If there was ever a race where a superior horse was lined up against a bunch of second stringers, then this is the race. It is Justify's race to lose. Whether he can win for the 6th time in 111 days and get the mile and one-half are the only questions.
Our Derby horse, Audible, would have been a major threat if he were running, but Winstar Farm owns both Justify and Audible. It will mean millions to them in breeding rights if Justify wins the Triple Crown. Pletcher said that Audible was not training great so they decided to hold him out from the Belmont. When speaking about his horses, Pletcher has about the same credibility as Harvey Weinstein.
So we are left with Justify and a bunch of second stringers. The only horse that has a chance to win is Hofburg, but he is no bargain at 4-1. He is a Tapit, so the distance will not be a problem. Remember Tapwrit (a Tapit) won last year. Hofburg chased Audible home in the Florida Derby and finished three lengths back on a speed favoring track. Expect a big effort from Hofburg but up against it as deep closer.
Justify looks to cruise on or near the lead throughout and accelerate at the top of the stretch. Hofburg should close well to be second (or first if Justify can't make the distance).
If I bet the race, it will be an exacta box but no real value here. Good luck!