Sunday, June 10, 2018

Sometimes You Get Lucky

Couldn't pass the race so bet a $20 exacta box with Justify and Hofburg. Payoff was only $180-200; not a great bet.

However, I covered my exacta bet by betting the $1trifecta with Justify and Hofburg coming first and third with all in the second slot for $16. Total bet was $56,

Jose Ortiz showed why he is the best by saving ground all the way after a slow start to get Gronkowski into second at 24-1.

Payoff was $229 for the $1tri. Better than my exactas. Sometimes you do get lucky!

Saturday, June 9, 2018

Triple Crown for Justify?

If there was ever a race where a superior horse was lined up against a bunch of second stringers, then this is the race. It is Justify's race to lose. Whether he can win for the 6th time in 111 days and get the mile and one-half are the only questions.

Our Derby horse, Audible, would have been a major threat if he were running, but Winstar Farm owns both Justify and Audible. It will mean millions to them in breeding rights if Justify wins the Triple Crown. Pletcher said that Audible was not training great so they decided to hold him out from the Belmont. When speaking about his horses, Pletcher has about the same credibility as Harvey Weinstein.

So we are left with Justify and a bunch of second stringers. The only horse that has a chance to win is Hofburg, but he is no bargain at 4-1. He is a Tapit, so the distance will not be a problem. Remember Tapwrit (a Tapit) won last year. Hofburg chased Audible home in the Florida Derby and finished three lengths back on a speed favoring track. Expect a big effort from Hofburg but up against it as deep closer.

Justify looks to cruise on or near the lead throughout and accelerate at the top of the stretch. Hofburg should close well to be second (or first if Justify can't make the distance).

If I bet the race, it will be an exacta box but no real value here. Good luck!

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Preakness?

Audible broke my heart just missing second. Handicappers said he had a bad trip/ride, but I didn't see it. No power or cable all weekend, and I was very surprised at the weather. On Friday night, I checked to see that there may be a shower, but that would be it. Shocked that it was a monsoon.

Today, it looks like a two-horse race in the slop again. So there is no value betting Justify and Good Magic who has a very legitimate chance to upset.

Lone Sailor has won in the slop and gets Irad for Tom Amoss. Tough trip in the Derby but will be closing.

Just to keep it interesting, here is what I will bet:

$10 exacta: Justify and Good Magic over Lone Sailor

Total: $20

Good luck!

Friday, May 4, 2018

Kentucky Derby 2018 Posted

I have just posted my analysis for tomorrow's big race. Hopefully the weather will hold out and it will be fast or at least good.

I like 5 Audible from Todd Pletcher. Seems to be in the right spot, but as always, you need a great deal of racing luck.

Go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

2018 Kentucky Derby Contenders Characterization

As I do every year, I categorize the contenders based on median energy distribution and last three furlong times. For the most part, this characterization has eliminated a number of good horses from contention because of the demanding Derby distance of 10f. Weather for Saturday looks good, although you never know.

Go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

This year, there are a number of win contenders meaning that this is a strong group of horses. Remember that this characterization does not include final times or any other handicapping, so it is only for horses that can run the 10f and have shown the ability to be able to win. Any horse can come second or third.

I will post my selections on Friday night or early Saturday. Good luck with the handicapping!

Mr. X

Saturday, August 26, 2017

Travers 2017 Quagmire

Amazing betting race if you like a horse. The only way I can make a case is to eliminate a number of horses that have done well previously, but don't seem to be at their peak now.

I will bet 5 Good Samaritan because of his Jim Dandy and numbers. He has to stay close. But my numbers say that he will love the distance.  Looks like the winner. 3 West Coast looks to be improving and has great numbers to like the 10f distance. Major shot.

10 Irap looks to be improving as well. I think he will like the distance although not as positive as the top two. 4 Tapwrit has been training up to the race; he looks like a horse that runs all day as in the Belmont, but I'm not sure he has the punch for the 10f. Also concerning is that the horse ran badly at the Spa although it was his first race ever. Still a cause for concern.

The pace is very muddled for the race although I have to expect Always Dreaming to go to the lead. Let's hope that there isn't a scramble for the lead and traffic troubles with the twelve horses in the race.

The Bet:

Win: 5    Exbx: 5-3  Exbx: 3-5/10-4

Good luck!

Friday, June 9, 2017

Belmont Stakes 2017 Confused

I really don't like this race at all. Seems like there are horses that have disappointed, a bunch of deep clunkers, and a few that don't belong. Hard to like Irish War Cry after his Derby and my numbers that say that he can't go 10f. But this is 12f with an entirely different pace favoring horses that run evenly with a good crusing speed. Motion wouldn't have put him in the race unless he knew that the horse wanted to run. Still  hard to like as the favorite.

Chad Brown has the rail with a lesser Twisted Tom. Brown looks like he pointed this horse for the race. Working well. I would like Patch more but don't like the 12 post.

But I would rather take a shot with a lightly raced horse instead of this group of very undependable and inconsistent horses. So my money will be on 9 Meantime. Brian Lynch is an excellent trainer, and the horse hasn't run on a fast track at a route. Has a very good work at Belmont on May 27. Raced in the Peter Pan at Belmont and failed while leading on a sealed track. Jose Ortiz left and will be on the Pletcher horse, Tapwrit. But we inherit Mike Smith, not too shabby in a big race.

Admittedly, I am taking a longshot. But when you don't have a good feel for the race, you might as well take a chance on perhaps an improving horse.

Here is the bet:

$30 win 9 = $30
$5 exacta box 1-7-9 = $30
$10 exacta 9 over 1-7-12= $30
$2 exacta box 9 with 2-6-10-12 = $16

Total $116

Good luck!