First Travers for Chad Brown

Looks like Chad Brown has the aces for the Travers. 3 Gronkowski and 9 Good Magic appear to be the ones to beat. Many other pretenders and possibles, but I think one of these and likely the Brown exacta will prevail.

Both horses are doing very well here. I think Chad is really surprised at how good Gronkowski is. He knows what he has in Good Magic. If you recall in the Derby analysis, Good Magic only marginally qualified for the 10f, and I have never been convinced that he wants to go beyond 9f. Gronkowski, on the other hand, looks like he can run all day given his excellent race in the Belmont. Gronkowski is my choice.

Here are my bets: $30 win 3; $10 exacta box 3-9, and maybe $2 exacta 3-9/ 2-4-11. Good luck!

The Alabama No Walkover

Yes, I am still alive and just barely positive for the meet which is good, because I'm usually way down going into the second half of the meet.

In the Alabama, there are no standouts that show that they can go the 10f including the overwhelming favorite, 3 Midnight Bisou. But she might be that much better than these to carry her speed for the distance. My numbers (incomplete without track variants) suggest that the other Asmussen horse, 4 She's a Julie, may be more suited to the 10f although she has only raced 8.5f, not the usual 9f that we require. The good news is that my numbers say that the second favorite, 8 Talk Veuve to Me, is a complete throwout not being able to make the distance. Other horses that have a chance for second are 7 Coach Rocks who will be wildly overbet because of local connections and the sleeper in Dallas Stewart's lightly raced 5 Auspicious Babe at 30-1.

Here's my bet - Exacta box: 3-4 and exacta: 3-4 over 5-7.

Good luck!