2013
It looks to me like 8 Palace Malice is the horse to beat. The Jim Dandy is the key race so I think that the horses coming out of that race are best. Palace Malice looks to be able to go the 10f based on my numbers. Palace Malice is working extremely well since the Jim Dandy, so it looks like all systems go for Pletcher and Mike Smith whom I'm not crazy about here at the Spa. At the very least, I think that Palace Malice will make the exacta.
6 Moreno is a dangerous speed horse working extremely well here since the Jim Dandy, too. He hasn't ever raced this far, so that is a question mark. My numbers say he can do it. Because his workouts are so good, I expect him to improve. On the negative side, everyone knows he is a speed horse, so they don't want him to get an easy lead. Chance to win and chance to fade even though he is a fresher horse and an improving horse since the shades.
5 Will Take Charge did nothing wrong in the Jim Dandy, finishing second behind Palace Malice. Has the best closing time; his numbers are good all around. His works since the Jim Dandy have been good. However, he has danced a lot of dances so he could regress. Lukas likes to run his horses.
2 Orb is the wild card. Been resting since the Triple Crown and had a great work here on 8/19 so he is ready. Been working steadily elsewhere so stamina should not be an issue. However, looking at his past performances, I'm not sure he is as good as these. Yes, he won the Derby on a sealed, sloppy track. But his Beyer numbers in the Preakness and Belmont are only 92. Could have been tired or he is just not good enough on a dry track. Add to the fact that he is a deep closer on a track where you need to be within 5 lengths of the leader at the second call. So even if he is ready, he needs to stay close. Too many question marks for me.
Here is what I will bet: exacta box with 8 Palace Malice over 6 Moreno, 5 Will Take Charge, 2 Orb
I will likely bet another exacta box: 8 Palace Malice and 6 Moreno
No sheet for Travers Day, but I may do a late Pick 4 play.
Good luck!
Mr. X
6 Moreno is a dangerous speed horse working extremely well here since the Jim Dandy, too. He hasn't ever raced this far, so that is a question mark. My numbers say he can do it. Because his workouts are so good, I expect him to improve. On the negative side, everyone knows he is a speed horse, so they don't want him to get an easy lead. Chance to win and chance to fade even though he is a fresher horse and an improving horse since the shades.
5 Will Take Charge did nothing wrong in the Jim Dandy, finishing second behind Palace Malice. Has the best closing time; his numbers are good all around. His works since the Jim Dandy have been good. However, he has danced a lot of dances so he could regress. Lukas likes to run his horses.
2 Orb is the wild card. Been resting since the Triple Crown and had a great work here on 8/19 so he is ready. Been working steadily elsewhere so stamina should not be an issue. However, looking at his past performances, I'm not sure he is as good as these. Yes, he won the Derby on a sealed, sloppy track. But his Beyer numbers in the Preakness and Belmont are only 92. Could have been tired or he is just not good enough on a dry track. Add to the fact that he is a deep closer on a track where you need to be within 5 lengths of the leader at the second call. So even if he is ready, he needs to stay close. Too many question marks for me.
Here is what I will bet: exacta box with 8 Palace Malice over 6 Moreno, 5 Will Take Charge, 2 Orb
I will likely bet another exacta box: 8 Palace Malice and 6 Moreno
No sheet for Travers Day, but I may do a late Pick 4 play.
Good luck!
Mr. X
Sunday, August 18, 2013
Sunday's Doghouse Confidential Posted, August 18
Just posted today's Doghouse. Not a great card. Too many turf races.
Had everything on the Doghouse on Friday. You need to bet them right as well. Hit the early Pick 4, won $3. Lost $200 for the day. Hit the late Pick 4 yesterday, but still down just a little for the meet.
Just go the red Doghouse Confidential button at the Meet Mr. X page and click on it. Or go to the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.
Good luck!
Had everything on the Doghouse on Friday. You need to bet them right as well. Hit the early Pick 4, won $3. Lost $200 for the day. Hit the late Pick 4 yesterday, but still down just a little for the meet.
Just go the red Doghouse Confidential button at the Meet Mr. X page and click on it. Or go to the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page.
Good luck!
Friday, August 16, 2013
Doghouse Posted for Friday, August 16
Looks like favorites, but will be betting the Pick 4's. Now even.
Go to the red Doghouse Confidential button on Meet Mr. X or the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr.X page.
Go to the red Doghouse Confidential button on Meet Mr. X or the My Racing Calendar link at the bottom of the Meet Mr.X page.
Good luck!
Mr. X
Thursday, August 15, 2013
Doghouse Will Be Posted for Friday, August 16
I will post another Doghouse sometime tomorrow morning for the Friday card. I will also have a Pick 4 ticket as part of the Doghouse.
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Track Conditions and Selections for Wednesday
Weather apparently was bad in Saratoga.
Races 2,7, and 10 are off the turf, so ignore my selections.
Track conditions at 8 am are muddy and yielding. I handicapped for much better conditions (fast and good/firm) so take that into account.
Mr. X
Races 2,7, and 10 are off the turf, so ignore my selections.
Track conditions at 8 am are muddy and yielding. I handicapped for much better conditions (fast and good/firm) so take that into account.
Mr. X
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
Doghouse Confidential Posted for Wednesday, August 14
Just posted a Doghouse for tomorrow. First few races are impossible, and the others are really contentious so take it easy.
As always, go to the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X and click on it. You will also see the Racing Calendar at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page. There a copy will be available as well on the specific date.
Handicapped for fast and good to firm on the turf.
Good luck!
Mr. X
As always, go to the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X and click on it. You will also see the Racing Calendar at the bottom of the Meet Mr. X page. There a copy will be available as well on the specific date.
