Friday, August 23, 2019

Doghouse Confidential Posted for Travers Late Pick 5

Just posted the Doghouse for races 7-11. Likely to be short price for the Pick 5 given some of the overwhelming favorites.

As always, click on the red Doghouse Confidential button on the Meet Mr. X.

Good luck!

Travers 2019

The Travers has a full field this year. Not sure exactly why, but as usual, horses are coming from everywhere.

The horse to beat and the only horse I really like is 6 Tacitus. He is a hard luck horse that should have no excuses. Maybe the horse makes his own trouble. I don't like a change as in blinkers for a major race. However, I think he is long overdue.The winner.

7 Mucho Gusto has a major pace advantage in this field, so he will take off and want the lead. My numbers say he is just short of making the 10f, but if not challenged, he could get brave. 12 Tax will have to go from the outside. Tax did not make my numbers for the Kentucky Derby, but he does now as he has matured. I think Tax will have to go to the lead and will fight with 6 and others eventually fading. 2 Code of Honor has a great post, but I think he is just too slow. 1 Owendale is a mystery horse to me, coming off a big win and a layoff and working lights out at Churchill Downs. 10 Scars Are Cool is coming off a maiden win, but meets my numbers and could hit the exacta. Many of the other potential contenders came out of muddy, sealed track races, so it is impossible to predict how good or bad they are.

Safe bet: $2 exacta key box: 6/1-2-7-10

Here is my bet:

$50 win 6 at 2-1 or more (which I doubt).

$20 exacta: 6-7    $10 exacta: 6 over 1-2-10   $5 exacta: 1-2-7-10/6

Good luck!


Friday, August 16, 2019

Doghouse Confidential Posted for Friday, August 16

Here is another Doghouse. Not a bad card for a Friday.

As always, go to the Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Still losing, but zigging and zagging, very close to big scores in the Pick 4 and 5

Good luck!

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Doghouse Confidential Posted for Sunday, August 11

Posted a Doghouse for today. Go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Hit the Grand Slam and late Pick 5 yesterday. Still down, but catching up. Avoid the rail on the dirt races.

Good luck!

Saturday, August 3, 2019

Doghouse (August 2) Had Seven Winners in Nine Races

For those of you paying attention, we had an unbelievable day with seven winners in the A category, the last five races in a row with our first choice winning. Short prices, but hit the Pick 3, late Pick 4, late Pick 5 and the Grand Slam multiple times. Made $500.

Friday, August 2, 2019

Doghouse Confidential Posted for Friday, August 2

Posted a new Doghouse for today. Looks like a good card for a change. Many winners but can't seem to cash.

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Saturday, July 27, 2019

Abbreviated Doghouse Confidential Posted for Jim Dandy Day, July 27

Posted a Doghouse Confidential for today. It is a new format with A and B horses listed in order. You can use the choices to make your own bets. I am concentrating on the Grand Slam and Pick 4's and Pick 5's.

As always, go to the Mr. X page and hit the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Monday, June 10, 2019

The Belmont turned out to be Exciting!

Nothing is better than winning except winning big!

We thought War of Will was over the top and likely is a 9f horse. Finished way back.

Little, athletic Sir Winston ran along the inside with an incredible ride by Joel Rosario until exploding in the stretch to win. Great price of $22. Tacitus ran on the outside all the way around. Jose Ortiz just didn't have an opportunity to get him to the rail. As a result, Tacitus ran 65 feet more than Sir Winston. Tacitus was a hard luck loser as the favorite, but good for the payoffs. Excellent $2 exacta of $96. We hit the safe bet, and I hit my bet of a $20 exacta box. Also used Bricks N Mortar for the double. Collected over $1200! Justice prevails after losing the Derby on the disqualification. Sometimes you win, and sometimes you win big!


Friday, June 7, 2019

Belmont Stakes Unexciting

Not close in the Preakness. Moving on.

Looks to me that 10 Tacitus and 9 War of Will have a great class edge over the rest of the field. Tacitus has been resting since the Derby, and our numbers showed that he can run forever at a constant pace. War of Will has done nothing wrong although our numbers showed that he couldn't get the 10f of the Derby. If you recall, he had every chance to win after the debacle, but faded in the last eighth of a mile. Casse says the horse has been doing great and actually gained weight since the Preakness win. I'm still skeptical that the horse can get the distance, and coupled with the tough campaign, I'm leaving him out. Do so at your own peril.

My second choice is the lightly raced 8 Intrepid Heart. Trained by Pletcher who does very well in the Belmont. Stumbled in the Peter Pan as the favorite, and he is a Tapit as is Tacitus. Johnny V. rides with blinkers on. Look for near or at the lead. Third choice is 7 Sir Winston who came from way back to finish almost five lengths in front of Intrepid Heart in the Peter Pan. The other horse trained by Casse and ridden by Rosario. Not the winning style for the Belmont.

Safe bet: $2 Exacta box: 10 with 7-8-9 = $12

Here is my bet:

$20 Exacta box: 10 with 7-8 = $80

Good luck!

Saturday, May 18, 2019

Correction

Sorry for the mistake, but Bodexpress is the 9 horse. Always check my numbers.

Friday, May 17, 2019

Preakness Stakes Selections

Still crying about our terrible Derby loss. Had the winner, bet against the Baffert horses, and all of the top five "original" winners met our numbers. Very tough way to lose when right about everything.

Here is my analysis of the Preakness. Very even group of horses where anyone can win except for a couple. Against Improbable again as the horse had no punch in the Derby and Baffert has been less than confident in his chances here.

I like the 7 Alwaysmining. A win machine stepping up. I expect him to be about 5 lengths back into the first turn then gradually move up and around the group. Should be a good price. 11 Laughing Fox is the Asmussen runner who has a good chance as well. Looks a little lesser, but may be improving. 2 Bourbon War missed the Derby and has been working well. A deep closer, but is rested. Chance on best. 8 Bodexpress hated the slop at Churchill but was second behind Maximum Security in the Florida Derby. Still a maiden.

Here is the safe bet: $2 exacta box: 2-7-8-11 = $24

Here is my bet: $50 win 7 = $50
$5 exacta box: 2-7-8-11 =  $60
$10 exacta: 7 over the 2-8-11 = $30
Total: $140

Good luck!
Mr. X

Friday, May 3, 2019

Kentucky Derby 2019 Doghouse Confidential Posted

It's going to be a mess tomorrow. I handicapped for mud, so don't worry.

I'm taking a shot with 7 Maximum Security, a Cinderella horse. Betting against all of the Baffert horses.

Read the complete analysis and betting strategies at Meet Mr. X. Just press the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

2019 Kentucky Derby Contenders Characterized

As I try to do every year, I have posted the win only contenders at Meet Mr. X. Just click the red Doghouse Confidential button.

This analysis is only designed to separate the horses that can win at 10f , the Derby distance. It does not consider any other handicapping including final time.

I will post a full analysis either on Friday night or Saturday morning. Looks like a very wet track again. Always seems to rain and make it difficult. Good luck!