Belmont Stakes Unexciting

Not close in the Preakness. Moving on.

Looks to me that 10 Tacitus and 9 War of Will have a great class edge over the rest of the field. Tacitus has been resting since the Derby, and our numbers showed that he can run forever at a constant pace. War of Will has done nothing wrong although our numbers showed that he couldn't get the 10f of the Derby. If you recall, he had every chance to win after the debacle, but faded in the last eighth of a mile. Casse says the horse has been doing great and actually gained weight since the Preakness win. I'm still skeptical that the horse can get the distance, and coupled with the tough campaign, I'm leaving him out. Do so at your own peril.

My second choice is the lightly raced 8 Intrepid Heart. Trained by Pletcher who does very well in the Belmont. Stumbled in the Peter Pan as the favorite, and he is a Tapit as is Tacitus. Johnny V. rides with blinkers on. Look for near or at the lead. Third choice is 7 Sir Winston who came from way back to finish almost five lengths in front of Intrepid Heart in the Peter Pan. The other horse trained by Casse and ridden by Rosario. Not the winning style for the Belmont.

Safe bet: $2 Exacta box: 10 with 7-8-9 = $12

Here is my bet:

$20 Exacta box: 10 with 7-8 = $80

Good luck!

Correction

Sorry for the mistake, but Bodexpress is the 9 horse. Always check my numbers.

Preakness Stakes Selections

Still crying about our terrible Derby loss. Had the winner, bet against the Baffert horses, and all of the top five "original" winners met our numbers. Very tough way to lose when right about everything.

Here is my analysis of the Preakness. Very even group of horses where anyone can win except for a couple. Against Improbable again as the horse had no punch in the Derby and Baffert has been less than confident in his chances here.

I like the 7 Alwaysmining. A win machine stepping up. I expect him to be about 5 lengths back into the first turn then gradually move up and around the group. Should be a good price. 11 Laughing Fox is the Asmussen runner who has a good chance as well. Looks a little lesser, but may be improving. 2 Bourbon War missed the Derby and has been working well. A deep closer, but is rested. Chance on best. 8 Bodexpress hated the slop at Churchill but was second behind Maximum Security in the Florida Derby. Still a maiden.

Here is the safe bet: $2 exacta box: 2-7-8-11 = $24

Here is my bet: $50 win 7 = $50
$5 exacta box: 2-7-8-11 =  $60
$10 exacta: 7 over the 2-8-11 = $30
Total: $140

Good luck!
Mr. X

Kentucky Derby 2019 Doghouse Confidential Posted

It's going to be a mess tomorrow. I handicapped for mud, so don't worry.

I'm taking a shot with 7 Maximum Security, a Cinderella horse. Betting against all of the Baffert horses.

Read the complete analysis and betting strategies at Meet Mr. X. Just press the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Mr. X

2019 Kentucky Derby Contenders Characterized

As I try to do every year, I have posted the win only contenders at Meet Mr. X. Just click the red Doghouse Confidential button.

This analysis is only designed to separate the horses that can win at 10f , the Derby distance. It does not consider any other handicapping including final time.

I will post a full analysis either on Friday night or Saturday morning. Looks like a very wet track again. Always seems to rain and make it difficult. Good luck!

First Travers for Chad Brown

Looks like Chad Brown has the aces for the Travers. 3 Gronkowski and 9 Good Magic appear to be the ones to beat. Many other pretenders and possibles, but I think one of these and likely the Brown exacta will prevail.

Both horses are doing very well here. I think Chad is really surprised at how good Gronkowski is. He knows what he has in Good Magic. If you recall in the Derby analysis, Good Magic only marginally qualified for the 10f, and I have never been convinced that he wants to go beyond 9f. Gronkowski, on the other hand, looks like he can run all day given his excellent race in the Belmont. Gronkowski is my choice.

Here are my bets: $30 win 3; $10 exacta box 3-9, and maybe $2 exacta 3-9/ 2-4-11. Good luck!

The Alabama No Walkover

Yes, I am still alive and just barely positive for the meet which is good, because I'm usually way down going into the second half of the meet.

In the Alabama, there are no standouts that show that they can go the 10f including the overwhelming favorite, 3 Midnight Bisou. But she might be that much better than these to carry her speed for the distance. My numbers (incomplete without track variants) suggest that the other Asmussen horse, 4 She's a Julie, may be more suited to the 10f although she has only raced 8.5f, not the usual 9f that we require. The good news is that my numbers say that the second favorite, 8 Talk Veuve to Me, is a complete throwout not being able to make the distance. Other horses that have a chance for second are 7 Coach Rocks who will be wildly overbet because of local connections and the sleeper in Dallas Stewart's lightly raced 5 Auspicious Babe at 30-1.

Here's my bet - Exacta box: 3-4 and exacta: 3-4 over 5-7.

Good luck!