Friday, June 9, 2017

Belmont Stakes 2017 Confused

I really don't like this race at all. Seems like there are horses that have disappointed, a bunch of deep clunkers, and a few that don't belong. Hard to like Irish War Cry after his Derby and my numbers that say that he can't go 10f. But this is 12f with an entirely different pace favoring horses that run evenly with a good crusing speed. Motion wouldn't have put him in the race unless he knew that the horse wanted to run. Still  hard to like as the favorite.

Chad Brown has the rail with a lesser Twisted Tom. Brown looks like he pointed this horse for the race. Working well. I would like Patch more but don't like the 12 post.

But I would rather take a shot with a lightly raced horse instead of this group of very undependable and inconsistent horses. So my money will be on 9 Meantime. Brian Lynch is an excellent trainer, and the horse hasn't run on a fast track at a route. Has a very good work at Belmont on May 27. Raced in the Peter Pan at Belmont and failed while leading on a sealed track. Jose Ortiz left and will be on the Pletcher horse, Tapwrit. But we inherit Mike Smith, not too shabby in a big race.

Admittedly, I am taking a longshot. But when you don't have a good feel for the race, you might as well take a chance on perhaps an improving horse.

Here is the bet:

$30 win 9 = $30
$5 exacta box 1-7-9 = $30
$10 exacta 9 over 1-7-12= $30
$2 exacta box 9 with 2-6-10-12 = $16

Total $116

Good luck!

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Derby Results and Preakness

We had the winner in Always Dreaming. The horse relaxed and John Velasquez is the best in guiding a horse home. Surprised that he was the favorite, but we'll take it. As we thought, there was no benefit in betting the exacta because I just couldn't find even a few that I wanted to bet along with the winner. So we bet the triples in what we thought was a wide open race. My triples included 13 horses out of twenty, and none of those came either first or second! In any event, the safe bet won, and I profited over $100 with the win bet even though I lost $132 on the triples. Not bad but not great for picking the winner in a twenty horse field.

We were right on just about everything with regard to the energy distribution and last three furlong times. We threw out Irish War Cry as only a 9f horse with a slow Wood Memorial. It looked like he would go by Always Dreaming at the top of the stretch, but flattened out badly. McCraken didn't show anything either even though he was working well at Churchill. Classic Empire had a bad trip, but he wasn't going to beat the winner on this day. Seems like we were right but didn't cash big.

Unfortunately, I will not be able to handicap the Preakness comprehensively. I did take a quick look and don't see anyone beating Always Dreaming with the exception of Classic Empire who deserves another chance. Not sure that there is any value in the race. I do think that Always Dreaming has tactical advantage and hope to see him go for the Triple Crown at Belmont. I do think he is that good against this bunch of three year olds.

Good luck and hope you cashed in the Derby.

Mr. X


Friday, May 5, 2017

2017 Kentucky Derby Selections Posted

Just posted my final analysis along with my characterizations of the group based on final closing times and energy distribution.

Don't love anyone, but my key horse by default is 5 Always Dreaming. Hopefully, I can get him into the win or place hole. Betting to win and triples because I can't separate the exacta horses.

As always, go the the Meet Mr. X page and hit the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck. Hope everyone comes home safe.

Mr. X

Wednesday, May 3, 2017

2017 Kentucky Derby Probables Characterized

As I do every year, I have posted my analysis of the Derby horses' ability to run the 10 furlongs of the Derby distance.

These calculations do not consider any handicapping or final time, only the ability to go beyond 9 furlongs to the Derby distance.

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page, and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button. I will post my Derby selections and betting strategies on Friday night or early on Saturday.

Good luck!

Mr. X