2017 Kentucky Derby Selections Posted

Just posted my final analysis along with my characterizations of the group based on final closing times and energy distribution.

Don't love anyone, but my key horse by default is 5 Always Dreaming. Hopefully, I can get him into the win or place hole. Betting to win and triples because I can't separate the exacta horses.

As always, go the the Meet Mr. X page and hit the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck. Hope everyone comes home safe.

Mr. X

2017 Kentucky Derby Probables Characterized

As I do every year, I have posted my analysis of the Derby horses' ability to run the 10 furlongs of the Derby distance.

These calculations do not consider any handicapping or final time, only the ability to go beyond 9 furlongs to the Derby distance.

As always, go to the Meet Mr. X page, and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button. I will post my Derby selections and betting strategies on Friday night or early on Saturday.

Good luck!

Mr. X

Late Pick 4 Posted for Saturday's Breeder's Cup

Just posted the late Pick 4, betting against the Euros and leaning toward speed, NY horses, and Santa Anita horses for courses. Really like 2 Haveyougoneaway in the 10th. Won two at Saratoga and looks to be in the right spot. Tough to go against California Chrome, but Arrogate may be the new Secretariat. Bet both in the Pick 4.

Go to the Meet Mr. X and click on the red Doghouse Confidential button.

Good luck!

Notes on Friday's Breeder's Cup Races

Didn't win a Breeder's Cup race (although uncharacteristically very conservative) and fell short of the Pick 4 when Dortmund didn't run his race. Had the other three. Coincidentally, I bet an exacta with the winner and Dortmund, but didn't include him on the ticket. Can't bet them all. I did hit an exacta on an earlier race and never looked at the exacta payoffs on Beholder which were very generous. Didn't bet the race figuring the prices would be too short.

As I suspected, the track (both dirt and especially the turf) is too hard for the Europeans. I will throw them all out with the exception of Found who I really don't like in the mile and one-half turf race, but he has won over $7 million. Some really good horses aren't going to win because of the turf feeling like the Thruway. They won't be able to make up a lot of ground in the stretch.

On Saturday, bet the front runners or close to the front on both dirt and turf and lean toward the Saratoga and Santa Anita horses.Don't know if I will post the late Pick 4 yet. Have way too many horses. Good luck!

Breeder's Cup Pick 4 Posted for Friday, November 4

It is difficult to pick any winner of any Breeder's Cup race. So I'm trying to pick four in a row.

Just posted the Pick 4 starting with Race 6 for Friday night. Singling Dortmund in the dirt mile. Songbird is no cinch against Stellar Wind and Beholder, so all are included as A's in the last leg (9th).

Go to the red Doghouse Confidential button on the Meet Mr. X page.

Races are ridiculously difficult, especially with the foreign horses that I thought weren't coming. Stick to the Saratoga horses and the Santa Anita horses that love that course, both dirt and turf.

Don't know if I will post any picks for Saturday, but I'll try.

Good luck!

Labor Day Results

Had many winners, particularly triples, on the Doghouse Confidential. For some reason, I was conservative, and it cost me a very good triple in the second race.

Here are my results for the day:

hit the early pick 5 singling two horses, hit the late pick 4 and pick 3, and hit two triples.

Plus for the day: $65! Yikes!

Remember you need to bet right! About even for the meet, so I'll take it.

Hope everyone cashed more than I did and came home with some money.

Mr. X

Correction on the Fifth Race

Unfortunately, I made an error. The 10 horse in the fifth race should be changed to the 11 horse.

Also, I forgot to detail the Grand Slam starting in the 7th race:

Grand Slam: 4-5-2-4/6

Good luck!