Handicapped for fast and good to firm on the turf.
Good luck!
Mr. X
Doghouse to be Posted for Wednesday, August 14
Look for another Doghouse likely late morning tomorrow.
Racing Calendar Updated for August 2013
At Meet Mr. X at the bottom of the page, I have updated the Racing Calendar which will give you the links to the dates on which a Doghouse Confidential was issued.
Sunday, August 11, 2013
Doghouse Confidential Posted for Sunday, August 11, 2013
For those of you paying attention, yesterday's Doghouse yielded 7 A winners out of 8 races including a $35 horse that triggered two Pick 3's, the Grand Slam, and the late Pick 4. Made $1700, now plus for the meet.
Today's card is not great. Later races are better. Just go to the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.
Good luck!
Today's card is not great. Later races are better. Just go to the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.
Good luck!
Saturday, August 10, 2013
Doghouse Posted for Saturday, August 10, 2013
Finally got the site working. You can now get a copy at the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.
Good luck!
Good luck!
Doghouse Confidential for Saturday, August 10, 2013
Had trouble posting the first Doghouse of the season, so here it is below:
DOGHOUSE CONFIDENTIAL
SARATOGA
STRATEGIES by Mr. X
at
www.sovas.net
|
||||
Mr.
& Mrs. X
Saturday, August 10, 2013
|
||||
|
R
|
#
|
TkMkr
|
Name
|
Comments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
3
|
A
|
Ithastobegeorge
|
Cast; good finish last here; trainer
doing well here; one to beat
|
|
|
7
|
A
|
Moonlight Song
|
High speed; excellent work 7/30;
ready; but 6 yr old; not best dist?
|
|
|
2
|
B
|
Tug of War
|
Very sharp works; layoff, new
trainer; likes Spa
|
|
|
6
|
B
|
Tenango
|
Excuse last ; may bounce back to 90
B's; not best dist?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2
|
5
|
A
|
Expression
|
Looks to be right spot; others?;
owner/trainer; dist specialist
|
|
|
3
|
B
|
Greed and Fear
|
Maker/Ramsey claim in June; moves up;
beaten by 5
|
|
|
1
|
B
|
AnnsSmartDancr
|
Levine/JVel; doesn't win; gets rail
which is only 1/30
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3
|
2
|
A
|
The Sixties
|
+Cast layoff; Maker/Ramsey; stepping
up; okay works; no prize
|
|
|
3
|
A
|
Where's Danny
|
Won here in off turfer but beat 12;
Kenneally/Rosario; bumped last, still won
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
7
|
A
|
Soul House
|
Looks best; good race here;
Weaver/Cast; big favorite
|
|
|
5
|
A
|
AmbssadrBridge
|
+Rosario; good work; main danger;
Gyarmati?
|
|
|
8
|
B
|
Even Got Quiet
|
No name trainer/jock; good race here;
will like 7f; needs better start
|
|
|
9
|
C
|
Charlie's Punch
|
Ness; Saez choice? Looks to run along
|
|
|
10
|
C
|
Fiona's Hero
|
Rudy layoff after claim; good work
with Rudy up; needs to improve
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
7
|
A
|
Leadem Ken
|
Stepping up for Maker/Ramsey; layoff;
won at dist; +Cast
|
|
|
10
|
A
|
Dangerous Lad
|
IOrtiz choice; stretching, excellent
work; excuses at GP
|
|
|
5
|
A
|
Abraham
|
Pletcher/JVel; first turf; excellent
work; +shades
|
|
|
3
|
B
|
Ghost Hunter
|
Racing w better; first turf; layoff
but trainer change to Mott/Prado
|
|
|
|
|
|
Watch AE's
|
|
|
|
|
|
$1 Pick 4: 5-7-10/2-8-9/1/3-4-5-8=
$36
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
8
|
A
|
Summer of Fun
|
Very tough race, but looks best;
ready off layoff; Weaver hot; excellent works
|
|
|
9
|
A
|
Barbie Wire
|
Chad Brown hot; stretching, excellent
work; ready; stepping up
|
|
|
2
|
A
|
Praia
|
McPeek; looks to want longer; class;
chance inside w Garcia; slower?
|
|
|
|
B
|
1,6,7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
1
|
A
|
Wise Dan
|
Still the man; toting weight but beat
most of these; soft okay
|
|
|
7
|
B
|
Lea
|
Looks to close, 2nd behind 1, soft
okay; +Rosario; improving
|
|
|
6
|
B
|
King Kreesa
|
Consistent E, +100 B's, but will have
company; dist specialist
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exbx: 1/7-6 Ex: 1-7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
8
|
A
|
Adirondack Dncr
|
One to beat; Rice/CVel; excellent
work; won here
|
|
|
4
|
A
|
North Star Boy
|
+Cast; excellent work; trainer okay;
one to beat
|
|
|
3
|
B
|
Namron
|
Klesaris/Prado; Del shipper; could
surprise on inner; closer
|
|
|
5
|
B
|
Short Shrift
|
Stepping up; horse for course, dist
specialist; but E on inner; 2 will challenge
|
|
|
6
|
C
|
Unbridled Logic
|
+Rosario/Levine; layoff; lesser B's
|
|
|
1
|
C
|
Situational Ethic
|
Rail, consistent B's; but 0/4 Spa,
0/7 distance
|
|
|
2
|
C
|
Bluegrass Spring
|
Claimed last; Rice 2nd entry;
stretching; will want lead
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Handicapped
for fast, good. Was very bad early, hardly cashed but now heating up. Have been
winning or breaking even. Still a way to go for even. Fifth race off the turf.
Good luck!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)