Terrible weather for a great card.
I like 7 Kensei to win. Looks to be improving, outside, and won here in a very good effort. My numbers say that he can get 10 furlongs, although everyone else can as well.
The horse to beat is 4 Quality Road, and Pletcher's route to this race is questionable at best. But who am I to question Pletcher? Both will like the mud.
So I'll place a win bet on 7 Kensei, and an exacta box (4-7) on Kensei/Quality Road.