Saturday, September 4, 2010

Doghouse Posted for Sunday, September 5, 2010

Another Doghouse has been posted. Just go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Have taken a nosedive lately, so tread with caution. The races are very contentious, and some of the races are bad with inconsistent animals.

In any event, the weather has been glorious and looks to continue that way through Labor Day. Much cooler which is what the horsies like.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Doghouse Posted for Sunday, August 29, 2010

Posted the Sunday Doghouse at Meet Mr. X. Not a great card so take it easy.

Rachel is no cinch at 10f. I'm expecting her to get beat.

Not doing so well all of a sudden. Now down for the meet after a very bad day Friday which was the 25th anniversary of the Doghouse Confidential.

Did hit a saver exacta in the Travers, so made a few bucks.

Good luck.

Mr. X

Friday, August 27, 2010

Travers Spot Play, Saturday, August 28, 2010

Interesting match up of horses from the Haskell and the Jim Dandy. Most of the pundits think that the Haskell was the stronger race. My numbers say that the Jim Dandy was the better race.

5 A Little Warm looks like the horse to beat. Won the Jim Dandy in good time, but has the right energy distribution to go the 10 furlongs. The main danger is 8 Fly Down who closed well at 36.6 seconds for the last three furlongs even though he took up sharply in the stretch.

All the other horses seem to be well-matched. But I like some longshots to close, maybe hit the exacta, and hopefully fill out the trifecta. 7 Afleet Express has good numbers to close with a good final time in the Jim Dandy. I can't dismiss 6 Ice Box who has showed nothing since his win in the Florida Derby which I cashed. But he had great numbers in that race and hit the gate in the Haskell. I'm looking for him to bounce back. The final horse is the dark one, 3 Admiral Alex. With only one start, his energy distribution and final 3 furlong times are very good. In fact, he had the second best closing time. While his final time wasn't great, he could improve and surprise by getting in the money.

The bet:

Ex: 5-8 with 3-6-7

Exbx: 5-8

Tri: 5-8 with 3-5-6-7-8 with 3-5-6-7-8

Good luck!

Mr. X

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Friday, Minerals Track Day, August 27, 2010

Friday is Minerals Day and the birthday of the Doghouse Confidential. This is the day that it began back in 1986.

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Didn't listen to myself yesterday. On the Doghouse in the 7th race, there was a scratch of one of the key horses. Instead of moving up my selections, I checked the board at the track and used the favorite which I didn't like in the first place. Turned out to be a $112 exacta and a $1050 triple (both missed). Hope someone had it from the sheet.

Weather is gorgeous and will get hot next week. Better than rain.

Good luck to everyone, especially my old friends and colleagues at Minerals.

Mr. X

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Doghouse Posted for Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Posted the Doghouse for Wednesday. Difficult to handicap because races may be taken off the turf.

Not many horses in the early races either.

As always, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Will likely post another Doghouse for Friday.

Still positive although less so for the meet.

Good luck.

Mr. X

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Wednesday, August 18 Doghouse Posted

Just posted the Doghouse for Wednesday. Note that the date on the Doghouse is wrong - says August 16 instead of August 18.

Doing very well since Thursday. Hit ten $1 triples out of twenty triple bets. Don't wake me up.

As always, go to Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

More positive for the meet.

Mr. X

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Sunday Doghouse Posted - August 15, 2010

Posted Sunday's Doghouse Confidential at Meet Mr. X.

Hit a couple of exacta's and two triples to bail me out (last race was not on the Doghouse).

Really not a good card for Sunday. Many maidens again.

Still positive for the meet. The weather is just fantastic.

Good luck.

Mr. X

Friday, August 13, 2010

Doghouse Posted for Saturday, August 14, 2010

Posted the Doghouse at Meet Mr. X.

Very poor card for a Saturday. Too many maiden races and the other dirt races are very weak and difficult.

Still positive for the meet.

Good luck.

Mr. X

Doghouse to be Posted for Saturday, August 14

The Doghouse will be posted before 10 am tomorrow.

Had a great day yesterday hitting three triples and a $23 horse to win.

Mr. X

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Doghouse Posted for Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Just posted the Doghouse Confidential with two Ticketmaker pages for the early Pik 4 and the late Pik 3.

Go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Miracles of miracles - still positive for the meet.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Doghouse for Wednesday, August 11 to be Posted

Will post either late tonight or before 10 am tomorrow.

Mr. X

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Doghouse Posted for Sunday, August 1, 2010

I have posted the first Doghouse for Saratoga. Go to the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.

Watch for speed on dirt to hold today.

Been doing well. Gave a bit back yesterday, but positive for the meet.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Friday, June 4, 2010

Belmont Stakes Doghouse Posted

Not a great race by any means. Looks like a few good ones that will be overbet and a bunch of tryers trying to get a check.

I have to stay with Ice Box to win. He can get the distance, but does have the wrong running style. Will be overbet, but the likely winner.

Click on the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.

Good Luck!

Mr. X

Friday, May 14, 2010

Preakness Doghouse Posted

It's lucky number 7 Lookin At Lucky who finally has a good post. But he's no cinch.

Click on the red Doghouse Confidential button at Meet Mr. X.

In the Derby, we had everything right except the winner. Didn't meet our criteria and didn't like him to win at all after the race at Tampa Bay. Mud is a great equalizer. Our horse, Ice Box, should have won but blocked countless times by a not so great jockey ride.

Great weather finally for a big race. Have fun!

Mr. X

Friday, April 30, 2010

Final Doghouse Kentucky Derby 2010 Posted

Here we go again. Making it more difficult with the weather.

It is 2 Ice Box by default. He is the only one of our three original contenders who didn't scratch.

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Derby Horses Updated

I have updated the list of horses with the scratches and the new horses. Go to the bottom of Meet Mr. X.

Also, I have posted the horses by post and by tier to get a better picture of the contenders and where they will be starting from.

The weather looks atrocious so with the two favorites in bad posts, we could have a major chaos race.

Check back for the final analysis. Tough to find a winner with the scratches of horses that we liked.

Mr. X

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Kentucky Derby 2010 Preliminary Analysis Posted

Mr. X was a phone in guest on "Trackfacts Live" this past Sunday explaining the theory and listing the tiers of current contenders.

I have posted the charts that I used on the show at the bottom of Meet Mr. X. See Kentucky Derby 2010 Analysis.

Remember that the choices are only preliminary, but with the major preps being over, we can categorize the contenders. I will post the final Doghouse on the night before or the day of the Derby.

Mr. X

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Cashed in Florida Derby

Cashed a $1 tri when our longshot 8 Ice Box nipped another of our longshots, 4 Pleasant Prince, to win the Florida Derby. Our $1 ticket came back $1,222; not bad, but light considering that we had a 20-1 over a 25-1 over the favorite. But we'll take it.

Didn't back up the win bet ($43.40) or bet a 10 cent superfecta ($1,523) which we had. The $1 superfecta paid over $15,000!

Can't go back, so we are happy to cash our first big race of the 2010 season. Let's see if we can keep it up.

Mr. X

Friday, March 19, 2010

Florida Derby, Saturday, March 20, 2010

Yes, I am alive and well and back from Florida where I went to Tampa Bay for the Derby but left before the race. Too many people and too small a plant to handle it.

In the Florida Derby, I like two horses to win: 7 Rule and a longshot 8 Ice Box. Rule is trained by Pletcher and wants the lead, but is not likely to get it with Game On and First Dude and maybe Miners Rescue. But he does look like an improving horse, has the best final time although helped by the Tampa Bay track and good energy distribution at 8.5F. But he hasn't been 9F and may need the lead. Will be overbet. The other intriguing horse is 8 Ice Box who is likely to go off at 10 to 1 or more. Ice Box is the more experienced of the Zito horses, has been 9F twice and didn't have a good trip in last. But his race before in January puts him in the mix and possible longshot winner.

Here is my bet:

Exbx: 7-8

Tri: 7-8 with 2-4-7-8-9-11 with 2-4-7-8-9-11. Will leave out the 9 if no scratches.

Good luck. Stay tuned for Derby analysis in the near future.

Mr. X